After analyzing the data on the chain and market data, the chain news found that the current miners have a relatively negative attitude towards the short-term bitcoin price, but continue to be optimistic about its subsequent development.
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At 10:56 on September 20. The Bitcoin network ushered in a difficulty adjustment at block height 649152. The difficulty of mining was increased by 11.35% to 19.31T, and the difficulty was adjusted to a record high.
As of September 23, data from BTC.com showed that there were currently 38,772 unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions, with a total network computing power of 135.51 EH/s and a 24-hour transaction rate of 3.99 txs/s. There are still 11 days and 3 hours to adjust the difficulty. It is expected that the next mining difficulty will increase by 7.76% to 20.81T, or it will refresh the historical high level again.
Lianwen analyzed the current mining market from the dimensions of on-chain data and market data. The analysis found that the current miners have a relatively negative attitude towards the short-term bitcoin price, but continue to be optimistic about its subsequent development. At the same time, the arrival of the low water period will also bring new problems to the mining market and the huge potential for development hidden in the crisis.
Difficulty continues to rise after Bitcoin halving
After the Bitcoin halving in May this year, some people worry that Bitcoin miners will enter a death spiral, that is, the decline in miners’ income will lead to the shutdown of mining machines, which will reduce the computing power, and the reduction of computing power will further affect the price and cause more The miners are closed. But in fact, after a brief decrease in the difficulty of Bitcoin mining in early June, the computing power has risen all the way, and the difficulty of mining has reached a historical high of 19.31 T, and the difficulty of mining will further increase in the future.
Data source: CoinmarketCap; btc.com
The increase in the difficulty of Bitcoin mining means the increase in computing power (that is, the hash rate). The reason for the increase in computing power is the comprehensive influence of many factors. The summary is nothing more than two aspects: First, the distribution of more miners The mining machine is turned on for mining. Second, the miners have updated the mining machines with higher computing power. The investment in the mining sector is large and the payback period is long. No matter what factor is affecting the increase in computing power, it points to the conclusion that miners are optimistic about the mining and Bitcoin market in the long run.
Data source: Glassnode
Two indicators show that miners are selling bitcoin
Miners’ Position Index (MPI) is an index of miners’ position, which shows the miners’ views on short-term Bitcoin price trends. The MPI index is higher than 2, indicating that miners tend to sell Bitcoin after mining; if the MPI is negative, it indicates that they are optimistic about the short-term trend and choose to hoard Bitcoin.
As can be seen from the figure below, in the first half of 2020, miners only had two short-term sales intentions in March and May, and the MPI index for the rest of the time has been basically below 0; however, after entering July, the MPI index has increased. The second stop was 1.5, especially when the Bitcoin price was 11500 and 12000 US dollars, the miners showed a very strong selling intention.
Data source: cryptoquant.com
On September 17, the MPI index was 1.83. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was around 11,000 USD. This value shows that miners are choosing to sell Bitcoin at a high price; as of September 22, MPI has fallen to -0.51.
Another indicator can also see the recent selling behavior of miners. According to ByteTree’s data, in the past week, miners have mined a total of 6,594 bitcoins, but sold 7,150 bitcoins, reducing the total stock by 556. In the past 12 weeks, miners have basically kept selling 246 more bitcoins per week, which also shows their pessimistic attitude towards the short-term market.
Data source: ByteTree
The SOPR indicator shows that the current market sentiment is cautious
The SOPR ratio is one of the indicators to measure market sentiment, which was developed by Renato Shirakashi. When SOPR> 1, it means that the owner of Bitcoin makes a profit when trading; otherwise, it loses money. During the black swan period on March 12, the SOPR ratio dropped significantly, indicating that the market as a whole was in a panic phase; however, as the price of Bitcoin later recovered, the SOPR ratio increased.
Data source: Glassnode
With the recent retreat of Bitcoin from a high of $12,000 to $10,400, the SOPR ratio also fell from 1.034 to around 1. This also shows that market sentiment has returned to normal in the short term, but it is also cautious about the market outlook.
The dry season is approaching, Chinese miners are facing more problems
At present, Chinese practitioners in the Bitcoin mining industry are facing numerous problems: 1. The high water period for Chinese miners is coming to an end, if they make perfect adjustments to their business during the dry season; 2. The old and new mining machines are not connected. Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the production capacity of new machines is not high, and their costs remain high. However, old mining machines led by S9 will gradually shut down as the dry season comes; 3. China’s direct power supply policy for mining is relatively insufficient Stability, how to obtain compliant, low-cost and stable power resources for miners has become the top priority; 4. The mining industry has become a new development trend. At present, the regulatory attitudes of North American countries are becoming more and more active, and their mining companies will rely on more professional The business model of modernization, financialization, and systemization seizes the mining market share.
The crisis will also brew new development opportunities. Wang Xin, the marketing director of Shenma Mining Machinery, previously stated at the “3rd China (Xiamen) International Blockchain + Business Future Development Summit” branch “World Mining Expo-Xiamen Station” co-sponsored by Lianwen and Winkrypto that 2020 The superposition of the rainy season and the Bitcoin halving means that the mining logic has undergone great changes, and many new opportunities in the industry can no longer be considered from the original perspective. At present, overseas resources and global resources have become a trend. In the future, the global layout will set sail from the wet season and develop from the dry season, bringing greater vitality to the development of the entire industry.
In summary, miners are more optimistic about Bitcoin mining in the long run, but remain cautiously optimistic about the short-term. At the same time, the oligopoly of Chinese miners may experience a greater test, and the rise of mining in North America may become inevitable.
