Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 6.31% over the past week.
- An analyst noted further downside, citing the Pi Cycle MA.
- BTC experienced a slight recovery in the past 24 hours, rising by 0.92%.
- On monthly charts, Bitcoin has been in an uptrend, increasing by 8.18%.
- Market sentiment remains bearish, with indicators suggesting further decline.
Recent Price Action
Bitcoin’s recent price action has been a rollercoaster, defying the typical October uptrend. Over the past week, BTC has seen a sharp decline, dropping by 6.31%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $61,436. This decline has left many in the crypto community puzzled, especially given the historical trend of October being a bullish month for Bitcoin.
However, the past 24 hours have brought a glimmer of hope. Bitcoin’s price charts show a slight recovery, with a 0.92% increase. Despite this, the overall trend remains uncertain. On a monthly scale, Bitcoin has been on an uptrend, rising by 8.18%. This mixed performance has sparked various discussions among analysts and traders.
Analyst Insights
One notable voice in the crypto community, Rekt Capital, has suggested that Bitcoin might be heading for further downside. According to his analysis, BTC is facing continuous rejection from the Pi Cycle Moving Average (MA). This technical indicator, which uses the 111-day and 350-day moving averages, has historically been effective in predicting market tops and bottoms.
Rekt Capital’s analysis indicates that as long as the Pi Cycle MA acts as resistance, Bitcoin will likely continue its downtrend. He pointed out that BTC will confirm this downtrend if it tags the light blue downtrend line, especially if the current trend persists. Despite the bearish outlook, there are signs that buyers are starting to accumulate, as evidenced by a 4-hour bullish divergence forming on the charts.
Market Sentiment
The current market sentiment is a crucial factor in Bitcoin’s price movement. Bitcoin’s exchange supply ratio has spiked recently, rising from 0.1304 to 0.131. This increase suggests that more investors are depositing their assets into exchanges, likely to sell. Such behavior typically exerts downward pressure on prices, especially if selling activities intensify.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Long/Short difference has been declining over the past week, dropping from 4.3% to 3.2%. This decline indicates weaker confidence among long-term holders, as their profitability margins shrink. The shift suggests a bearish sentiment, with long-term holders less incentivized to maintain their positions.
Open Interest and Market Behavior
Further illustrating the lack of confidence among investors is the declining Open Interest (OI) per exchange. OI has dipped from $6.1 billion to $5.2 billion, indicating that investors are closing their positions without opening new ones. This behavior underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin’s recent price action has been marked by volatility and uncertainty. Despite a slight recovery in the past 24 hours, the overall trend remains bearish. Key indicators such as the Pi Cycle MA, exchange supply ratio, MVRV Long/Short difference, and Open Interest all point towards a potential further decline. If these conditions persist, Bitcoin may find its next support around the $58,272 resistance level. A trend reversal could see BTC reclaim $62,700, but for now, caution remains the watchword for traders and investors.
