The trading volume of Bitcoin futures increased by 70% in a week, and the single-day trading volume set a record high. The futures positions and option positions of Bitcoin and Ethereum both set record highs. The average weekly funding rate of BitMEX Ethereum perpetual contracts reached nearly 0.05%. The market is crazy, and investors need to beware of the risk of falling back.
Written by: Karen
Weekly market dynamics
Huobi launches USDT standard perpetual contracts of COMP, THETA, OMG, XEM and KSM.
Futures market
Overview of extreme market liquidation
In the past week (December 11-17), Bitcoin has soared by more than US$5,000, an increase of nearly 30%. This Wednesday and Thursday, Bitcoin has risen wildly close to US$24,000, with a single-day liquidation amount of US$277 million. , 622 million US dollars.
BitMEX, Binance, Bybit, Huobi and OKEx five exchanges’ Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Coin
Trading volume
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx. The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bybit, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
As Bitcoin continues to hit historical highs, trading volume has also increased significantly. The weekly trading volume increased by 73% from the previous month to 209.1 billion U.S. dollars. Among them, BitMEX has almost doubled the number of households, Huobi has increased by more than 80%, and CME has increased by more than 70%. . In addition, on the day when Bitcoin approached 24,000 U.S. dollars this Thursday, the transaction volume reached nearly 80 billion U.S. dollars, setting the highest single-day transaction record in the statistical period since May 2019.
Daily trading volume of Bitcoin futures contracts, source: Skew
Ethereum’s weekly trading volume increased by over 27% month-on-month, reaching 51.687 billion US dollars. However, compared with the increasing speed of Bitcoin transaction volume, Ethereum’s daily transaction volume and weekly transaction volume are still a long way from the historical high at the end of November.
Open positions in Ethereum futures, source: Skew
Open positions
At the same time, the open position data of Bitcoin also continued to hit historical highs, reaching nearly US$8.1 billion as of December 17, an increase of about 20% from a week ago.
Open positions in Bitcoin futures contracts, source: Skew
The open position of Ethereum also exceeded US$2 billion for the first time, setting a record high, an increase of nearly 35% from a week ago.
Open positions in Ethereum futures, source: Skew
Based on the Bitcoin price and futures trading volume and position data, traders are more optimistic about the market trend and believe that the current market trend may continue for some time.
Funding rate
Funding rate is a cyclical fee transferred between long and short traders in a perpetual contract to keep the price of the perpetual contract close to the value of the underlying asset, aiming to balance supply and demand between longs and shorts. The fund rate is positive, which means that long positions are dominant and long positions are paid to short positions. On the contrary, it means that short positions are more than long positions, and short positions are paid to long positions.
In the past week, as the price of Bitcoin and the popularity of trading rose at the same time, the market price of perpetual contracts was higher than the index price, and the funding rate of the exchange also showed an upward trend. The average funding rate of Deribit and OKEx both exceeded 0.022%. Only Bitfinex is negative (-0.0039%), and the average funding rate of other exchanges is also between 0.015% and 0.02%.
Comparison of Bitcoin Perpetual Contract Funding Rates of Various Exchanges
In terms of Ethereum, the funding rate of BitMEX perpetual contracts has increased significantly on Wednesday and Thursday. The average funding rate for a week is as high as 0.0477%, and the average funding rate of OKEx and Bybit is also above 0.03%.
Comparison of Ethereum Perpetual Contract Funding Rates of Various Exchanges
It can be seen that in the medium and long term, the capital rate of Ethereum in particular is currently at a relatively high position, the market is crazy, and investors need to beware of falling risks.
Option market
Trading volume
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Bakkt, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx. The scope of Ethereum options statistics is Deribit, Huobi and OKEx.
The weekly trading volume of Bitcoin options also increased by about 80% from the previous month to US$4.2 billion. Among them, the trading volume of OKEx, CME, and Bit.com all increased by more than 100%, and the interest of institutions and ordinary traders in Bitcoin continued to rise.
Bitcoin options daily trading volume, source: Skew
Ethereum’s weekly trading volume also increased by more than 60% to 465 million US dollars. It is worth noting that Deribit’s trading volume accounted for 95%, which is an increase from the previous 90%.
Daily trading volume of Ethereum options, data source: Skew
Open positions
The open position of Bitcoin options showed a blowout growth, continuing to hit a record high. As of December 17, it was $6.573 billion, an increase of over 40% from a week ago.
Open positions in Bitcoin options, source: Skew
The value of Ethereum holdings also climbed to a new high above $1 billion.
Open positions in Ethereum options, source: Skew
Ratio of open interest PCR
Put/Call Ratio (Put/Call Ratio, PCR) is an indicator used to measure the ratio of bearish calls. If the PCR value is greater than 1, it means that the short is greater than the long; if it is less than 1, the short is less than the long.
Ethereum’s position PCR ratio on December 17 was 0.93. Although many parties still maintain a certain advantage, it has increased from about 80% a month ago. This means that investors are also buying a large number of put options. The market may continue to rebound in the short term, but sentiment turns to cautious.
The ratio of Ethereum options open interest PCR
In contrast, although the ratio of Bitcoin’s open interest to PCR has increased slightly, the ratio remains at around 70%.
Bitcoin option open interest PCR ratio
Volatility
As of December 17, Bitcoin’s one-month realized volatility rate was 75%, and the one-month at-the-money option implied volatility rate was 77.6%, which is far lower than the level of March and April this year, but from the past seven months Look at a higher level. The higher implied volatility of at-the-money options, coupled with the upcoming quarterly delivery date, the market expects that Bitcoin will fluctuate significantly in the future.
From left to right are the realized volatility of Bitcoin one month and the implied volatility of Bitcoin one month ATM
From left to right are the one-month realized volatility of Ethereum and the one-month ATM implied volatility of Bitcoin
Option expiration
On December 25, 96,000 contracts (with a nominal value of over US$2.2 billion) will expire.
Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew
In Ethereum, 730,100 contracts (with a nominal value of over US$470 million) expired on December 25.
Ethereum option expiration, source: Skew
