Hi everyone, I’m Pepe, a member of the Encrypted Atmosphere Group. In fact, at this time in previous years, some prediction content should be published. I think the mainstream media in the circle have also reposted many big V’s predictions, but I have been in the Atmosphere group for a long time. , I also feel that forecasting is not very useful. Everything still needs the market to come out step by step. It may be more important to grasp the core growth logic of current market changes.
Just like the “top-escape indicators” we explored together in the previous issue, I think we have received quite a lot of feedback. It should be noted that these indicators can only reflect the current market status, whether they are relatively undervalued or overvalued, but it is also It follows the market fluctuations, so it can not be said that the top of the indicator is displayed near 50,000, there will be the future “top” area. Note that those are not predictive indicators.
So here we change the forecast into a discussion: which crypto assets to buy and allocate in 2021.
I think everyone should have their own answer to this question, and there is no absolute standard answer. Today, I will treat it as a simple chat and a compilation of the current alt market.
Bit ether
Bitcoin is considered successful out of the circle in 2020, and there are also those who came in last year outside the circle. When it comes to cryptocurrency, the first thing that comes to mind is that Ethereum has the largest crypto community. There are not a few, and they are more concentrated in the ether and ether ecology.
The current market value accounts for 69.1%, which is 12.8%. It should be said that the sum is the undoubted target of Amber. From the current situation, the crypto world is more to meet the needs of trading and speculation, and there is no really popular application. It appears that even if Ethereum has scalability problems, its first-mover advantage can last for a long time. So from the configuration point of view, as long as you are here for a long time, you should allocate some positions. There is nothing to say.
According to personal circumstances, you can adjust some position ratios appropriately. For example, if we don’t understand the usual content, we can put 80 to 90% of the positions that can be invested in btceth. If you are more knowledgeable, you will have more energy. To study various alts, or to have a particularly optimistic target or strategy, it is possible to be more aggressive in position allocation.
But also note:
(1) Bitether has also doubled tenfold from last year’s lowest point. The current market’s craziness is that there is a large amount of money that wants to make quick money entering. It is hard to say where it can go in the short term. According to 17 years The high point has doubled. If it goes up again, a large number of retail investors will not be able to transfer basic funds. So if you are a new entrant, or if you want to catch up with the increase, you should be mentally prepared. As an old wine and food, I am I think there will be a better time to enter the market. Of course, crazy cows are unpredictable. The old wine and food may be more suitable for life saving, rather than making quick money.
(2) In the current financial markets at home and abroad, there are some phenomena of constant strength and two-level differentiation. For example, the domestic drum market liquor and new energy sectors have always been strong, while many small market capitalization stocks have performed flat. This also stems from the background Group of funds.
The crypto world now seems to have this trend. It is stronger than Bitcoin and has a certain degree of liquidity. It is not just looking at the increase, but it is gone. It seems that there is not much. This is also to be maintained in the future. One reason for strong asset allocation.
However, for cryptocurrency, it is more complicated than the traditional financial market. It is a globalized market. For some targets, I don’t know which corner of the horns there is a group of people who see something unreasonable and good, it may rise up. Wave, and look through the 7-day gain rankings on coingecko:
It can be said that the pie and the ether are not only rising at this stage. . So, let’s sort out the alts of some relatively hot markets in the past two years to see which ones can also be selected:
1. Ethereum Eco-coin
The outbreak of copycats that began in the second half of 2020 is mainly concentrated in the Ethereum ecological currency, which is the erc20 token. Here we also make a breakdown:
(1) defi coin
Defi should be rotten by most of the media. What we need to pay attention to here is one that has a relatively large amount of mortgage leverage, that is, in a lending platform such as compound/aave, it can be used as a mortgage chip to lend stablecoins. The target, because such a target is equivalent to having a big head mortgage on the network, there is less selling, and the borrowed U can also be leveraged.
There are mainly a few here:
link/aave/snx/yfi
The other is that uniswap is the largest and most active on the ether. His platform currency uni is also receiving enough attention from the market. There is also a sushi and community popularity, but the fundamentals are still a bit far from uniswap.
The other is defi mining coins, the two big comp and crv, the smaller one is not mentioned. This kind of long-term selling pressure will be inferior to the first two. I have always felt that the core of defi is not It’s not about mining.
Regarding the future direction of defi currency, one of the fundamentals you can refer to is the data in defipulse:
At present, the lock-up funds in defi have been advancing by leaps and bounds, and have exceeded 22 billion U.S. dollars. You must know that in June last year, this value only broke 1 billion, which has increased by 20 times in six months. If there is an exponential growth this year, defi The market value of these top items will still have a growth state.
However, there are issues that need to be noted. First, the above value seems to have increased a lot. In fact, more of it comes from the increase in the market value of BitEther, and the recent lock-up volume has decreased.
Second, as we mentioned before, leverage can bring prosperity, but it may also be the fuse of collapse. The most feared thing about mortgage tokens is the centralized liquidation brought about by the sudden price collapse of dozens of points. This wave of bits is There is almost no decent callback all the way up. It seems that the maximum time is 17%. For the time being, we are still very safe, and the increase in market value also means that more money can be lent (lapan).
Another good aspect is that I have observed some large accounts before. The larger the tens of millions of dollars, the more conservative the use of mortgage leverage, so for the time being, liquidation collapse is still a small probability event.
(2) Tool tokens
The one represented here is that the oracle serves as a bridge between off-chain data and smart contracts, and the other is api3, which was released at the end of last year, which is also a third-party service for on-chain api.
There is also The graph (grt) that was ignited some time ago to provide data indexing services for on-chain applications.
It seems that the latter tool tokens that serve the ether ecosystem will also be a trend, especially compared to the era when technological concepts were king in 17 years, the current trend seems to prefer pragmatic things.
But for the time being, this type of token is still more speculative, like I personally think that more of its growth comes from mortgages rather than the oracle itself, like grt, more depends on short-term project dynamics and hype, right? Can be configured for a long time, I am here to make a question mark.
(3) Index fund tokens
I think this category may be a trend in the future, because the market becomes more and more mature, and more financial products should come out. We not only have trusts like Grayscale, but also some fund products similar to traditional markets on the chain. Develop some profit strategies and the like.
One of the ether ecosystems that can be seen at present is the tokenset, which has some holding strategies to follow up with:
At the same time, his family also issued a defi index DPI. Buying DPI tokens is equivalent to holding a basket of defi tokens.
The other is DuckDaoDime, a decentralized VC angel investment community that was introduced in the small currency before. Through community power to invest and incubate some encrypted small projects and then jointly seek profit, tokens can be understood as the barriers to entry for this community fee.
Of course, both of the above are still quite niche. To mention here, I also want to say that I hope to see more such “group profit” projects in the future.
(4) Second-tier network concept currency
The expansion of the Layer 2 network will be a rigid demand this year. For this piece, please see the previous content:
With the explosion of gas, the second-tier network concept will become the most beautiful boy in 2021?
These same concept coins also feel that there are mostly hype elements. The speculative perspective will be a point that can be paid attention to in 2021, but in the end, we still have to see who can really be widely used. I feel that it may be possible to apply it in a traffic portal like uniswap. More advantages, rather than a new little-known little one.
Concluding remarks
To be continued. .
