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On January 16, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (January 6th-January 12th). In the latest statistical cycle, BTC once achieved a historic breakthrough to the 40,000 integer mark, but in the first half of the statistics After the cycle showed a wave of acceleration, there was a sharp correction in the second half of the statistical period, and at the end of the statistical period, the full take-back of this small round of gains was completed, and this was also experienced for nearly two months. After the unilateral rise, a statistical cycle with almost no actual gains finally appeared. Will the market regard this as a signal of an inflection point? Can the highly consistent trend of chasing growth in the last statistical cycle continue? The position adjustment performance of various accounts in this statistical period is very exciting.
The number of total positions (total open positions) in the latest data has further increased from 11,296 to 12,039. The rebound momentum in the previous statistical cycle has continued, short-term market enthusiasm has risen further, and sharp corrections have occurred during the statistical cycle. There was no panic lightening situation.
In terms of sub-data, the large-scale asset management institutions’ long positions fell from 793 to 733. This value fell for the first time in the past four weeks. The short position was emptied, and the value of 0 appeared again after five weeks. Although this type of account did not carry out further increase in long positions in the latest statistical period, the performance of emptying short positions greatly weakened the short-term effect of small reductions in long positions. From the position of large institutions in the latest statistical period From the perspective of adjustment performance, this type of account still maintains a fairly clear continuing bullish attitude, and it is not considered that the turning point has been reached, but the suspension of continuing to increase long may mean that large institutions have indeed begun to take risk control.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts rebounded from 3,544 to 4,107, getting rid of the nearly 13-week low in the previous statistical period, and the short position increased from 9,058 to 9,602. After the leveraged fund conducted a very clear net air-conditioning position in the last statistical cycle, there has been a significant change in thinking in the latest statistical cycle. The continuous and rapid rise in the market has prompted such accounts to decisively “abandon” the contrarian shorting idea and switch back. In the situation of simultaneous increase of long and short positions, this kind of position increase is a representative bullish adjustment performance of leveraged funds. It can be considered that the correction of the market in the latest statistical cycle has not affected the restart of such accounts to catch up. “Determination”, the two types of institutional investors have returned to a unified bullish front.
In terms of large holdings, long positions fell from 2,672 to 2,522, and short positions further increased from 261 to 373. In the latest statistical cycle, large accounts have carried out a very clear net air-conditioning warehouse. Different from the attitude of too many accounts in the above two types of institutions, the performance of large accounts in this statistical period is obviously felt by this round of inverted market conditions. The potential risk of rising and falling, as a category of accounts that are not keen on clear one-way position adjustments and most of the time only conduct long and short two-way simultaneous position adjustments, the accuracy of the judgment of large accounts on the inflection point can become a follow-up for some time in the future. Enter one of the focuses of attention.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions rose sharply from 3343 to 3676, and short positions fell from 774 to 633. In the latest statistical cycle, retail investors have performed similarly to large accounts. Such accounts have performed a clear net long position adjustment under the high market heat. Although this general direction judgment is similar to the previous two types of institutional investors Similar, but institutional accounts have not carried out such a radical net long position adjustment. In the previous statistical periods, brokerage accounts have had similar position adjustment performances. However, the position adjustment ideas in the latest statistical period are obviously conservative and the most emotional At this stage, the retail investors are pursuing such a radical increase. Should they be interpreted as a risk signal that the market is overheating?
After the market temporarily bid farewell to the unilateral rapid rise, several types of accounts unexpectedly showed differences in the judgment of long and short directions. Institutional investors tended to be conservative in their actions, while large and retail investors have reversed their positions on Maimang. Who wins and loses? Time will give the answer.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
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