[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Conditions for Bitcoin’s uptrend and next uptrend?

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>

The cryptocurrency market is falling for the third consecutive day. Bitcoin (BTC), the number one market capitalization company, has been plunging right after it surged to the 61,000 dollar mark last weekend. This seems to be because profit-taking sales increased as the price exceeded $60,000. Earlier, Bitcoin recorded a record high of $61,558 on the 14th. Some believe that the total illegalization of cryptocurrencies in India affected this decline, but it is unlikely that cryptocurrency, which is the basic ideology of decentralization, will not be significantly affected by the state’s actions, so the view as a normal market adjustment period is not Many.

Last night, the US New York Stock Market ended higher at the same time, stabilizing the 10-year Treasury bond yield in anticipation of an economic recovery. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 1.63% over the weekend, but further gains have been limited since then. On this day, it fell to around 1.61%, showing a relatively calm flow. On the 15th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average rose 0.53% from the battlefield, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index rose 0.65%, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index rose 1.05%. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes hit all-time highs.

As of 14:00 on the 16th, the price of Bitcoin based on CoinMarket Cap is $54,571.33, the 24-hour trading volume is about $71 billion, and the market cap is about $1.22 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.67 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 60.8%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 12.1%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 2.17% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 1.89% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin weaker than Altcoin, and Bitcoin’s market cap decreased by 2.34% compared to the previous day. The market share declined by 0.18% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that the rate of decline in bitcoin was greater than the average rate of decline in altcoins.

Meanwhile, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market fell sharply as the selling trend increased after the start of the uptrend, and then steadily rose from the trough, but fell further as sales were introduced again around 2 o’clock. In addition, it was analyzed that the selling price of bitcoin is strong and selling of small stocks is concentrated within altcoins.
As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -1.58%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -0.85%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is -1.63%, and a medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded -0.97%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded -2.58%.

As of 14 o’clock on the 16th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours was 46%:54%, which showed a high selling ratio, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was also analyzed to be strong on average. . (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around -25.5 and the basis of backwardation and Ethereum futures was around +1.65. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. March futures traded at $54,922.5, down $1977.5 (-3.48%) from the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 16th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price rose 0.37% from the previous day to 6471 million won, Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.30% to 2011,000 won, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 1.01% to 40,120 won. Recorded. Ada (ADA) rose 2.52% from the previous day to 1,220 won, Ripple (XRP) rose by 15.45% from the previous day to 582 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 3.25% to 625,000 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) rose 5.86%. 471 won, Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 32,860 won, up 3.11% compared to the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 238,400 won, up 2.39%.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is falling for eight of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $54,571.33, down 9.66% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) fell 6.64% to $1,759.13, while Binance Coin (BNB) fell 6.56% to $248.70. Cardano (ADA) fell 2.50% from the previous day to $1.04, Polkadot (DOT) fell 11.69% to $33.61, Ripple (XRP) rose 2.51% to $0.4545, Uniswap (UNI) fell 7.23% to $28.88, Light Coin (LTC) fell 10.04% to $197.95, and Chainlink (LINK) fell 5.95% to $27.50.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>

The market fluctuates as the news of India’s introduction of the’Cryptocurrency Ban Act’ that completely bans cryptocurrency transactions, the claims of the Indian government officials are mixed. On the 15th (local time), Reuters cited an anonymous high-ranking government official and reported that “the Indian government is pushing for a bill to ban all activities related to cryptocurrency holding, trading, and mining.” But on the same day, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in an interview with a local media outlet that “we will not close all options” and “will allow us to try blockchains and cryptocurrencies,” which confused the market. This is getting weighted.

Many experts believe that the reason for the plunge in bitcoin was that profit-taking sales were poured out when the coin price exceeded $60,000, and it is a temporary correction market.

(Positive opinion)

① Cryptocurrency specialty media BeinCrypto said, “Bitcoin broke an all-time high at $61,781 on the 13th (local time), but it is currently weak and is testing the support lines of $58,000 and $54,550.” However, key trend indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence and Diffusion Index (MACD) and Stochastic Oscillator are strong, which will allow the rally to resume from the potential target price of $66,500 to $72,300.”

2) Crypto Finance AG’s trading head Patrick Heuser rated Bitcoin’s fall in price as a routine adjustment. He pointed out that traders using leverage were leading the way when Bitcoin broke the $60,000 mark just before.

③ Wall Street financial critic Max Keizer predicted that “Bitcoin can replace the 5 trillion dollar foreign exchange market as a new key currency.” In addition, he added, “Recently, Citibank’s report said that bitcoin is changing from a payment method to a store of value, but I think it is changing from a store of value to a method of payment.” As a global payment method,” he explained.

④ Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, a US cryptocurrency exchange, said, “The US stimulus funds will flow into Bitcoin,” and predicted that the bullish rally of Bitcoin will continue in the future.

⑤ American day trader Dave Portnoy confessed, “I failed to invest in bitcoin. My view of bitcoin in the early days of investment was wrong.” He said, “Congratulations to everyone who bought and held Bitcoin before. I was a Paper Hand (a person who couldn’t take a risk taking stocks and sold them in a sudden drop) and lost money in the short term. “I couldn’t stand it and eventually lost my bitcoin. I didn’t know bitcoin, and I failed to invest.”

⑥ Market analyst Lark Davis said of the sudden retreat of bitcoin, “Whales with more than 1,000 bitcoins are selling bitcoin, but this does not mean the end of the bull market.” I will do it.”

⑦ Anthony Pompliano, founder of Morgan Creek Digital Asset, an asset manager specializing in cryptocurrency in the United States, and one of the bitcoin enthusiasts, emphasized that “Bitcoin is the top predator in the financial market.” “Bitcoin is the best asset that can generate significant growth for companies with larger assets under management. Bitcoin has seen an average annual price increase of more than 200% over the past 10 years. Today, the world is making unprecedented amounts of money,” he said. They are looking for a safe asset to hedge (hedge) the depreciation of the currency. In the end, Bitcoin is the answer.”

(Negative opinion)

① Coinnis special analyst’JIn’s Crypto’ said, “Bitcoin failed to win $60,000. In the process of bitcoin rebounding and falling back, the transaction volume decreased, and funds were outflowed to Tether (USDT) and USD. It means that investors started to cash in on short-term cash, which means that selling sentiment is dominant,” he advised. “At the moment, risk control is the top priority.”

②CEO Ki-Young Ju (CEO) of CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency data analysis company, commented, “If the buying trend continues to come from stablecoins, it is not good for the bull market.” “If the stablecoins in the exchange are depleted, the uptrend will end.” Told.

◆Comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin market price <weakness>

Bitcoin daily market price (see Figure 6) has continued to plunge for three consecutive days and is attempting a strong rebound. It continues to be strong day after day. However, unfortunately, if there is no confirmation of the support of the moving average on the 20th and hastily rebounded, it leaves room for another drop to the low end of the day if the buying trend that breaks the moving average on the 5th and 10th does not flow in.

The daily trend of Bitcoin in the picture has an upward wedge pattern, so it is not time to worry about a trending decline in the current position. This is because you need to be careful when descending after forming the peak. Therefore, it can be said that the optimal buying time is the 20-day moving average support point, which is about $51,900 based on the current Binance BTCUSDT pair price, which technically coincides with the four Fibonacci retracement points.

On the other hand, in the process of rising and falling just before, the amount of profits for bitcoin occurred, and the conditions for Ethereum’s rise naturally were created. Currently, the balance of Ethereum on major exchanges is at an all-time low, and the price volatility of Ethereum is also waiting for a rebound from the lowest. Therefore, if Bitcoin’s low point is confirmed, it is expected to be a good option to try to buy Ethereum rather than Bitcoin.

Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was predicted to be around US$56,000 and US$1,800, respectively, as of 14:00. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $56,946. As Bitcoin’s current market price is below the current price and this price, it is safe to try when the market price 1) recovers from the previous day and 2) recovers the market price of the day. However, even if the daily trend is declining and the market price recovers, if it does not properly cross the 10-day or 5-day moving average line, it may fall in the direction of the 20-day moving average line, so you should be cautious about buying until you confirm support of the 20-day moving average line. . For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 16th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, all showed’active buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit came out with 7’buy’, 0’sell’, and 1’neutral’ opinion among the oscillator indicators, and’active buy’ opinion, and the moving average indicator was 8’buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with four’sell’.

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 6,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 2, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 8, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ into 4 pieces.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ recorded 71, down 5 points from the previous day (76). Two-hearted deterioration slightly deteriorated, and the transition from extreme greed to greed. The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear of the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of March 16, 14:00) <Strengthening>

Ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 16th and 17th (local time), the 10-year Treasury bond rate stabilized downward, and the preference for risky assets resumed. However, as the dollar index and interest rates remain high, the recent surge in bitcoin prices fell sharply, and as of 14:00 on the 16th, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year was only 80.35%, up 0.90% from last Thursday.

The dollar index rose slightly due to a weak euro, but the market as a whole is likely to focus more on resuming risk appetite. The US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate started at 1.637% and rose to 1.639% during the intraday, but stabilized downward from 1.610%, leading to increased preference for risky assets. Meanwhile, all comparative asset classes have risen since last Thursday, and the detailed rate of increase and rate of return are as follows.

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of March 16, 14:00) <Strengthening>

As the bitcoin price plummeted over the two days, the price of most cryptocurrencies also fell. The decline of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization was also significant. As of 14:00 on the 16th, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked first with 558.57%, Uniswap (UNI) ranked second with 499.21%, Cardano (ADA) ranked third with 466.13%, and Polkadot (DOT) ranked third with 259.64% With 142.34% in fourth place and LINK in fifth place.

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Neutral>

Analyzing the trading volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indicator 1 in Figure 13 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini). Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

Looking at Index 1 in Figure 13, it can be seen that the amount of bitcoin spot trading on major exchanges, which seemed to increase in earnest, declined again with the drop in bitcoin price. Of course, it should be noted that the trading volume on the day increased slightly from the previous day, but the increase was not noticeably large, and as shown in Index 2 of Figure 13-2, the total number of sales is greater than the total number of purchases. Also, since it is difficult to determine the direction of the price volatility index, a conservative response is required.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have fallen, and the Kimchi premium index trend is moving horizontally. There seems to be no need to worry much because the gap between them is still sufficient, and we do not believe that the situation will simply turn into a downtrend. If Bitcoin and Ethereum fall, we expect to get good results if we respond to the purchase of the lowest point for each stock.

③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators <strong>

Figure 16 shows the trend of Ethereum balances held by major exchanges. Since September 2020, the balance of Ethereum held by each exchange has reached the lowest level. This is due to the fact that there are more Ethereum withdrawn outside the exchange for long-term investment than those who want to sell on the exchange. Therefore, the market price of Ethereum is expected to surge sooner or later.

◇Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 18), the rising position that was 14.45% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts was 14. The city increased by 41.32%. In addition, in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock -11.62% (sell call option):-25.78% (sell put option) to 56.39% (buy call option):-30.84% ​​(sell put option), the composite position is’buy’. As a result of the change, intraday gains are expected, so once the bottom is confirmed, a split buy is expected.

In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 19), the rising position, which was 8.83% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts, was 14.92% at 14 o’clock. In terms of premium, from 10 o’clock -5.71% (sell call option): -1.70% (sell put option) to 1.01% (buy call option):-6.82% (sell put option), composite position’buy’ It is changed to, and it can be confirmed that it has changed in the upward direction three hours before the expiration.

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