I read Arjun’s article on Crypto Market Structure 3.0 in the past few weeks. The crypto market has gone through 10 years in the blink of an eye. During this period, we have roughly gone through three stages: the wild development period, the wild growth period, and the mature period. This article takes us from a macro perspective to overlook the panorama of the crypto market.
The full text is fluent and magnificent. It may be the first programmatic investment document of this year. Although it does not involve specific currencies, this article becomes more meaningful as the DEFI squeezes the bubble and the overall market pulls back. Because it makes us think about how the market as a whole has changed.
So I have the following thinking. The topic of the article is also on the encryption market structure 3.0, but the perspective is from the micro level of individual investors and the encryption community.
The game between the primary and secondary markets has become more intense
The continuous production of new projects in the primary market makes the secondary market unable to bear pressure. There are so many newly launched projects recently, which is dizzying. Many people, regardless of specific projects, are collectively classified as leek cutting projects. Many people are at a loss with both hands, and there is no way to judge and start so many projects. However, the financial market has always liked the new and disliked the old. The so-called old will not go away and the new will not come. In a sense, this is the market telling you that you should look for new projects instead of indulging in old projects.
New projects emerge in an endless stream, which also illustrates from the side how difficult it is for a project to capture the market’s attention for a long time.
For the project party, it is too difficult to go through various large and small cycles. This is also a manifestation of the gradual decline of industry growth dividends: more and more professional and structured. But there is no need to be overly pessimistic, the dividends in the crypto market still exist, squeezing the dividends for stupid money and non-professional players. Nowadays, if you want to get dividends, it is nothing more than making yourself professional and smart.
What are the common features of the newly launched projects today can also be summarized in the following paragraph: low circulation, high valuation, linear lock-up of private equity for 1-2 years, secondary market players due to high valuation and potential long-term selling Don’t dare to intervene. The result is that prices continue to fall. If the market and products of the project do not make substantial progress, it will almost be the end of chronic death. Private equity investors will not be able to obtain rich excess returns due to strict long-term linear lock-up.
The anxiety of the market. It is nothing more than the time, patience and funds of all parties. This kind of situation where all parties are very uncomfortable, you can say that it has reached the equilibrium state of the market. The reason why everyone is so uncomfortable is because the crypto market is becoming more and more mature. The more mature, the more uncomfortable.
The fault of high-level call orders in the encrypted bottom community
NEAR has been online in recent days, and it is gratifying that some people in China are promoting the community, perhaps because of the project’s ambassador community plan. Disappointingly, these milk NEAR partners didn’t have the idea at all, but it would make everyone misunderstand or even dislike the project.
In fact, it’s not just NEAR. Looking at the entire crypto Chinese community, there are not many altcoin players. Good hands are reflected in two aspects. One is that the milk coin milk is nutritious, large and healthy. The second is the strong milk coin milk, even if others understand that this is nothing more than a scam, but after reading the milk article, they will willingly buy. There are no more than five milk coin holders who can do both in today’s Crypto China.
The reason is that the green and yellow are not connected. The big Vs and KOLs of the last era either already had financial freedom and hid their fame and fame, and no longer interacted with Leek. Either the cognition is not in place, it is lagging behind the times, and you don’t even know what altcoins are. Either you have done too many unscrupulous things and everyone has lost trust in it.
More importantly, first-class talents with professional abilities and excellent writing ability have all entered the organization and project side. This has led to the current discontinuity of high-level milk texts at the grassroots community level. Everyone can only see boring low-end violent shouts, and rarely see elegant and full-fledged senior milk texts. The significance of advanced milk writing is to guide stupid money and smart money into high-quality projects, which increases the efficiency of resource allocation in the financial market.
But on the other hand, for most retail investors, they only need a violent shout. The so-called “don’t tell me too much, just tell me what to buy”. So this is also the meaning of no-brained shouting.
Narrative transformation: using projects to build and brew stories
Following the above, new projects in the primary market are emerging in an endless stream. I am personally happy about it. The continuous innovation of projects means that for investors, there are more opportunities to choose. It just means that it takes time to screen, so why not do it.
At the same time, I remembered that the rise of a certain investment theme/narrative in the market must have been detonated by a leading project, which in turn ignited a series of projects in Long Er Long San. The outbreak of a story must be completed by a group of projects. This is what it means to keep new projects on the market.
The mass production of the project itself is a narrative. Through the stacking of projects, we can sort out the context of multiple stories, and then let the market choose which story line to detonate. Obviously, in the last round of market quotations, this story line of DeFi was ignited.
2021 is destined to be a year when a hundred flowers bloom and a hundred schools of thought contend. For investors, what we need to do is to arrange and combine these newly launched projects like building Lego blocks, constantly brainstorming, imagining different story scenarios, and the opportunities for their respective outbreaks, and then proceeding to each track. Layout.
I believe that using projects to build stories will be the norm in the next 3-5 years.
The relationship between stakeholders becomes more complicated
The recent AMM debate on the Internet revealed the two major camps in the foreign crypto community, the bullish AMM camp led by Paradigm, and the bearish AMM camp led by Alamenda and Multicoin. It is difficult to say which is right and which is wrong. Each has its own positions and interests, but it also confirms that the community is politics, and where there are so-called people, there are rivers and lakes.
For me and other people who eat melons, what can be learned is the viewpoints of all parties and can provide potential guidance for their own investments. It’s also a good thing. In general, the relationship between stakeholders in the entire crypto market has become more complicated.
I am in you, you in me, enemy and friend, love and kill each other. This is Crypto World.
