This is the fifth article in the “Kay’s DeFi Notes” series. This series is dedicated to providing some common sense about DeFi in the most accessible language, including not limited to conventional concepts such as impermanent loss/AMM, or about the principles of new projects , Design analysis, and strive to make the people who don’t understand DeFi can understand it. I hope I can write at least 30 articles.
The author is a non-professional financial person, this is a non-serious series, focusing on the sorting out of personal thoughts and self-expression, it is good for those who read it to read it, and those who write it do not matter.
This article is some excerpts and personal comments when I read it. It is basically in the order of the original text and is not specially arranged. It is suitable for providing a rough glance of the content of more than 100 pages of the original text. I still need to pick interesting points and read it carefully.
0. Teacher Wan said that it’s 2077 quotes recently-just go home and hit 2077, but why hasn’t Bitcoin been used in 2077 🙂
1. Bitcoin on the exchange did not flow out from the DeFi wave, but 312, and the approximate balance decreased from 2.8 million to 2.2 million
1.1 There are not as many outflows as expected. It may not have much impact on CoinBase, Binance, and Huobi for the time being. It just makes them realize that Aha and DeFi are a new trend worthy of attention. But the other side of the coin is that it may have a huge impact on some small third- and fourth-tier exchanges.
2. When we say that NFT is the next hot spot, what are we talking about- these four categories are completely different
3. FTX’s transaction volume has increased by 10 times year-on-year. At the same time, SBF is Biden’s second largest supporter after Michael Bloomberg-whether you like SBF or not
4. Grayscale parent company DCG surpassed Coinbase this year and became the most highly valued (?) crypto-related company in the United States, but it is unlikely to go public
4.1 In my impression, there was an AUM of 250,000 Bitcoins in the middle of last year. It has attracted so much attention this year, which is related to the PR of Coinbase (which belongs to DCG).
4.2 GBTC has never seen a negative premium in the past four years
4.3 If Bitcoin rises to US$100,000 next year, DCG is likely to become an unlisted company with an EBITDA of US$1 billion
4.4 The first exchange to actually list may be Coinbase. I remember that cz mentioned in a Podcast that Binance would not be the first exchange to list. On the one hand, it is the first time to try if someone else will do it later. Operations”, on the other hand Binance has Russian operations
4.5 cz hopes Binance will eventually become a DEX
5. A metaphor: Grayscale is the Berkshire Haassa in the crypto world
6. Andre Cronje . I want to say a lot, but I don’t know where to start. Yet we, I mean, he, can’t quite quit crypto.
7. How to beat BTC/ETH? The author of the research report stated:
– Information asymmetry, inside information (the richer gets richer)
– Have technical advantages and compete on the chain (“scientist”)
– For those assets that you think are really underestimated, and many smart people are really wrong, generate letters ~~ Yang ~ ~ read, and then take a big position
Summary: difficult.
8. The author(s) position table can clearly observe the phenomenon of the middle YFI standard, LONG Andre, LONG DeFi, LONG ETH.
9. Will Bitcoin become “non-homogeneous”? In other words, will a “virgin coin” dug by a miner be different from a coin that has been circulated through N hands? The author believes that self-custodial and private transactions will eventually win, but no reason is given, probably based on the belief in Crypto OG lol
10. Another metaphor: Bitcoin mining may become the balance of liabilities of the global grid
11. See more ZEC, see more privacy wealth containers (for not so good reasons
11.1 There are more privacy solutions, such as NuCypher ($NU), Oasis ($ROSE)
12. Substitutes hurt monetary premiums; BTC has few substitutes, ETH may have many.
13. ETH is a “three-point” asset: commodities (as a necessity for transferring gas), means of production (Eth2 Staking), and possibly money (reserve assets)
14. According to the latest vision of Vitalik and friends, ETH2 may be ETH1.5 + Rollup, the core is in Rollup, not sharding
Uncle Miao: In the beginning, this was still a small market (eth in 15 years). People didn’t know what to buy or sell, but the market gradually formed like this, and even a small shop was born, and some people made money. Market business (Compound, Aave), some people do exchange business (Uniswap). But there was a goal set at the beginning of the establishment (no one knew whether it was right or wrong at that time), that is, to build a cathedral (ETH 2.0). People waited and often gathered to discuss it.
Time is very fast, several years have passed, and the days of delivery have gradually progressed, and the veiled cathedral has never been seen by everyone. So people keep asking the people who set up the market stalls when we can enter the cathedral.
Under constant persecution, things are advancing, and disputes and abuses are disclosed. So the advocates of the church once suggested gathering in the square to answer any questions from everyone, but they did not explain how the decision was changed. (Call #52), people also pretend (or are unable to really) not care because they worry that their doubts will bring criticism from others.
People in the square talked to themselves. In a question and answer, they were looking for the possibility of being brilliant after entering the church. Most people knew that they didn’t really need the church or were uncertain. After all, compared to the small market a few years ago, We have a faster infrastructure (Rollup), we have a guard (Miner) to ensure market order, but they hope that they can have some power to change the form of this church.
So the advocates said that if you want to enter this church, the infrastructure must serve it (Rollup is the center), if you want to enter this church, the governance that everyone can participate in must be the premise (PoS), if you If you want to enter this church, the past market will be prosperous because of you (community confidence). If you want to enter this church, you have to cast a vote and first give up the current guard (Miner).
No one really expects this church, people only expect their own power to be exercised, even if it is not based on justice, even if the fair participation of assets brings about centralization, some people have given vigilance. But no one really expects this church, people only expect their power to be exercised.
15. The average transaction fee of ETH this year accounts for about 0.2%, while BTC is 0.4%
16. One of the core competitive advantages of ETH is that people are willing to believe in V God and follow V God, because the ETH he built makes many people rich
16.1 Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto’s launch methods cannot be replicated, but in terms of attracting “early community believers”, ETH’s token sale, YFI’s “worthless” fair token distribution, and Uniswap’s airdrop may be the most Close to the blameless token distribution method like Bitcoin
17. Uniswap vs CEX is like BTC vs global legal currency
Bitcoin is a bad currency in relation to the US dollar, but a very good currency compared to the Argentine Peso or Venezuelan Bolivar or Sudanese Pound . As bitcoin strengthens and other currencies inflate, it rises up the currency leaderboard. Likewise, Uniswap is a “ bad exchange” compared to Binance and Coinbase (though even that is now somewhat arguable), but a very good exchange for long-tail assets and when compared to centralized exchanges outside of the top 50 by trading volumes. Soon, that will be the top 10 by volumes.
18. The DeFi code is open source, so what is the moat of the DeFi protocol?
Brand, integration, usability, goodwill, external cooperation, high security, and a wise treasury strategy.
Branding, integrations, usability, goodwill, partnerships, good security are all important. But a sound treasury strategy is critical.
How to understand? LONG Andre, LONG YFI 🙂
19. The YFI M&A in November is not the end, there will be more M&A in the DeFi world in 2021
20. In the past year, USDT supply has doubled 4 times, USDC 6 times, PAX / BUSD / HUSD (BUSD/HUSD is PAX’s OEM vest) has doubled 5 times, and DAI has doubled 15 times
21. USDT’s daily on-chain transfer volume has exceeded BTC around August
22. The Maker behind DAI may be the most difficult DeFi protocol to fork (same as Multicoin view)
22.1 In the lending business itself, Maker lags behind AAVE/Compound in this round, but thanks to the large amount of DAI used in farming, the issuance of DAI has greatly increased
23. In response to DAI’s relative lack of arbitrage mechanism, Terra has added an arbitrage scheme that can be exchanged back to pledges
24. Two major management principles of crypto fund: don’t go short, don’t go long on currency
25. DeFi fixed income agreement began to appear, LONG $MPH
26. The gray-scale arbitrage expectation APY is even higher than the yield of many DeFi risk-free mines (of course, the threshold for participation is also high). The positive premium of GBTC in the past year is about 10-20%, while ETHE is 50-80%
27. Although “synthetic stocks” are cool, they haven’t brought drastic changes to the crypto world. The author believes that this concept will be falsified in 2021.
28. Multicoin’s HT and BNB valuation report is worth reading again
29. Few wallets or other Web3 applications release liquidity mining incentives, and there may be next year
30. Index track: SET, PieDAO, Melon
31. The cumulative number of CEX registrations may have exceeded 100 million
32. Data tools: Can platform-level products that aggregate CMC / CoinGecko + Dune Analytics + The Graph + Coin Metrics + Nansen appear?
33. Messari: To be the Bloomberg of the Crypto world (Bloomberg machine)
34. Among the decentralized infrastructure networks (computing platform Golem, video transcoding network Livepeer, V*N platform Orchid, long wave IoT network Helium, address service network FOAM), the author believes that Helium is the most likely to break out
35. $HNS?
If you want convexity, the future is a decentralized DNS + RSS + Tokens.
36. The author sees more NFT directions:
– Digital art trading platform and digital collection
– MEME-based lottery applications (foreigners don’t speak human language, I translate it, it should refer to NFT blind box applications, NFT POP MART
37. The author’s negative NFT direction:
– NFT collection as collateral──NFT+DeFi
– NFT liquidity mining
38. Virtual worlds like Axie Infinity and Decentraland will continue to grow
39. Crypto is borderless, and the community has borders. This kind of controversy and uneasiness leaves only Western Bias & Chinese Fear in the author’s perspective. The opposite of Western is Chinese, not Eastern, which is interesting.
40. Crypto and “Denationalization of Currency” give Global Nomad more choices, Estonia
