The mining capital is the mining capital. In the past week, Sichuan and other southwestern provinces have entered a dry period one after another. The mining machines in the local Fengshui mine had to be shut down and moved to thermal power mines in the northwest or kept for sale. As a result, the computing power of Bitcoin’s entire network has fallen in response, and the average computing power of the past 7 days has fallen from 150Eh/s to 133.3Eh/s, a drop of 8%. Moreover, the decline is still in the context of the rapid increase in currency prices. Last week, Bitcoin started the blood-sucking market, breaking through $12,000 and $13,000 successively in the 4 consecutive days on the daily line, and closed up 13.5% on the weekly line.
“The price of currency has increased a bit recently, reducing the number of shutdowns.” Pan Zhibiao, the founder of Binyin, believes.
Then, what impact will the low water period have on miners, mining machines, and the computing power of the entire network? Let’s take a look at what the veterans of the mine circle say.
The hashrate of the three major Bitcoin mining pools drops by 20%, while Ethereum’s hashrate remains unchanged
On Monday, the Odaily Planet Daily reported the changes in the computing power of the previous week of Minmetals Pool. The results show that compared to last Monday, the top three mining pools, namely Poolin Coins, F2pool, and BTC.com mining pools, have all experienced a decline of more than 20%. The fourth-ranked Huobi Pool’s computing power dropped less (18%), while the fifth-ranked Ant Pool rose instead of falling.
Seven days later, the difficulty of the entire network is expected to be lowered as the computing power declines.
Bitcoin has its ups and downs, but what about Ethereum?
From the data point of view, the computing power of Ethereum’s entire network has remained at a historically high level, and has not dropped significantly. In this regard, a graphics card miner said that due to high requirements for stability and environmental humidity, a considerable part of them does not participate in the migration. Therefore, this node will not have a major impact on the computing power of the entire network.
Data from:; Time: 15:00 on October 26
1/3 of Bitcoin’s entire network joins the great migration
During the transition period, it is undoubtedly a difficult task for the miners who join the migration team. A slight delay on the road or a machine trip is a visible loss.
The recent outbreak in Kashgar, Xinjiang may affect the relocation of some miners.
Shenyu, founder of Yuchi and Cobo Wallet, complained to miners on Weibo
According to estimates by Zhu Fang, the co-founder of BitIndia and BiYin, the relocation cycle is expected to be as long as one month. During this period, the entire network’s computing power will show a V-shaped trend that first drops and then rises.
Regarding how much the computing power of the entire network will drop, Tian Xin, the co-founder of Ant Pool, predicts that the minimum may drop to about 100 Eh/s. Another head of the mine pool operator also told Odaily Planet Daily this number. In this way, the computing power of the relocation can account for 1/3 of the computing power of the entire network (although old mining machines will not participate in the large-scale conversion of harvest and dry, but a considerable part of it will also flow into the second-hand market, change ownership or go overseas , Can be regarded as a kind of relocation). In addition, there are two senior miners who are slightly conservative in their estimates. They believe that the scale of this relocation may account for 2-3% of the entire network’s computing power.
In short, there is no doubt that this established action will bring about a decline in computing power, and this month will also become the golden period of mining for “full-year electric miners”.
According to the statistics of digcoin.com, Bitcoin’s theoretical gains in the past 30 days have been rising steadily due to the rise in currency prices, with a maximum gain of 0.65 yuan per day per T day, which is 33% higher than the low point. As for the dividends brought by this relocation, we might as well look at it in 1 month.
Data from:; Time: 12:00 on October 26
After the relocation, Zhu Fang believes that the computing power of the entire network will rise above 115Eh/s.
Mining machine update speed is limited, S9 can fight again next year?
According to experience, the dry seasons in the past each year have triggered a wave of purchases, because higher thermal power prices require miners to have lower power consumption and hashrate ratios in order to obtain higher profits. But this year, this situation may not happen.
First, there is insufficient production capacity, and more importantly, there is no explosive trend in the demand of miners.
A Bitcoin miner worker told Odaily Planet Daily, “Since this year, the supply of mining machines has been in short supply, including now, the futures mining machines of several major manufacturers have encountered the next February. The main problem is production capacity, not sales exceeding expectations. Since the settlement of Antminer has not been clear, there are no large orders; Shenma is affected by Samsung’s serious shortage of production capacity, which is the same for us.”
Chen Lei, founder of BitBlue Whale, concluded, “Purchasing power is the real problem. China’s old miners have experienced a 312 plummet, halved, and are facing the pressure of rapid depreciation of mining machines. The motivation and confidence to purchase mining machines are insufficient. “
In the anticipation of “renewal of machines with limited speed,” many miners did not immediately dump their Ant S9.
According to the mining revenue calculator, at the current high currency price (13,000 US dollars), the electricity price needs to be lower than 0.26 yuan/kWh to start the S9, but miners can hardly get this price. The current custody price of thermal power mines is generally between 0.34 yuan/kWh-0.36 yuan/kWh, and S9 cannot operate at all.
Therefore, for the S9 that cannot be turned on by thermal power, it seems that there are only three ways to go. The first is to flow to mine owners with lower electricity prices. This has already happened during this year’s high water period. When it comes to low water, many mines still have less money. Part of the load can be operated; the second is to flow to overseas with lower electricity prices; the third is to flow to the longs who want to buy the bottom of the mining machine and wait for the currency price to rise before selling/mining. “It depends on personal strategy.”
Under the multi-party game, there has not been a wave of S9 dumping on the market as expected. Not only that, Wu Ke, the co-founder of Huaqiangbei’s mining machine dealer, Binhuo Technology, told Odaily Planet Daily that because the currency price is improving, S9 is still rising these days. Up. “At the lowest point, I was in my early 100s, and now it’s two to three hundred.”
Regarding the question of whether the S9 can be powered on next year, some miners expressed that they did not rule out this possibility. But Wu Ke is not optimistic.
“There is a high probability that it is impossible to dig in the country. Even if there is abundant water and low-cost electricity next year, everyone is more willing to deploy higher-yielding machines. It doesn’t make much sense to keep the S9 occupying assets and going up and down.”
Unexpectedly, the S9, which I thought would not be able to survive this year’s Fengshui, was not really “executed” to the low water. If it can start next year, it means that the pace of mining is really slow now.
