◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>
While Bitcoin (BTC) cannot escape the weakness, Ethereum (ETH) is continuing its high pace every day. In fact, the rate of increase of Ethereum was +29.1% compared to the previous week and +62.2% compared to the previous month, far exceeding the performance of Bitcoin (+3.5% compared to the previous week and -2.1% compared to the previous month). In particular, when the Bitcoin crash last month, Ethereum stopped falling at the $2,000 level, and the fall was limited even when individual altcoins, which had risen just before the decline, crashed. Among experts, there is a feeling that the Ethereum price is overheating, but the inflow of funds is continuing due to the fact that there is no technical resistance on the chart due to the record high, and the purchase of whales has also been observed in the on-chain data.
According to data provider DeFipulse, the fixed value deposited on DeFi networks has increased by more than $20 billion. Considering that DeFi is mainly based on the Ethereum network, the increase in Ether price is interpreted as a very positive signal from the perspective of the Ethereum network as a whole.
Along with the surge in Ethereum price, altcoin price also rose, while Bitcoin dominance (share) fell to 46%. As of 14:00 on the 4th, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $56,054.54, the 24-hour trading volume is about $56.8 billion, and the market cap is about $1.42 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2,265 billion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 46.3%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 17.2%.
Last night, the US stock market ended lower despite a zero interest rate freeze and a policy to maintain an asset purchase program. It is evaluated that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve System (Fed), maintained a easing stance and was at the level expected by the market. On the 28th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average fell by 0.48% from the previous trading day, while the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq Index fell by 0.08% and 0.28%, respectively. .
The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased 1.92% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased 2.03% compared to the previous day, making altcoins relatively weaker than bitcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap decreased 1.81% compared to the previous day. Bitcoin’s market share increased 0.11% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that Bitcoin is falling less than the average decline rate of altcoins.
Meanwhile, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which started weak immediately after opening, is attempting a strong rebound after 13:00, and it is analyzed that a strong buying trend is flowing into small stocks. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -2.21%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -2.83%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is -2.04%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC, which is -3.39%, recorded -0.97% for WSC, an index centered on small stocks.
As of 14:00 on the 4th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours was 46%:54%, and the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was also analyzed to be strong. (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around -43.0, the basis of backwardation, and the basis of Ethereum futures was around +2.95. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. May futures traded at 56,135.0 dollars, down 915.0 dollars (-1.60%) from the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>
As of 14:00 on the 4th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 6,8871,000 won, down 1.61% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 348,900 won, down 1.66%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
The global cryptocurrency market, based on coin market cap at the same time, is showing mixed trend, and as of the last 24 hours, 5 of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization are falling. International Bitcoin (BTC) price is $56,054.54, down 3.30% from the same time the day before, and Ethereum (ETH) is $3,385.26, up 9.16%. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>
Bitcoin recovered to the $58,000 mark the previous day on the news that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will keep interest rates close to zero and continue to fund the economy, but returned to the downtrend again as it did not cross the $60,000 resistance line. Experts believe that this is because major altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and DOGE, continue to be strong, and the buying trend that flowed into bitcoin weakens, making it difficult to secure a rebound momentum. .
(Positive opinion)
① Fred Wilson, co-founder and managing partner of Union Square Ventures, diagnosed that “this Ether (ETH) rise is due to the increasing demand of the network.” “For example, buying a domain, using P2P (person-to-person) finance, buying art, and participating in games are typical. The more people who buy Ether, the greater the demand, the more Ethereum’s The value is bound to increase,” he added. “Of course, we can see the present as another speculative flow, but (personally) I think it is an uptrend based on demand.”
② Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis raised the target price for Ethereum to $10,000 right after Ethereum surpassed $3,000.
③ Jason Janowitz, co-founder of Blockworks, said that Ethereum’s market capitalization is higher than all banks in the world except for JPMorgan Chase.
④ Cryptocurrency Analysis CEO Ju-young Ju of the startup CryptoQuant analyzed that Ethereum’s strength was due to large-scale purchases by institutional investors.
⑤ Consulting firm De Beer Group CEO Nigel Green said, “Ethereum is already several years ahead of Bitcoin in all respects except for price and reputation,” he said. “I have a real feeling that 2021 is the year for Ethereum. The time for Ethereum has come.” “Ethereum is one of the cryptocurrencies that have benefited mainly from the bigger explosion of the cryptocurrency market,” said Green. “The growth of Ethereum in the recent months has led to a surge of interest from major institutional investors, and digital currency without borders is the money of the future.” It was accelerated by the spread of awareness.”
⑥Trading company Exo Alpha’s partner Ellie Le Rest said, “Due to the boom of the DeFi industry over the past two years, the fixed value deposited in DeFi has exceeded $70 billion.” “The Ethereum 2.0 upgrade will act as a catalyst for the purchase of Ether. Despite the high network fees, the market has begun to reflect the growth potential of upgrades in Ether prices.”
According to data provider DeFipulse, the fixed value deposited on DeFi networks has increased by more than $20 billion. Considering that DeFi is mainly based on the Ethereum network, the increase in Ether price is interpreted as a very positive signal from the perspective of the Ethereum network as a whole.
⑧George Clayden, executive director of investment firm Cryptonalisys Capital, said, “The US stock market once fell to 200% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the global bond yield was negative. However, with the release of Ether Futures, it has regained stability,” he explained. “Currently, Ether functions like a kind of institutional platform.”
(Negative opinion)
① Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhier said, “If Bitcoin can maintain the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, around $55,915) and a price above $58,000, buyers will try to raise the price from $61,825.84 to $64,849.27.” “But if the price of the BTC/USDT pair falls below the EMA on the 20th, it can be adjusted by the sellers to $52,323.21 and even $50,460.”
② Fairlead Strategy analyst Katy Stockton said, “Ether broke the April target of $3,000 faster than expected. It is not wise to go against momentum. There is a bit of a deterrent, but for the time being, it is likely to remain strong.” He said, “Bitcoin has recovered some of its losses in the middle of last month, which plunged to 27% due to the loss of medium-term momentum.” Stockton said, “The price per BTC won’t go up as much in the short term as in April.” “The conditions for short-term overbought fell below the 62,000-65,000 dollar resistance line. This can act as an obstacle to the price increase, and it is likely to be weak in the short term.”
◆Comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin market price <weakness>
The daily price of Bitcoin, which formed the highest price recently and plunged the day before (see Figure 5-1), has maintained a downward trend since its opening on the same day, technically entering the cloud band of the daily balance table, passing the moving average of the 20th to the moving average of the 10th. It has fallen and is not rebounding at the lowest price on the day. In order to turn upward (No. 2), it is essential to recover the market price near the market price as the low-priced buying trend flows within the same day. Otherwise, the market price is expected to move toward the lower end of the cloud belt (No. 1). On the downside, the support price is set at the $54,600 level.
As noted in last Thursday’s report, the recent bitcoin price movement is closely related to the U.S. CME bitcoin futures price (see Figure 5-2), where the U.S. CME bitcoin futures price has formed in the $60,000 range as expected. A strong uptrend is underway to fill the decline gap, and it is expected that it has not yet been completed, so even if the bitcoin price declines, it is expected to try to increase again to close it. Therefore, rather than fearing a sudden drop in prices, it seems that this should be used as an opportunity to buy at a low price. And, if it’s not a stock that’s not related to the market at all, we recommend that you anticipate and respond to the upward trend until bitcoin rises to about $61,000.
Today, as it is the expiration date of the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange, intraday fluctuations according to the option position are expected.As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two stocks is around $58,000 and $3,160, respectively. Was predicted. The settlement is more advantageous to the upside than downside, but considering the option position after expiration, there is a possibility that it will turn weak after 5 pm, so it is necessary to check the market price fluctuations after 5 pm. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $57,528. As the current bitcoin price is below the market price of the day and $57,528, the opportunity to buy the same day is 1) when the low price recovers the previous day and 2) the market price of the day or $55,029 is recovered. However, if you break the market price or $57,528 on the day of recovery, or if you break the low price of the previous day, you will have to sell the amount you bought and wait and see. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>
As of 14 o’clock on the 4th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 5 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit were’Buy’, 2’Sell’, and 1’Neutral’ opinion came out and’Buy’ opinion came out, and the moving average indicator was 11’Buy’ and 1 It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.
If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 4,’Sell’ is 1, and’Neutral’ is 3, sending a’buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 7 and ‘ ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with 5 cases.
◆Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated “horror and greed index” maintained the “greedy” stage at 68, up 7 points from the previous day (61). A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on May 4) <Strengthening>
Bitcoin and oil futures have been rising since last Thursday, but the dollar and S&P indexes fell slightly and gold prices rose. As of 14:00 on the 4th, the US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year was 83.09%, up 7.46% from last Thursday. During the same period, oil futures and gold futures rose by 3.97% and 0.92%, respectively, while the dollar index and S&P index fell by 0.27% and 0.12%.
The day before, international oil prices rose in anticipation of a recovery in demand for crude oil ahead of the summer holiday season in the United States. On the 3rd (Eastern Time), the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) produced in June at the New York Commercial Exchange closed at $64.49 per barrel, up 91 cents (1.4%) from the battlefield. Crude oil market participants watched the spread of Corona 19 in India and the outlook for global crude oil demand. In addition, the number of new corona19 confirmed cases in India decreased slightly, but it was still high, and as a result, energy and material stocks in the New York stock market showed strong strength. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on May 4) <Strengthening>
Cryptocurrency prices continued to rise. Since last Thursday, the change in the yield of the 10th largest market cap has risen by about 1,800% as DOGE once again reached an all-time high, and Binance Coin, the third largest market cap, also surpassed $670 with an uptrend comparable to Ethereum. It reached an all-time high, and its market capitalization exceeded $100 billion. As of 14 o’clock on the 4th, DOGE ranked first with 7,319.01%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 1,628.89%, and 3rd with Uniswap with 767.32%, Cardano ADA) ranked 4th with 649.16% and Ripple (XRP) 5th with 520.78%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Neutral>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
If you look at indicators 1 and 2 (BTC, ETH spot trading volume) in Figure 10, it can be seen that the price trend of the two stocks will continue to be sustained as they are maintaining a continuous upward trend. As the price volatility indicators of the two stocks, which were higher than the number of purchases, were lowering, the market is expected to maintain a weak intraday trend for both stocks. However, as the trading volume of the two stocks increased compared to the previous day, the low-end purchases are expected to flow in from late in the afternoon.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>
Although the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum fell, the gap between the two stocks’ kimchi premium index remained stable. Of course, the kimchi premium index is still above ‘0’, but we believe that there are enough conditions to maintain the rising trend of cryptocurrencies including bitcoin.
③ Analysis of the balance of bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <weakness>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. The exchange balance increased and decreased last weekend, but the bitcoin price has reached a short-term high and is increasing again as it turns downward, so a short-term bearish trend of the bitcoin market is expected. Therefore, it is necessary to observe whether the currently increasing exchange balance is a trend increase.
◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from all bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 63.94% at 10 o’clock, down from 63.94%. The proportion of positions decreased slightly to 51.83% at 14:00, and in terms of premium, from 10:00 (call option) -52.05%: (put option) -22.11% to (call option) -44.38%: (put option) -15.63% As the number of low put options decreased and the selling of call options increased, overall option market participants expected the market to decline on the same day.
<Strengthening> On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange in the same way (see Figure 13-2), 7.66% based on the number of contracts at 10 o’clock. The proportion of the downside position decreased to 1.38% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option) 14.09%: (put option) -3.99% to (call option) 10.20%: (put option) -4.65%. As option buying and selling increased and put option buying and selling decreased, the market was expected to try to increase until the maturity settlement (17:00).
◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 4th)
◇Deribit bitcoin option status (as of 14:00 on the 4th)
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