[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] A sharp increase in sell quantity from $50,000 of Bitcoin is caught… Attention needs

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>

The cryptocurrency market, which started out strong, is showing a weak trend after returning the gains on the previous day. In a similar pattern as two days ago, it appears that the buying and selling forces are fighting a battle ahead of the $50,000 recovery. Signs of changes in the stock market due to the recent increase in US Treasury yields and the dollar value also emerged as a big variable. This is because there are a large number of institutional investors who have bought bitcoins in bulk since last year to hedge against dollar depreciation and inflation.

According to data from on-chain data provider Cryptoquant, bitcoin suddenly flowed into major exchanges just before the plunge from an all-time high on the 22nd of last month, and the current rise began after this volume was almost exhausted. However, caution is required as the sales volume begins to increase again (see page 15,’Analysis of Mass Transaction Volumes According to On-chain Indicators After Bitcoin’s Plunge).

Last night, the US New York Stock Market rebounded as the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which had declined over the past three days, approached 1.5% during the week, pulling down tech stocks. It was a relatively large increase from the 1.4% drop the previous day. Accordingly, the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average fell 121.43 points (0.39%) from the battlefield to 31,270.09, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index fell 50.57 points (1.31%) to 3819.72, and the technology stocks Nasdaq index was 361.04 points (2.7%). ) The market ended at 1,2997.75, which plummeted.

As of 14:00 on the 4th, the price of bitcoin based on CoinMarket Cap is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $55.4 billion, and the market cap is about $925.6 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $1.53 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 60.9%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 11.8%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 1.00% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 0.57% compared to the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and the market cap of bitcoin decreased by 1.26% compared to the previous day. It is analyzed that altcoins are falling less than bitcoins in the market as a whole, as the share of the company decreased by 0.27% compared to the previous day.

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started weakly turned to a sharp rise with the inflow of buying after about 30 minutes, but it peaked at around 11:30 and then began to push back and turned down again around 12:30. done. When it fell from the peak, the selling price for Bitcoin was strong, but as of 14:00, it was analyzed that the selling price was spreading throughout the market regardless of the stock.

W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -1.17%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -0.88%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is -1.13%, and WMC, a medium-sized stock-oriented index- WSC, an index centered on 0.97% small stocks, recorded -0.91%.

As of 14 o’clock on the 4th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours was 47%:53%, and the sell ratio was high.As of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was also analyzed to be strong on average. . (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, the basis of bitcoin futures on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX is around -27.0, and the basis of Ethereum futures is around -1.60. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. March futures traded at $49,905.0, down $995.0 (-1.95%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 4th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price declined 0.58% from the previous day to 5,7624,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) rose 0.25% to 1.8 million won, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 0.47% to 42,730 won. Recorded. Ada (ADA) fell 1.77% to 1,385 won, Ripple (XRP) fell 2.17% from the previous day to 495 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 0.30% to 598,000 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) fell 1.24% to 480 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 33,950 won, down 1.99% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 215,000 won, down 0.21%.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise among the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $49,661.26, up 1.98% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 2.42% to $1,558.39, and Cardano (ADA) fell 2.64% to $1.20. Binance Coin (BNB) rose 0.38% from the previous day to $240.68, Polkadot (DOT) rose 0.83% to $37.26, Ripple (XRP) rose 1.83% to $0.4451, Litecoin (LTC) rose 2.18% to $185.94, and Chainlink (LINK) rose 0.04% to $29.26, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 0.72% to $517.28.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>

The direct reason that the Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered to the $50,000 mark the previous day seems to be due to demand again outpacing the supply of the exchange and miners stopped selling. In addition, as companies such as NASDAQ listed companies MicroStrategy and Twitter are increasingly buying bitcoin, it is also positive that expectations for a price increase are higher than ever. Expert opinion is clearly divided into rising and falling. Of course, it doesn’t mean a turnaround to a bear market, but it will always be wise to prepare for a correction market.

(Positive opinion)

① Matthew Dibb, co-founder and Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Stack, a virtual asset tracking agency and index fund provider, said, “The overall trend of Bitcoin is still strong.” If it exceeds it, it will lay the groundwork for breaking the previous high of $58,332,” he predicted. However, he pointed out, “If US bond yields resume their recent uptrend and stock prices fall, Bitcoin will not be able to hit an all-time high.”

② AMB Crypto, a media specialized in cryptocurrency, diagnosed, “The price resilience was confirmed by establishing a position at the level above 47,000 dollars in the last 24 hours after Bitcoin recently fell to the 43,000 dollar level.” Regarding this, renowned cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo explained, “It is still too early to predict whether Bitcoin will enter a new bull market, but the buying trend above $45,000 is a strong sign of price stability.”

③Cryptocurrency Media CoinDesk quoted data from Glassnode, a cryptocurrency market data analysis company, saying, “Institutions are buying more bitcoins than are being mined.” As a result, the amount of bitcoin that can be traded is decreasing, which could lead to a surge in price,” he diagnosed.

④ Swiss-based option analysis platform Laevitas said Monday that some block traders called the target price of $75,000~100,000, due on May 28 through the Over-the-Counter (OTC) trading and settlement desk paradigm (Paradigm). ) Options have a bullish call spread,” he said. “This could be a bet on the expectation that the bitcoin will reach at least $75,000 by this summer.”

⑤ Glassnode co-founder and on-chain analyst Rafael Schultzcraft said, “The increase in illiquid bitcoins is a positive sign.” “Currently, 14.5 million BTC is illiquid. On the other hand, there are only 4 million illiquid bitcoins. “Insisted.

(Neutral opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhyay said, “If the bitcoin buyers push the BTC price above the 20th exponential moving average (EMA, $47,441), it could rise to $52,000.” However, if the EMA collapses on the 20th, the BTC/USD pair could push the price of the BTC/USD pair to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA, $41,066), and if the decline continues after that, it could retreat to the intraday low of $38,000 on February 8.” And analyzed.

(Negative opinion)

① Coinnis special analyst’JIn’s Crypto’ diagnosed, “Because the number of bitcoin active addresses and short-term transaction activity are still low, it is too early to judge that bitcoin is completely out of the adjustment phase.” The media said, “The number of bitcoin active addresses has increased to a maximum of 1.34 million on January 6, and has not broken the previous peak until March 4. The number of new addresses has also not exceeded the 682,000 notice recorded on January 7. “This means that in terms of fundamentals, the bitcoin price is still in the period of momentum accumulation.”

② John Ng Pangilinan, managing partner of Signum Capital based in Singapore, said, “Bitcoin needs to secure a foothold above the 50,000 dollar level to resume a wider uptrend and a new record. We will be able to move toward the enemy high point,” he diagnosed.

③ US left-wing tycoon Elizabeth Warren, Democratic Party Senator Elizabeth Warren, warned, “Bitcoin is highly speculative in nature. Bitcoin will eventually be blown up, with bad results.”

④ Cryptocurrency analyst Michael Van Defov said that a similar move could be repeated as Bitcoin fell to $43,000 after being blocked by the $48,000 resistance recently and returned to the $48,000 level due to buying pressure. In the process, it is expected that there is a possibility of a temporary plunge of around 20%. He pointed out that if Bitcoin fails to maintain its current support level of $45,000, it could fall in the $37,000 to $40,000 range.

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Weakness>

Bitcoin daily market price (see Figure 6), which started strong following the surge the previous day, is being pushed back in the aftermath of short-term sales openings following the surge, deviating from the 20th moving average and falling to the 5th and 10th moving averages. Even today, there is not much trading volume, so it can be seen as a process of volume digestion, but the differences from last Tuesday are: 1) the recovery of the 20th moving average line was again given, and 2) the capture of the bulk sales volume confirmed in on-chain data.

Of course, since it is an intraday decline, if the closing price rises again and recovers the 20-day moving average, item 1) will be resolved. However, the emergence of 2) large-scale sales during this period is bound to be taken as a short-term bad news. This is because the current market decline means that there is no room to handle this quantity. Reflecting this, the combined bitcoin option put/call ratio in major markets as of 14:00 in the option market is 1.254.

Technically, there is a high possibility of reorienting after moving sideways between the 5th and 20th moving average lines, but please refrain from trading as it is likely to show anomalous movements in this section. As mentioned in the report on Tuesday, the short-term trend can be expected to rise, but the medium-term trend of at least one to three months is expected to go through a correction period as the daily market has diverged with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). (The estimated timing of the start of decline and the estimated price of reaching the end of the decline by simulation will be provided to Aimrich paid members only through our experts)

Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was predicted to be $49,869 and $1,560, respectively, as of 14:00. In the case of Bitcoin, this price is near the moving average price on the 20th of the day, and Ethereum is near the market price of the day.

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $50,388. Bitcoin’s current price is at the market price of the day and below this price, so you can buy it if the market price is $48,109 and recovers the market price of the day. However, if not, you have to wait and see. This is because sales are accumulated starting at $50,000 above the moving average on the 20th. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 4th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’active buy’ and’buy’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 6 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 1’Sell’, and 2’Neutral’ opinions, and’Active Buy’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 12’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.

Looking at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 5,’Sell’ is 2, and’Neutral’ is 2, sending a’buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, and ‘ ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with zero.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

The’Fear and Greed Index’ provided by the cryptocurrency data provider Alternative.me was 84 points, up 6 points from the previous day, maintaining the’extreme greed level’ as the previous day. This indicates that investor sentiment is still extremely overheated. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism.

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on March 4) <Neutral>

Along with the bitcoin price recovery, US CME bitcoin futures returns are also rising. As of 14:00 on the 4th, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year was 61.33%, up 6.43% compared to last Tuesday, maintaining the No. 1 ranking among the assessed asset classes. Oil futures in second place fell by 1.35% for two days despite the previous day’s gains, as the decline was large on Tuesday. During the same period, the dollar index and gold futures remained weak, and the S&P 500 index fell 2.22% on the back of rising US Treasury yields.

On the previous day, the 10-year US Treasury bond rate reached 1.5% during the intraday, rising. By the close of the stock market, it traded at the 1.47% level. Despite OPEC’s policy to increase production the day before, international oil prices turned to rising as reports that some oil-producing countries are considering ways to maintain production cuts.

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on March 4) <Neutral>

As bitcoin prices rebounded, most cryptocurrency prices maintained an uptrend, but the rise was still limited and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) changed rankings with Stellar (XLM) to rank 10th. As of 14:00 on the 4th, Cardano (ADA) ranked first with 601.66%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked second with 557.93%, Polkadot (DOT) ranked third with 360.07%, and Chainlink (LINK) ranked 157.84% And Ethereum (ETH) ranked 5th with 156.84%.

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of bitcoin transaction volume on the day <weak>

Analyzing the trading volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Index 1 in Figure 13 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini). Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

Bitcoin market price rose strongly in the morning, but when it did not exceed the previous day’s trading volume, it was spotted as it turned to black and fell. (Refer to Index 1 in Figure 13) However, there seems to be no need to worry much about the current decline as futures trading volume did not increase trending in the rising period from the recent low. (Refer to Indicator 2 in Figure 13)

Looking at the indicator in Figure 14, it can be seen that the total number of sales is higher than the total number of purchases, and the price volatility is moving in the downward direction, so it is not yet known whether the increase is closed on the same day. Today is the expiration date of daily Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the DRBT exchange, and the expected settlement price for both stocks is estimated at $49,869 and $1,560, respectively, as of 14:00.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <weak>

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum are recovering their prices, the kimchi premium index also seldom declines due to the rise in value. Bitcoin is different from the index, but Ethereum is often spotted crossing without much difference. If this is the case, it is highly likely that the current price increase for each stock will be strong and will only be short-lived. Therefore, it is recommended to shorten the profit target and respond until the crossover phenomenon is significantly improved.

③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators after bitcoin plunge <weak>

Figure 17 shows the trend of the Bitcoin balance held by major exchanges. It can be seen that the transaction volume has increased a lot as the recent bitcoin plunged after the all-time high, which appears to have been deposited to the exchange to dispose of the bitcoin held in an external wallet. As you can see in the figure, most of the volume that had increased during the decline as of 14 o’clock on the 4th was exhausted. By the way, it was detected that a mass sale appeared at more than 50,000 dollars on the day, and after the appearance of this quantity, bitcoin and the market are falling. In addition to this, it is expected that the future direction of the market will be assessed depending on whether additional sales volume will flow in.

Figure 18, contrary to Figure 17, shows the amount of money that has been leaked from Coinbase, the US cryptocurrency exchange, as the bitcoin price has fallen from an all-time high. The average purchase price was about $48,000, and it was confirmed that on March 2nd, a large quantity of purchases equal to the sum of the existing purchases was added. This can be viewed as a long-term investor mainly for institutions, etc., so it acts as a very positive factor for the rise of bitcoin price.

◇ Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>

Looking at the result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 18), we can see from 10:52.38% to 14:00 11.60% based on the number of contracts. %, and in terms of premium, it changed from 36.38% (buy call option):35.76% (sell put option) to 0.48% (buy call option):-18.92% (sell put option) at 10 o’clock. In the aftermath of the plunge in prices, it is estimated that the ratio of selling put options is maintained without a premium for call options.

Since the sell volume of the put option is maintained, the buying force is expected to increase the bitcoin price until the settlement time of maturity. Therefore, the bitcoin price on the afternoon of the day is expected to rebound after forming a trough near the moving average on the 5th and 10th. do. However, it is still unclear whether the rising trend will break above the moving average on the 20th of the day. This is because the estimated price by simulation of our laboratory is around $50,000.

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