The new year has begun. As usual, after writing the year-end summary for 2020, we should look forward to the cryptocurrency world in 2021 and what are worthy of attention (qian).
01 BTC
No way, not just a summary or a prospect, the first thing to mention must be him.
In the last two months of 2020, BTC proved with practical actions that all smart contracts, mainstream, copycats, BCH and BSV are all younger brothers.
Ever since, readers who do not have BTC in their hands face a very embarrassing situation at the beginning of 2021-buy it. Last year, more than 3,000 BTC did not buy, and this year 30,000 BTC was too unwilling to buy. Don’t buy it. In 2021, there will be basically a bull market for institutions. All analysts will see 50,000-100,000 US dollars, or even higher. Their messy Token may not be able to beat BTC.
You have to ask me what to do, I don’t know the truth. I can only say that if you have pie in your hand, don’t be fooled into getting out of the car. If you don’t have a pie, consider buying something if you have a bigger callback. If you don’t, it depends on whether you are fat or not, dare to rush. .
As a well-known big V said, the Bitcoin bull market this time may be different from the past. It is a “bright bull from the West”. All financial report information is open and transparent, and the addresses of all institutions’ wallets can be checked. In a themed video of the Wall Street Journal at the end of 2020, it even shouted “That’s made Bitcoin essentially a hedge against the dollar” (which made Bitcoin essentially a hedge against the dollar).
So maybe the 35% or more retracement of the previous two bull markets may no longer exist. The two previous bull markets ended and the squat that Bitcoin plummeted by more than 80% may also cease to exist. The opening of the institutional bull market may be the same as gold’s adoption of ETFs in the past. It has begun to slow, long-term but stable slow bull market.
In 2021, whether your asset portfolio or an operation can pass the whole position of BTC hoarding is still a lingering “shadow” in the hearts of players in every circle.
All in all, in 2021, hold the pie in your hand!
02 ETH and DeFi
If BTC will surrender in front of all cryptocurrencies in 2020.
ETH’s 2020 is to make all the “Ethereum killers” kneel under their feet and become “Ethereum friends”.
To put it simply, look at those public chains that are not compatible with ETH, especially the old generation of EOS, TRX, Quantum Chain, and IOST that were once known as the killers of Ethereum. The price of the whole year in 2020, you will understand.
The new generation of several star public chains: Polkadot, Near, Solana, will be compatible with the Ethereum EVM through Bridge.
Even more exaggerated is that both Binance Smart Chain BSC and Huobi’s upcoming public chain have tried their own solutions. Binance started using the Cosmos SDK and Huobi cooperated with Nervos. In the end, they both chose Fork Ether. The wallet can use Metamask directly, the browser is exactly the same as Etherscan, the price query of tokens and Uniswap info is also 100% re-engraved, DApp migration only needs to change the code slightly…
See a big V saying:
“In any country, the so-called financial modernization must basically do the following: 1. There is a central bank (like the Federal Reserve); 2. Commercial banks; 3. Stock exchanges; 4. Electronic payment (like our UnionPay, credit card) And Alipay etc.).
Each blockchain has realized decentralized payment electronic. But only Ethereum has replicated the decentralized central bank (MakerDao); the decentralized commercial bank (Compound); and the decentralized stock exchange (uniswap).
Most chains now only have the function of local currency and transfer, and there are few complete chains that issue Tokens (ie securities), let alone the central bank behind them. “
The popularity of DeFi this year has allowed ETH to find a narrative that is completely different from that of Asia in 2017. Although the price is only half of the 17-year high, whether it is the number of assets on the chain or the data called by the contract, it has been compared to 17 years. With the exponential improvement, the bubble brought by Aixiou has basically disappeared, and ETH is moving forward steadily step by step.
Regarding ETH, there are two points that need attention in 2021:
1. Rollup-V God has basically set the tone, the original sharding plan of ETH2.0 is “shelved indefinitely”, and rollup is used for expansion.
2. EIP1559-There has always been a dream in the circle, that is, there is a Token that can pull the coin king BTC from the throne of market value. At present, if a project can succeed, then the probability is ETH. After all, the imagination brought by smart contracts will exceed the store of value in the long run.
However, under the premise of such an explosion of DeFi this year, the price growth of ETH appears to be slow. The fundamental reason is that ETH’s value capture in the DeFi ecosystem is too weak, and ETH itself lacks the function of value storage. Before EIP1559, many articles in vernacular have been introduced, so I won’t be burdensome again. In 2021, if the implementation of EIP1559 can be seen, I believe the price of ETH may soar again.
It is foreseeable that DeFi in 2021 will continue to evolve from the current sixth-generation products, including fixed-rate borrowings, derivatives based on Rebase and Layer 2, and so on. You will see more projects in the traditional financial circle, especially the “blockchainization” of Internet finance, as well as more purely encrypted native DeFi projects, and the latter is undoubtedly more worth looking forward to.
03 Layer 2 and the new public chain
Layer 2 has been useless from 17 years to the present, after 3 years, whether it is a channel, a side chain, or a Plasma, you are almost inaccessible in the DeFi world.
The only “large-scale application” is the domestic light road printing, which is liked by V God Twitter every day. However, it is of no use. Look at the two-digit daily activity of LRC DEX, which is expensive and slower than Uniswap next door but the 5-digit daily activity, you can only sigh…
The biggest problem of Layer 2 is that they are fighting each other, which is extremely confusing. The technical characteristics of each expansion plan are different, and even if the technical characteristics are the same, there are various sub-categories, such as Rollup has Zk-Rollup, OPtimistic Rollup, Validium, under each sub-category, there are several different companies developing their own…
The new public chain is currently essentially the same as Layer 2. Before its ecology is gone, you can only obediently become an “Ethereum friend” and use yourself as an Ethereum side chain. Enough users, enough developers, and enough projects can slowly get rid of the Ethereum ecosystem.
In 2021, it is difficult to imagine that DeFi will continue to cost more than ten dollars, and the handling fees of dozens of dollars will continue to operate like this. The solution of Layer 2 or the new public chain is imminent.
Layer 2 interoperability, there should be no hope in 2021, so the 1-2 plan is the most likely scenario. Among them, there are several plans worth looking forward to.
1. Near’s Rainbow Bridge-After ETH2.0 abandoned fragmentation, Near can be said to be the leader in fragmentation technology.
2. Polkadot bridges ETH-probably no one in this world understands ETH better than Gavin Wood.
3. Uniswap V3 and AC empire-in the case that Layer 2 is temporarily unable to communicate, the DeFi core project’s right to speak for the Layer 2 solution will gradually become prominent. Currently, the two largest forces in DeFi are undoubtedly Uniswap and AC created The DeFi Empire, Uniswap V3 and the Layer 2 solution used by the AC Empire in the future are likely to be important bargaining chips for ETH Layer 2.
In the new public chain, Polkadot’s parachain auctions and Polkadot’s original ecological projects have been launched one after another, which is bound to be one of the highlights not to be missed in 2021. Polkadot can be said to be the only new public chain that acts as an “ETH friend” but has never given up and is qualified to be called an “ETH killer”.
Another new public chain that deserves attention is undoubtedly Dfinity. Today, when DApps are unpopular and DeFi is popular, the original dream of World Computer, ETH, may be realized by Dfinity. At the previous Dfinity conference, the team demonstrated “Decentralization The open source software “CanCan”, the open source software CanCan, uses only 1,000 lines of code, which is really shocking. I hope that Dfinity can bring a completely different experience to the world of DApp.
04 Algorithmic stablecoin
A few weeks ago, I wrote an article “During the endless and rapid evolution of DeFi, the skyrocketing algorithmic stablecoin is just a carnival for a few people? 》A detailed introduction to the current popular generations of algorithmic stablecoins. Readers who have read that article and studied carefully should have gained Pufeng in the past two weeks, especially the early players who participated in the Basis and other imitations of Basis. The myth of 10 times a week and 10 times a day has long been spread in various groups.
What is even more exaggerated is that algorithmic stablecoins such as Basis and ESD, while enjoying the price increase, as long as the price stays above $1, dividends will be distributed every day. There is an investor in the circle who bought nearly 1,000 BAS at a low price. In the last few days, he woke up every day and received tens of thousands of dollars in Rebase. He was already “useless” by everyone.
On the bright side, algorithmic stablecoins may be the “Holy Grail” of the crypto world. It can even be said that a successful algorithmic stablecoin is more in line with the vision of a “peer-to-peer electronic cash system” described in the Bitcoin white paper than BTC.
Especially coupled with the recent SEC’s allegations that USDT may be defined as “securities”, and the current limited scale of DAI, the crypto world wants to have a “purely encrypted native” and freely scalable, rather than traditional assets or crypto Asset-backed stable currency.
From a bad point of view, algorithmic stablecoins may be another wave of air hype. Many Basis imitation disk liquidity mining daily chemicals are 20 or 30 points, and the annualization is usually thousands or even tens of thousands, even Basis master disks. Recently, the daily chemical of the BAC-DAI mining pool has been stable at 2-3 points per day, and the dividend of BAS Boardroom has stabilized at about ten points per day, which is not even the nearly 10 times increase of BAS itself in two weeks…
At the same time, all the algorithmic stablecoins on the market, from AMPL to ESD to BASIS, have not yet found a use case as a “stable currency”, and more are just participating in the game of human nature as a speculative product. Of course, strictly speaking, BTC actually went through the same process in its earliest stages.
Therefore, in 2021, which algorithmic stable currency can find the “out-of-circle” use scenario, which is adopted by various DeFi protocols, which can achieve a market value of more than 1 billion, has massive liquidity, and which can achieve the largest user consensus , Is one of the “big events in the circle” that is definitely worth looking forward to,
05Middleware, NFT, storage, privacy
Middleware, Link, GRT, KP3R may be the best representatives.
Needless to say Link, in 2020, everyone will know the importance of the oracle to the blockchain industry.
GRT meets the huge demand of the Web3 builder community to query the local information of the ETH blockchain in a fast and usable format.
Kp3R is a work platform that helps developers create a “continuous state machine”, a brand-new field that addresses the natural defects of smart contracts.
In 2021, we are likely to see more of these tools and modular components. As blockchain middleware, such components often have huge potential, because once they are widely adopted, it is equivalent to using a huge business Support, Link’s 100-fold myth in the past two years, and GRT’s investment return several times when it opened, I believe that many people still vividly remember it.
In the NFT field, when “Bubble Mart” was listed with a valuation of nearly 100 billion, the word blind box has penetrated almost all fields of society, and the encryption field is no exception. MEME has become the encrypted version of “Bubble Mart” in the circle.
In 2021, we look forward to seeing more NFT applications, from virtual items in games to concert tickets, etc., as well as insurance projects such as AC’s earliest insurance projects, insurance NFTs, etc. I don’t know about STO and DeFi in 2021. How the combination will develop, I look forward to seeing more off-chain assets mapped into the blockchain in the form of on-chain NFTs, or on-chain native NFTs are projected off-chain in a similar way, Either way.
As for storage, it seems that after Filecoin goes online, it can’t cause much splash. The reason is that there is still too little data on the blockchain, and it is not large enough to require distributed storage. All storage projects are calm. . In 2021, it may be too early to see storage take off.
As for privacy, it seems that the past gray usage scenarios that Monroe leans on stand out. With the widespread application of DeFi in 2020, the demand for user privacy protection is bound to increase in 2021. At present, the privacy application tornado.cash on ETH is becoming more and more well-known, and it is believed that AMM products with anonymous functions in 21 years may also be born.
