The details of the liquidation data suggest that the short-term market is willing to “strike the top” | Crypto Derivatives Weekly

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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the weekly derivatives report, and how to interpret it?

Futures (Bitcoin)

The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.

Liquidation Overview

Last week (August 9th to August 15th), the Bitcoin market had twists and turns. The rapid rise at the beginning of the week followed by a fall. However, it regained its gains in the middle and later part of the week and set a new high again in the near future. The market is biased. The strong pattern has not changed, but considering that the unilateral rise performance of last week and the previous two weeks is different, whether the market sentiment will produce some negative fluctuations is worthy of attention.

The repetition of the market in a strong area last week did not trigger a large liquidation. This was mainly due to the fact that the market had created a strong atmosphere before and did not turn around. Therefore, the amount of liquidation last week was compared with The previous week further declined. From the previous statistical cycle, the liquidation value of 1 billion US dollars fell to 857 million US dollars, and the liquidation volume of the whole week hit a new low in nearly a month. The situation of concentrated liquidation during a certain period of the week is also relatively limited. Only in the early morning of August 14 during a rapid rise, the liquidation volume exceeded 100 million U.S. dollars in two hours.

However, it is worth noting that under the circumstance that the market remained relatively strong, it was a wave of rising prices that led to the largest concentration of liquidation during the week. This shows that short-term market participants have begun to reverse the willingness to “strike the top”. Obviously strengthened, the short-term market long and short disputes are still quite fierce.

Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew

Trading volume

Bitcoin futures trading volume dropped slightly last week, but although the trading volume has continued to decline in the last two weeks, compared with the dull market in July, it still maintains a considerable increase in popularity. The data is still in the bull market in the first half of this year. Above the average level in the process, since the market did not experience particularly large abnormal fluctuations during the week, the performance is relatively stable from the point of view of single-day data.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

Contract holdings continued to maintain the “success” achieved in the past period of steadily rising. This value has remained above US$15 billion throughout the week, setting a new high since the 5.19 sharp drop that led to a cliff-like decline in holdings. The maintenance of the market in the relatively strong area effectively protects the continuous accumulation of open interest. However, since this value cannot reflect the direction of the open position, it is not ruled out that the increase in short-term top willingness will lead to the possibility of increasing the total open interest due to the increase in short-term strikes. Therefore, for the time being, this data will not be simply interpreted as an optimistic signal of a bullish outlook.

skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest (1).png Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew

Futures (Ethereum)

The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.

Liquidation Overview

Last week (August 9th to August 15th) Ethereum’s disk performance was similar to that of Bitcoin. During the week, K followed a trend similar to an “N” shape, setting a new high point again.

The liquidation volume of Ethereum futures contracts has decreased simultaneously in the past week, and the total liquidation volume in a single week has dropped from US$723 million to US$521 million. Compared with Bitcoin’s “distribution of liquidation”, the liquidation situation of Ethereum contracts last week The occurrence was more balanced, and there was no obvious centralized liquidation in a short period of time during the week.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew

Trading volume

The trading volume of Ethereum futures contracts fell slightly last week, and it did not continue the continuous upward momentum of the previous three weeks. From the perspective of single-day trading volume performance, the daily trading volume of Ethereum contracts last week showed a unilateral downward trend. Operation, the single-day trading volume on August 14 hit a new low in the month, a drop of more than 50% from the peak in early August.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

The Ethereum contract holdings did not fall in sync with the transaction volume, but maintained a sustained upward momentum similar to that of Bitcoin. At present, the Ethereum contract holdings have recovered more than half of the decline caused by the 5.19 drop. This performance is comparable to that of Bitcoin. The currency is stronger. However, as mentioned above, because this kind of position data cannot show the details of the direction, it is only believed that the recent rise in the popularity of Ethereum is more obvious, but it cannot be simply interpreted as the market’s optimism.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew

Options (Bitcoin)

The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.

Trading volume

Bitcoin options trading volume rebounded slightly last week, and it is now basically back to the level of the last week of July, and there has not been a sharp drop immediately after the monthly contract expires. The trading volume data of options has remained at 5.19 since the second week of the sharp drop High point level.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

Bitcoin option holdings increased simultaneously last week, and have now recovered almost all of the decline since mid-to-late May, and the rapid growth momentum of this value has continued in the recent period. Considering that after the expiration of the monthly contract, this value will soon fill the gap of this “passive reduction”, this is a very obvious signal of the rise in the popularity of options.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew

Volatility

In the latest statistical cycle, there is still no significant change in the realized volatility index. Don’t do too much interpretation, while the implied volatility index has dropped significantly compared to the previous week. The rapid rise of the market made a very “positive” feedback. However, in this case, the implied volatility fell down immediately. It also shows that the market’s expectations for the short-term market volatility are relatively limited. This week’s market may return to a relative Operate in a stable condition.

skew_btcusd_realized_volatility (1).png Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew

skew_btc_atm_implied_volatility (1).png Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew

PCR

In the past week, the Bitcoin trading volume PCR trend has flattened, and the open interest PCR ushered in a long-lost rebound performance. Although the two indicators are still running at relatively low points during the year, the purely numerically bearish direction still exists, but the open interest The rebound performance of quantitative PCR that has not been seen for a long time is worth paying attention to. If it can strengthen further in the next few weeks, it may form a very important inflection point.

skew_btc_putcall_ratios (1).png Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew

Option expiration

The expiration volume of Bitcoin options contracts on Friday is about 11,100, and the number of expiring contracts within this week is limited, which may push the volume of options holdings higher.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew

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