- Bitcoin has surged close to the $100,000 milestone, reaching $97,000 for the first time since February.
- On-chain data reveals that short-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin in a pattern similar to previous major rallies.
- Long-term holders are increasing their supply, reducing selling pressure in the current price range.
- A rebound in U.S. dollar liquidity is positively correlated with Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
- Technical indicators, including the Super Trend and moving averages, signal a bullish market environment.
Bitcoin’s Ascent Toward $100,000: A New Chapter
Bitcoin’s recent price action has reignited excitement across the crypto landscape, as the digital asset soared to $97,000—a level not seen since February. This move places Bitcoin just 3.5% away from the highly anticipated $100,000 threshold, a psychological and technical milestone that has eluded the market for years. The current rally is not occurring in isolation; it is underpinned by a confluence of on-chain and macroeconomic factors that suggest the next leg up may be imminent.
The significance of this price surge extends beyond mere numbers. It reflects a broader shift in market sentiment, with both retail and institutional participants closely monitoring the evolving landscape. As Bitcoin inches closer to six figures, the question on everyone’s mind is whether this momentum can be sustained and what forces are driving this renewed optimism.
Short-Term Holders: The Spark Behind the Rally
A closer look at blockchain data reveals a compelling narrative: short-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for one day to one week—are accumulating at a pace reminiscent of previous bull runs. This accumulation trend, observed in the second quarter of 2025, mirrors the patterns that preceded significant price rallies in both early and late 2024. Historically, when these short-term investors ramp up their buying, it has often been a precursor to explosive upward moves in Bitcoin’s price.
The underlying psychology is straightforward. Short-term holders tend to be more reactive to market signals, and their collective behavior can serve as an early indicator of broader market shifts. When their accumulation reaches new highs, it often signals growing confidence and a willingness to bet on further gains. If this pattern persists, Bitcoin could be poised to break through the $100,000 barrier and enter a new phase of price discovery.
Long-Term Holders: Reducing the Supply Overhang
While short-term holders are fueling the immediate rally, long-term holders are quietly shaping the market’s foundation. Over the past month, investors who have held Bitcoin for more than six months have added approximately 150,000 BTC to their holdings. This steady accumulation is significant because it reduces the available supply for trading, especially in the $80,000 to $100,000 range.
The behavior of long-term holders often reflects deep conviction in Bitcoin’s future value. As these investors continue to accumulate, the market experiences less selling pressure from those looking to take profits. This dynamic creates a more favorable environment for price appreciation, as fewer coins are available to satisfy growing demand. The result is a tightening supply that can amplify upward price movements when new buyers enter the market.
The Role of U.S. Dollar Liquidity: A Macro Tailwind
Beyond on-chain metrics, macroeconomic factors are also playing a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s current trajectory. One of the most influential variables is U.S. dollar liquidity. Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between increases in dollar liquidity and Bitcoin price rallies. For instance, the surge in liquidity during 2020 and 2021 coincided with Bitcoin’s meteoric rise from $3,500 to $69,000.
After a period of contraction in late 2024 and early 2025, U.S. dollar liquidity appears to be rebounding in the second quarter of 2025. This resurgence is critical because it provides market participants with more capital to deploy into risk assets like Bitcoin. If this trend continues, it could serve as a powerful catalyst, driving additional bids and supporting further price gains.
Technical Indicators: Bulls in Control
From a technical perspective, the market structure remains firmly bullish. The 4-hour Super Trend indicator is currently flashing a ‘buy’ signal, reinforcing the positive outlook. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price is trading above key moving averages, a classic sign that buyers are in control and that the path of least resistance is upward.
These technical signals, when combined with supportive on-chain and macroeconomic trends, paint a picture of a market that is primed for further gains. Traders and investors alike are watching closely, as a decisive break above $100,000 could trigger a new wave of enthusiasm and capital inflows.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s approach to the $100,000 mark is the result of a complex interplay between short-term accumulation, long-term conviction, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The alignment of these factors has created a fertile environment for continued price appreciation. As both on-chain and technical indicators lean bullish, the prospect of Bitcoin entering a new era above $100,000 appears increasingly likely. The coming weeks will be critical, as the market tests this historic level and sets the stage for the next chapter in Bitcoin’s evolution.
