◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
The market, which remained weak until the morning after the plunge the day before, is gradually turning upward as a low-priced buying trend has flowed mainly from the top stocks in the market cap. However, as of 14:00 on the 11th, Bitcoin (BTC), which is the number one cryptocurrency market cap based on the coin market cap, remains weak at 55,243.51 dollars, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $73.5 billion and a market cap of about 1.36.1 billion. It’s dollars. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.33 trillion, the market capitalization of Bitcoin is 43.1%, and the market capitalization of Ethereum is 18.8%. At this time, the 2~4% strong stocks are Yon Finance Coin (YFI), Doge Coin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), and Ethereum (ETH).
Last night, the US stock market fell all at once as sales poured out, centered on large tech stocks. In particular, as the stock prices of major technology stocks plummeted, the Dow Index, which once recorded the 35,000 line during the day, closed down. On the 10th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 indexes fell 0.10% and 1.04%, respectively, from the previous trading day, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index also 2.2%. Fell.
The total cryptocurrency market cap was the same as the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 0.88% compared to the previous day, making altcoins relatively stronger than bitcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap decreased by 1.05% compared to the previous day. It was analyzed that Bitcoin’s market share decreased by 1.05% compared to the previous day, which is lower than the average decline rate of altcoins.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which showed a mixed trend in the morning, turned weaker in the afternoon, and it was analyzed that the sales volume is increasing mainly in bitcoin and small and medium-sized stocks. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -1.09%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -0.69%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is -1.06%, and a medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded -1.52%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded -2.35%.
As of 14:00 on the 11th, the cumulative buy:sell transaction volume ratio of the last 24 hours at the major cryptocurrency exchanges was 51%:49%, showing a high buying trend, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to have a strong selling trend. . (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis for Bitcoin futures was around -7.5, and the basis for Ethereum futures was around +4.10. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. May futures traded at $57,612.5, an increase of $622.5 (+1.09%) compared to the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>
As of 14:00 on the 11th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 6,945 million won, down 2.05% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 4.9 million won, down 2.00%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market is declining based on coin market cap, and 9 out of the top 10 stocks by market cap as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell 6.77% from the same time the day before to $55,243.51, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 4.62% to $4,891.74. As of this time, the characteristic stock is Internet Computer (ICP), which ranked 5th in the market capitalization after a day after trading on major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance on May 10 (Mon) (local time). Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <Strengthening>
While the price of bitcoin remains weak as the Ether price hits its highs and the altcoin season continues, many market experts insist that the futures market and the on-chain data will still continue the bull market. They expect that the same situation will continue for the time being until Bitcoin makes another move, and the altcoin craze is expected to fade somewhat when another move comes in, but this period is expected to be the period of the bullish turn of Bitcoin on the contrary. .
(Positive opinion)
① Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, predicted that “in the next five years, the price of bitcoin will reach $250,000.” “Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 in five years, but many investors are underestimating its potential,” Yusco said. Yusko added that what people are missing is that this is a technological evolution of computing power that does not disappear.
② On-chain analyst William Clemente stressed that the Bitcoin bull market is not over. Clemente said that the world’s best cryptocurrency Bitcoin is currently moving from week hand (small investor) to strong hand (institutional investor). “There is still a long way to go before it gets overheated. Keep it for a long time.”
③ Glassnode co-founder and on-chain analyst Rafael Schultz-Kraft expressed optimism, saying, “The current bull market is healthy with an unprecedented capital inflow into the Bitcoin space over the past six months.”
④Santiment, a cryptocurrency analysis company, said, “There are a total of 9.11 million bitcoins (approximately $531.3 billion) in 16,104 bitcoin whale addresses that currently hold 100-10,000 bitcoins. Especially these whale groups are Over the past two days, we have bought an additional 20,000 bitcoins.”
⑤ Lex Moskovski, Chief Information Officer of Moskovski Capital, said, “In the wallet range of 100 to 1,000,000, the number of bitcoins owned by whale addresses has finally resumed an uptrend. This kind of trend has resumed.” The accumulation (accumulation) of is often associated with organs.”
⑥ArcInvest, an asset management company in the United States, diagnosed in a recent official report that “the main reason is the increased interest of institutional investors, on-chain signals, and the imminent protocol upgrade.” As an analyst at Arc Investment said, “As Ethereum ETF (listed index fund) product in the Canadian stock market has increased, institutional investors are increasingly interested in ETH. In addition, the usage of the Ethereum network has recently increased markedly, and some indicators preceded Bitcoin,” said an analyst at Arc Investment. Also, ahead of major protocol upgrades, such as Ethereum Feature Proposal-1559 (EIP-1559) scheduled for July, contributed to the rise in ETH prices.
⑦ Cryptocurrency media, Cointelegraph, said, “The price of Ethereum surpassed $4,000 for the first time. However, the adoption of Ethereum, such as increased institutional interest and the recent issuance of digital bonds based on the Ethereum network by the European Investment Bank (EIB), decentralized The second-largest digital asset is unlikely to stop sharply rising soon due to the remarkable growth of finance (DeFi), the introduction of EIP-1559, a major infrastructure upgrade, and the expectation of a transition to ETH 2.0.”
⑧ Venture capitalist Spencer Noon said, “The rise in Ethereum price will not end until Ethereum becomes the most valuable asset in the world.” Forecast.
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>
Unlike Ethereum, which is hitting record highs every day, the daily price of Bitcoin in the recent adjustment period (see Figure 5-1) is trying to rebound near the moving average of the 20th while maintaining a weak trend on the same day, but selling rather than buying. Due to the large quantity, it is seldom rising.
Technically, it supports the lower part of the cloud belt and the 20-day moving average line of the I-mok balance chart and is seeking a rebound, and is in a position to expect a rebound after the decline. If the uptrend breaks through the top of the cloud band and the trend line in sequence, the resistance line at the $60,000 level is expected to become the first target for the uptrend.
When the previous day fell, the US CME bitcoin futures price declined without even filling the drop gap that formed in the $60,000 section, so it is expected that the bitcoin price will try to rise again to close it. Therefore, we will not know after that, but before the gap is filled, if a sudden price drop occurs as in the previous day, we should use it as an opportunity to buy at a low price rather than fear it. And, if it’s not a stock that’s not related to the market at all, we recommend that you anticipate and respond to the upward trend until bitcoin rises to about $61,000.
As we continue to emphasize, however, in the case of buying individual stocks, in the fast circulating market like now, it usually drops sharply after the market erupts, so it may be necessary to properly buy and sell timing. If you are a novice trader who is difficult to trade like this, seek the help of a professional analyst.
Today is the expiration date for the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two stocks is estimated at $57,000 and $4,040, respectively.
And, although put options are still strong, it is expected to continue to rise as call options at strike prices surged at $54,000 in the afternoon and call options at higher strike prices are spotted. Therefore, it seems likely that today’s option settlement price will still try to rise above the current level. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $56,238. As the current bitcoin market price is below the market price of the same day and $56,238, the opportunity to buy the same day is 1) when the market price recovers or breaks through $56,238 on the day 2) after supporting the moving average on the 20th, you can try to buy if an upward trend is detected due to the overall market strength. have. However, if the market price or $56,238 is broken on the day of recovery, you will have to sell the amount you bought and wait and see. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>
As of 14 o’clock on the 11th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’Buy’ and’Neutral’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit came out with five’buy’, one’sell’, and one’neutral’ opinion among the oscillator indicators, and a’buy’ opinion, and the moving average indicator was nine’buy’ and three. It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.
Looking at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 3,’Sell’ is 3, and’Neutral’ is sending a’Neutral’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 5, and ‘ ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Sell’ with 7 cases.
◆Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Weakness>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ fell 11 points from the previous day (72) to 61, maintaining the’greedy’ stage. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on May 11) <weak>
While Bitcoin’s weakness was maintained and Ethereum surged, the circulation of individual cryptocurrencies continued, but as the market declined, stocks that rapidly fluctuated one after another. Looking at the change in the returns of the 10th largest stocks since last Thursday, DOGE plunged 3,215.74% and Ripple (XRP) fell 121.13%, while Cardano (ADA) and Ethereum (ETH) fell 102.69% and 55.14, respectively. The rise and fall were mixed for each stock, such as rising by %. As of 14 o’clock on the 11th, DOGE ranked first with 7,973.59%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 1,588.92%, 3rd with Cardano (ADA) with 830.72% and Ripple (XRP) compared to the beginning of the year as of 14:00 on the 11th. ) Ranked 4th with 491.35% and Ethereum (ETH) 5th with 430.97%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <weak>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
If you look at indicator 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10, you can see that the bitcoin market has turned weaker in the short term as the trading volume declines and the sell volume increases further. However, as index 2 (ETH spot trading volume) maintains a steep upward trend, the Ethereum market is expected to continue a strong upward trend. However, in indicators 3 and 4, both stocks are expected to maintain an intraday bearish trend as both stocks’ total sales volume is higher than the total number of stocks and the price volatility indicators of the two stocks that have risen are downward.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>
Bitcoin prices remain weak and Ethereum prices remain strong. While the kimchi premium indexes of both stocks are rising, the gap between the stocks is maintained at the level of’observed’ for Bitcoin and’stable’ for Ethereum. However, since the absolute value of the Kimchi premium index has risen considerably in Ethereum, it seems to be observed whether it crosses when it falls. Therefore, we recommend that short-term investors maintain a wait-and-see view, and mid- to long-term investors maintain a buy view.
③ Analysis of the balance of bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <weakness>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. As the exchange’s bitcoin balance, measured in blocks, has maintained a continuous trend in recent years, the bitcoin price is expected to face resistance whenever it rises.
◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from all bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts fell from 19.88% at 10 o’clock. The position portion increased slightly to 23.64% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option)-17.31%: (put option) 6.87% to (call option)-14.15%: (put option) 3.64%. Is somewhat reduced, but the selling intensity remains the same.
On the other hand, in the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the down position was 9.13% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts. The proportion maintained the trend of increasing to 15.51% at 14:00, and in terms of premium, from 10:00 (call option)-3.84%: (put option)-15.36% to (call option)-9.10%: (put option)-12.58 As the call option selling premium increases in %, it is expected that the bitcoin price will move sideways or slightly decrease within a certain range until the maturity settlement (17:00).
◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 11th)
◇Deribit Bitcoin options status (as of 14:00 on the 11th)
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