◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
Sometime at the FOMC meeting, opinions were raised that it would be appropriate to start a discussion on a plan to adjust the speed of asset purchase, and coin prices, which had plummeted as China refused to incorporate virtual assets into the institutional sphere, are rebounding. As of 14:00 on the 20th, Bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency market cap based on the coin market cap, remains strong at $39,506.48, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $138 billion and a market cap of about $742.1 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.67 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 44.2%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 17.8%. The major stocks that show strength at this time are Thetacoin (THETA, 13.89%), Quantum (QTUM, 10.51%), Ripple (XRP, 9.39%), Engine Coin (ENJ, 9.19%), and Polka Dot (DOT, 8.46%). ), etc.
The U.S. stocks fell all at once last night when the possibility of a taper in the Federal Reserve (Fed) emerged for the first time. In the minutes of the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), members first mentioned the possibility of tapering, and the possibility of discussions on a contraction of the bond buying program also acted as downward pressure on the stock price. On the 19th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average Index and the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index fell 0.48% and 0.29%, respectively, from the previous trading day, and the technology stock-oriented NASDAQ index was also 0.03%. Fell.
The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 5.88% from the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased by 4.60% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin relatively stronger than Altcoin, and the market cap of Bitcoin increased by 7.40% compared to the previous day. Bitcoin’s market share increased by 1.40% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that the average increase rate of the altcoin was higher.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which started as a mixed trend, has fallen sharply and is rising sharply as a low-priced buying trend is inflow. While most cryptocurrency prices are rising, it is analyzed that the buying trend for large stocks is strong. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +4.99%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +4.53%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is +5.34%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC recorded +5.02%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +4.11%.
As of 14 o’clock on the 20th, the cumulative buy:sell transaction volume ratio of the last 24 hours of the last 24 hours was 24%:76%, indicating that there was a lot of selling tax, and it was analyzed that the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was also strong in the buying trend. . (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of Bitcoin futures was around -35.5, and the basis of backwardation and Ethereum futures was around +6.60. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. May futures traded at $39,350.0, up $10.0 (+0.03%) compared to the previous day.
39,350.0 +10.0 +0.03%
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>
As of 14:00 on the 20th, the cryptocurrency market price is rising. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 5,1183,000 won, up 1.60% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 3318,000 won, down 0.96%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market is declining based on coin market cap, and 9 out of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell 1.11% from the same time the day before to $39,506.48, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 14.21% to $2,560.52. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is trapped in fears of a sharp decline in the market price and that China may repeatedly crack down on cryptocurrency trading bans, but the bitcoin support line is at the level of 37,000 dollars, and if it falls below this point, the buying trend will continue to rush. It is expected to be. In fact, taking advantage of low-cost opportunities in a few days, a large number of bitcoins are being bought by MicroStrategy and the founders of Justin Suntron. However, it should be noted that the number of experts predicting a short-term weakness in the bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets is increasing.
(Positive opinion)
① Cash Wood, CEO of Arc Investments, maintained his existing forecast that Bitcoin will rise to $500,000 despite the ongoing sell-off. “Ark’s confidence in bitcoin is still high,” Wood said. “The prospect of bitcoin going up to $500,000 is the same,” he said. “Bitcoin is more likely to get ETF approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) due to the recent adjustment,” he said. “It’s because it’s relatively unlikely to get approval when the asset price hits an all-time high.” Explained the reason.
② Cryptocurrency analyst Ben Armstrong predicted that “there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin will rise to $300,000 each this year.” In this regard, he said, “Cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges currently trade bitcoin call options between $100,000 and $300,000. Professional traders are keen to buy these derivatives. Personally, the price of bitcoin is going to increase within this year,” he said. “I am confident that it will break the $300,000 mark.”
③Cryptocurrency exchange Luno’s CEO of BJ Aiya’s business development division said, “During the bull market of Bitcoin, a 30-40% price retreat is’normal.’ It was very expected (fall) after reaching the 64,000 dollar level. It’s the level,” he diagnosed. He then said, “There was an adjustment of about 35% in January of this year, and there was a similar decline even after the bitcoin price surge in 2017. The current bitcoin price is nearing the bottom,” he predicted, with a low of 38,000 to 40,000 dollars.
④Santiment, a cryptocurrency data analysis company, said, “Bitcoin is gaining the highest level of favorability in the past year from investors through this adjustment, which is why many traders have bought $40,000 at the bottom of bitcoin. “The dip) is the right thing to do.”
⑤ The cryptocurrency market is currently dealing with a flood of news alleging weak prices, said Ulrik Ricke, an executive at cryptocurrency hedge fund ARK36. He said that while Bitcoin’s market cap evaporated to over $250 billion last week, it appears to be a “astronomical” number, but in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, this movement is not uncommon. “Regarding the Bitcoin outlook, it may seem gloomy right now, but historically, the situation is just another obstacle for Bitcoin to overcome,” said Ricke. “Compared to the obstacles Bitcoin faced in the past, it is a small thing. ”Added.
⑥ Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said, “After Bitcoin plunged about 35% after hitting an all-time high last month, it went through a process of consolidation (flooding) for 4-6 weeks. It will be,” he diagnosed.
⑦ Binance CEO Changfeng Zhao ordered’HOLD’ twice amid a sharp decline in cryptocurrency prices. Changfeng Zhao tweeted #HOLD around 2:50 pm on the 19th. Chang Feng Zhao, who gave a clue that it wasn’t financial advice, attached the tweet and tweeted again. “I like that you trade a lot. That way, you will get a lot of transaction fees,” he said. For most of you, HOLD is the best strategy in the long run. Don’t buy and sell too much.’
(Negative opinion)
① JP Morgan’s digital asset analyst Nicolaos Panigirchoglow analyzed on the 19th (local time) that “investors in the bitcoin market have moved to gold futures.” “Institutional investors are exiting bitcoin and returning to the traditional gold market,” he wrote in his investment note. Gold futures prices have been on the rise recently. Gold futures prices steadily rose from the $1683 level at the end of March and recently broke above the $1,870 level. On this day, gold futures reached $1870.60, up 0.03% from the previous day.
② JPMorgan analyst said, “The size of the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures pending contract is declining markedly, accompanied by the largest liquidation since October last year. In May, the gold price rose by about 6%. In the wake of the coin decline, institutional investors appear to be rapidly selling their bitcoin holdings to hold gold, a traditional means of storing value.”
③Hwang Han, an analyst specializing in cryptocurrency, diagnosed, “Bitcoin has entered an intermediate stage adjustment, and it is recommended to buy at less than 35,000 USDT (Tether).” “The night before, the three major financial associations of China issued a statement warning of the risk of speculation in cryptocurrency, and the market judged this as a sign of strengthening regulations, resulting in bitcoin dropping more than 10% in 24 hours. Bitcoin entered this month,” he said. In addition, a decline in the tether premium was observed during this crash, which was not observed in the past year, suggesting that there is huge pressure to outflow, even if the market stabilizes in the short term. It will be difficult to expect a reversal of the uptrend.” However, he said, “the underlying liquidity of the market is still abundant. Personally, I think the current bearish market is in the middle of a correction. We recommend buying below 35,000 USDT.”
④Swissquote Bank Senior Analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said, “On the 19th, the bitcoin price fell below the 200-day moving average line. This means that downside risks may increase in the future.” Diagnosed. In this regard, he said, “technically, a red light has been lit across the market indicators related to the price of bitcoin. After the $37,000 line is broken, the next support line could be at the $30,000 line, and in the short term, bitcoin will fall to or below the $30,000 level. There are plenty of possibilities,” he analyzed.
⑤CryptoQuant CEO Joo Ju-young said, “The sell-off index of whales (large investors) reached the highest level in a year since March last year,” and said, “The situation where whales continue to deposit bitcoins on cryptocurrency exchanges.” This is usually interpreted as an act for mass monetization of cryptocurrency. “If this decline is a simple correction, the sell indicator will also stabilize again,” he added. “If not, we may have to test the bitcoin low again.”
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>
The daily bitcoin market price (see Figure 5-1) dropped to $30,000, followed by a mass trading volume the previous day, and then rebounded rapidly and is rising. Technically, it rises above the bottom of the Bollinger Band and rises toward the 5th moving average, and it is expected that the direction of the market price will be set again after reaching the 5th moving average and near the 2nd point of the Fibonacci retracement. In general, this can be regarded as a short-term low, but in most cases, a price decline is followed to confirm the low, but if the market price is not pushed much, it can be regarded as an upward turn.
While at the peak, there was no big concern, but it is a period of concern about the rising gap that U.S. CME Bitcoin futures (Figure 5-2) failed to fill at the beginning of the uptrend as the market price fell. Although the head-and-shoulder pattern is complete, a rebound is possible, but even if it rebounds here, it is closer to the $25,000 line where the lower gap is located, which is why the short-term outlook is not so bright even if bitcoin rises immediately.
Today is the expiration date of the daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange.As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two stock options is estimated at $38,000 and $2,900, respectively, in the morning and without change. While the prices of the two stocks have reached the expected settlement price level, the premium of both options of bitcoin has turned to a decline based on strike prices, and the Ethereum call option has turned to a decline in premium and the put option has turned to a bullish phase. It seems that attention should be paid as the market is expected to adjust in the afternoon. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has a significant price change for the day of $36,758. As the current bitcoin market price is rising above the market price of the same day and $36,758, the opportunity to buy the same day is 1) when it rebounds after supporting $37,351 during the intraday 2) when the high price breaks through the same day. However, if you break the high price of $37,351, which you supported, or the day it broke, you will have to sell the amount you bought and wait and see. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Weakness>
As of 14 o’clock on the 20th, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’active selling’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, two of the oscillator indicators of Upbit were’Buy’, 6’Sell’, and 0’Strong Sell’ opinions and’Sell’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 2’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’active sell’ opinion with 10’sells’.
If you look at the detailed items of Binance, two of the oscillator indicators are’Buy’, 7’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’, sending a’active sell’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ with 0, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’active selling’ with 12 cases.
◆Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Weakness>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ fell 12 points from the previous day (23) to 11, indicating the stage of’extreme fear’. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of May 20, 14:00) <Weakness>
Since last Tuesday, concerns over inflation in the US economy have continued, leading to an increasing avoidance of risky assets. Bitcoin price, which had fallen prior to this, plunged once again the day before. As of 14:00 on the 20th, the US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year was 24.69%, down 14.96% compared to last Tuesday. The dollar index, the S&P 500, and oil futures declined by 0.02%, 1.28% and 6.13%, respectively, while only gold futures rose 0.72%.
On the previous day, international oil prices fell sharply due to deteriorating investment sentiment on risky assets and news of an increase in crude oil stocks. On the 19th (Eastern Time), the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) produced in June at the New York Commercial Exchange was the lowest since April 27. It closed at $63.36 per barrel, which is the level. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.
◇Comparison of return by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of May 20, 14:00) <Weakness>
In two days, the price of bitcoin (Bitcoin, BTC), which is a cryptocurrency ledger, plummeted to the 30,000 dollar level, and the XRP, which had been well endured so far, also deviated from the 1 dollar level during the intraday. to be. As of 14 o’clock on the 20th, DOGE ranked first with 5,642.43% at the beginning of the year, Cardano (ADA) ranked 2nd with 759.90%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked 3rd with 757.23%, Ripple (XRP) ) Ranked 4th with 345.02% and Ethereum (ETH) 5th with 212.75%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Strengthening>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
Looking at indicator 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10, the increased selling volume turned into a long beekeeping and declining trend on the day, while the buying volume, which had declined in indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume), turned to an increase again with an uptrend on the day. You can confirm that it is done. In particular, since both indicators 3 and 4 recorded the most sales volume in recent years the previous day, there is a high possibility that the previous day will reach a short-term low and will close higher on the day. In addition, the price volatility index, which had been declining, began to turn upward to support this. Of course, it is not possible to determine that a sharp rebound will occur solely based on the trading volume, so it seems that other indicators should also be reviewed to respond.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <weak>
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell sharply, crossing the kimchi premium index. The kimchi premium index of the two stocks generally showed stable movement. Even after the crossing, the kimchi premium index of the two stocks remains high and there is a concern about a further decline.Until the bubble disappears, the two stocks are regularly observed and paid attention, while short-term investors are on hold, and mid- and long-term investors are $30,000. We recommend buying from below.
③ Analysis of the balance of bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <weakness>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. Bitcoin price is falling after peaking on April 15th, and bitcoin balances on major exchanges are rising after hitting lows on April 19th, and this trend is sustained even though Bitcoin price plummeted. The current downtrend is expected to continue for some time before the bitcoin balance destined for the exchange decreases again.
◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from all bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts fell from 9.13% at 10 o’clock. The proportion of positions slightly increased to 11.93% at 14:00, and on a premium basis, from 10:00 (call option) 2.25%: (put option) -29.53% to (call option) 0.30%: (put option) -32.04% It is analyzed that the options market participants expect the market to turn weaker than the present day, with the proportion of option purchases decreasing and the proportion of selling put options increasing.
In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding pledges aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the percentage of bearish positions, which was 3.58% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts, was It increases to 6.06% at 14 o’clock, and at 10 o’clock (call option) 4.32%: (put option) -21.67% at 10 o’clock (call option) 1.75%: (put option) -22.54%, the proportion of selling both options is higher. It is expected that the bitcoin price will increase and show a sideways movement or a slight increase within a certain range until the payment due (17:00).
◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (at 14:00 on the 20th)
◇Deribit Bitcoin options status (as of 14:00 on the 20th)
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