- Bitcoin has lost 24% of its value relative to gold since its 2021 peak, according to Peter Schiff.
- Over a 10-year period, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by over 12,000%, but in 2025, it lost 32% of its value against gold.
- Gold ETFs have surpassed U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in market cap, driven by a 12% spike in gold’s value in 2025.
- Analysts like Eric Balchunas predict Bitcoin ETFs will eventually triple gold ETFs, despite recent setbacks.
- Bitcoin’s correlation with gold decoupled in early 2025, influenced by external factors like U.S. tariff wars.
Bitcoin’s Relative Decline Against Gold
Peter Schiff, a long-time critic of Bitcoin, recently highlighted that the cryptocurrency has been in a “stealth bear market” when compared to gold. He noted that one Bitcoin now buys 27.7 ounces of gold, a significant drop from the 36.3 ounces it could purchase at its peak in 2021. This represents a 24% decline in Bitcoin’s value relative to gold over the past three and a half years. Schiff’s analysis suggests that gold has been a more stable store of value during this period, especially as Bitcoin’s price has been volatile.
However, it’s important to consider the broader context. While Schiff’s observations are accurate for the timeframe he selected, Bitcoin has historically outperformed gold by a wide margin. Over the last decade, Bitcoin’s value has surged by over 12,000% compared to gold. Even in the last two years, Bitcoin has seen a 200% increase against gold. This long-term performance underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a high-growth asset, despite its recent struggles.
Gold’s Resurgence in 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, gold has emerged as a stronger store of value compared to Bitcoin. The BTC/gold chart shows that Bitcoin lost 32% of its value relative to gold, dropping from 41 to 28. This decline coincided with gold reaching a new high of $3,000 per ounce, while Bitcoin erased gains from the so-called “Trump pump.” The cryptocurrency’s performance has been further impacted by external factors, including U.S. tariff wars and market volatility.
The resurgence of gold is also evident in the institutional investment landscape. Gold ETFs have surpassed the collective market cap of U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, a shift attributed to gold’s 12% price spike in 2025. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described this as “The Empire strikes back,” highlighting gold’s renewed dominance in the asset class hierarchy. Despite this, Balchunas remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential, predicting that Bitcoin ETFs will eventually triple the size of gold ETFs.
Bitcoin’s Decoupling from Gold
One notable development in early 2025 was the decoupling of Bitcoin from gold, as indicated by the BTC Pearson correlation indicator. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin’s price movements are no longer closely tied to those of gold, marking a significant shift in their relationship. Instead, Bitcoin has been more influenced by external factors such as U.S. equities and geopolitical events, including the ongoing tariff wars initiated by the Trump administration.
This decoupling has led to mixed opinions among analysts. While some, like Peter Schiff, view it as a sign of Bitcoin’s weakness, others see it as an opportunity for the cryptocurrency to establish its own identity as a distinct asset class. Popular analyst Peter Brandt has sided with the latter view, projecting that Bitcoin will outperform gold by over 120% in the coming years. Brandt’s optimism is based on bullish patterns observed on the BTC/gold chart, which suggest potential for significant upside.
Conclusion
The comparison between Bitcoin and gold reveals a complex and evolving relationship. While Bitcoin has experienced a relative decline against gold in recent years, its long-term performance remains impressive. Gold’s resurgence in 2025, driven by a 12% price spike and increased institutional interest, has temporarily overshadowed Bitcoin. However, analysts like Eric Balchunas and Peter Brandt believe that Bitcoin’s potential for growth far exceeds that of gold, despite the challenges it currently faces. As the two assets continue to decouple, Bitcoin’s ability to carve out its own niche in the financial landscape will be crucial to its future success.
