Bitcoin futures contracted and fluctuated, and Ethereum futures, options trading volume and open positions all rebounded significantly. The realized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the implied volatility of value options continue to decline and there is no easing trend.
Written by: Karen
Weekly market dynamics
- CME Group will launch micro bitcoin futures on May 3.
- Binance has launched BTTUSDT 1-25 times U standard perpetual contract and NKNUSDT 1-25 times U standard perpetual contract.
Futures market
Overview of extreme market liquidation
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Bitcoin fluctuated and fell by about 3,800 US dollars. On Tuesday, the entire network broke out over 1 billion US dollars. Within an hour from 7:30 on Wednesday evening, the entire network liquidated nearly US$500 million. Among them, Bitcoin liquidated nearly 200 million US dollars, Ethereum liquidated nearly 90 million US dollars, and the entire network liquidated more than 1.4 billion US dollars that day. .
Futures liquidation statistics on BitMEX, Binance, Bybit, Huobi, MXC, OKEx, source: Coin
Trading volume and open positions
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx. The scope of Ethereum futures statistics includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bybit, CME (launched on February 7), Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
The trading volume of Bitcoin futures has shown a downward trend for three consecutive weeks. The trading volume in the past week was about 350 billion U.S. dollars, a drop of more than 15% from the previous week. The open position has not changed much, and it is still near the peak. One hundred million U.S. dollars.
Bitcoin futures contract trading volume, source: Skew
Bitcoin futures open positions, source: Skew
In contrast, Ethereum’s weekly trading volume rebounded sharply from last week, increasing by 50% from the previous week to 143 billion U.S. dollars. Open positions also increased by about 10% from a week ago, reaching 6.8 billion U.S. dollars as of yesterday.
Ethereum futures contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Ethereum futures, source: Skew
It can be seen that Bitcoin futures have contracted and stagnated. Although the position value is near historical highs, the range of change is limited. It is still too early to judge whether it is a reversal trend, but once the price suddenly reverses sharply, it will Send out a strong signal.
Option market
Trading volume and open positions
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bakkt, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx. The scope of Ethereum options statistics is Bit.com, Deribit, Huobi and OKEx.
After the weekly turnover of Bitcoin options fell by nearly 26% last week, the turnover has stabilized at US$6.3 billion in the past week. As of yesterday, the open position was around US$12.4 billion. Although there was a rebound, the March quarter has not been restored. The level before the settlement date.
Bitcoin options contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Bitcoin options, source: Skew
Similar to the performance of futures, the trading volume of Ethereum options has continued to increase in the past two weeks, with a week’s trading volume reaching over US$1.4 billion, an increase of 15.19% from the previous month. At the same time, the open position of Ethereum also increased by more than 40% from a week ago, and has basically rebounded to the level before the March delivery date.
Ethereum option contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Ethereum options contracts, source: Skew
Volatility
The realized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the implied volatility of value options continue to decline, and there is no easing trend. Among them, the realized volatility of Bitcoin has dropped from 114% in early February to the current 62%, which is flat in one month. The implied volatility of value options dropped from 143% in mid-January to the current 60%; the realized volatility of Ethereum and the implied volatility of value options both fell below 80%.
From left to right are the realized volatility of Bitcoin one month and the implied volatility of Bitcoin one month ATM
From left to right are the one-month realized volatility of Ethereum and the one-month ATM implied volatility of Bitcoin
Ratio of open interest PCR
After the Bitcoin holdings PCR ratio fell from above 0.9 to around 0.85 on the day of the March quarterly delivery, it has not seen a significant rebound at present, and was 0.88 as of April 8. It is worth noting that the ratio of Ethereum open interest PCR dropped from 0.77 to 0.66 on March 26, and then showed a steady upward trend, reaching 0.73 as of yesterday. The Put/Call Ratio (PCR) is an indicator used to measure the ratio of bears to bulls. If the PCR value is greater than 1, it means that the short is greater than the long; if it is less than 1, the short is less than the long.
Ratio of Bitcoin options open interest and trading volume PCR
The ratio of Ethereum options open interest and trading volume PCR
Option exercise and expiration
As of April 8, among the open positions of Bitcoin options, the open positions with exercise prices of USD 40,000 and USD 50,000 were the most, both of which exceeded 16,000 bitcoins. In addition, on April 30th, 56,100 bitcoins will expire, worth nearly 3.287 billion U.S. dollars, of which call options account for about 55%.
Bitcoin option exercise and expiration, source: Skew
Among the open positions of Ethereum options, option positions with an exercise price of 1600 are the most, reaching nearly 74,000 Ethereum. On April 30th, 280,000 Ethereum will expire, worth approximately US$580 million. Ethereum option exercise and expiration, source: Skew
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