With plans to invest 100 billion U.S. dollars next year, Facebook is desperately transforming the meta-universe.
Original title: “Facebook Don’t “Face” Anymore”
Written by: Chen Chen Source: Wall Street
In 2010, David Fincher’s “Social Network” directly proclaimed the glory of Facebook at that time to some extent.
This social networking site, founded by the genius Mark Zuckerberg in 2004, has gathered more than 400 million users in just 6 years, creating the youngest billionaire and becoming a miracle in the Internet world.
In 2012, Facebook created the largest IPO in the history of Silicon Valley, and Zuckerberg himself was given the reputation of “Gates Second” by public opinion.
Today, Facebook is 17 years and 8 months old, standing at the threshold of adulthood, sitting on 2.91 billion monthly active users, and has become the world’s largest social network platform deservedly.
But this year, it has repeatedly been entangled in negative aspects and is deeply mired in the quagmire. This once industry benchmark seems to have reached the ceiling of growth.
On the one hand, it encountered ethical and regulatory dilemmas. Facebook was reported by former employees due to privacy violations and the adverse effects of its Instagram on young people, and was verbally criticized by the media and netizens. Zuckerberg himself was also sued by the regulatory authorities;
On the other side is the data and income of young users whose growth is stalling.
In this situation, Zuckerberg has found the new outlet of “meta universe” and has already bet on all his wealth.
October 28th, US Western time became an important day for Zuckerberg and all his followers. At 10 o’clock in the morning, he will appear at Facebook’s Silicon Valley headquarters to hold the annual Connect conference.
This is the annual developer conference of Facebook’s Oculus platform, but this year is different. Because the media news has spread before: “Facebook is going to be renamed” and “Zuckerberg wants to be all in the metaverse.”
Without disappointing the people who eat melons, Zuckerberg explained in this meeting Facebook’s understanding of the metaverse, the strategic planning of the metaverse, and the current progress made in the field of metaverse in a detailed and complete manner.
A new name Meta and a new LOGO similar to the “infinity” symbol were born, which also symbolized the opening of a new era of meta-universe belonging to Zuckerberg.
I believe that Metaverse will be the next important chapter of the Internet.
The change was so radical that Zuckerberg announced that he would invest 100 billion US dollars in the meta universe in 2022, and even the iconic name of Facebook, the miracle, would be abandoned.
The company’s stock code will also be changed from “FB” to “MVRS” from December 1st. In order to show its determination to transform, Facebook has also replaced the famous “Like” sign established at the headquarters of the company with the new Meta Universe logo.
Is it the “second curve” or “life-saving straw.” Can this bet create another Facebook-style miracle?
“Meta Universe Dream” has been planned for a long time
Facebook’s transformation to Metaverse is already an open secret.
At the end of June this year, Zuckerberg said in an interview that he hopes to build Facebook into a meta-universe company in the next five years.
Then in August, Facebook launched a public test of Horizon Workrooms, an application that allows people wearing Oculus Quest 2 virtual reality headsets to enter virtual offices and participate in meetings as a virtual identity. This application can be described as one of the preliminary forms of the meta universe.
Last month, after being exposed by many media outlets that Facebook had “major problems in corporate culture and product ecosystems,” the company’s chief technology officer Mike Schroepfer announced that he would resign . He is replaced by Andrew Bosworth, the current head of the hardware department and who is leading Facebook to form the meta universe team. At that time, some analysts believed that with such a change of chief technology officer, hardware and virtual reality-related business priorities are becoming a major focus of Facebook’s future planning.
On October 18th, Facebook stated that it plans to hire 10,000 employees in the EU as part of its “Meta Universe” plan.
When we started to let Metaverse into our lives, the need for highly specialized engineers was one of Facebook’s most pressing issues.
We look forward to working with EU governments to find suitable talents and suitable markets to advance this work as part of the upcoming recruitment activities.
By October 20th, news about Facebook’s planned name change had been overwhelming. According to media sources, Facebook plans to further strengthen the layout of the meta universe by changing its name to reflect its focus on the construction of meta universe. After the name change, Facebook may become one of many products under the parent company, and the parent company is responsible for managing all products such as Instagram, WhatsApp, and Oculus.
In today’s speech, all previous speculations and news have been verified, Zuckerberg is indeed All in.
As for the origin of this new name, Zuckerberg said that it comes from the Greek, meaning “beyond.”
To me, it symbolizes that there is always more to be built, and there is always a next chapter in the story. Our story begins in a dormitory, beyond our imagination; it becomes a series of applications, people use these applications to connect with each other, find their own voice, and create businesses, communities and sports, and change the world.
In fact, this name has been around for a long time. Before Facebook officially changed the domain name today, logging in to “Meta.com” will automatically redirect to the “Meta.org” website, which belongs to Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla. The charity organization “Chen Zuckerberg Initiative” run by Chen. As early as 2017, the charity acquired the artificial intelligence technology development company “Meta”, which is mainly engaged in searching scientific papers. This shows that Zuckerberg has already planned for his “meta universe” company.
So, how does Zuckerberg’s “meta universe” plan to change the world?
Zuckerberg’s “meta universe” world
“Meta universe” first originated from a science fiction novel called “Avalanche”, which is well known in the science and technology circles, and sometimes people will use the analogy of “Oasis” in “Top Player”.
JPM’s research points out two core characteristics of the meta universe:
In Zuckerberg’s vision, the meta universe is such a place:
The meta universe will be a world that you can enter anytime, anywhere. You can have countless monitors, the size of these monitors can also be set at will, you can synchronize the settings you like, just like your home in real life, but you can take the home of the meta universe to any place.
This is Zuckerberg’s major bet for the company over the next ten years, and it is also a way to expand the boundaries of the world.
To completely describe Zuckerberg’s “meta universe” world, we can sort out clues from Zuckerberg’s presentation and explanation at today’s conference and the open letter he wrote.
1. Basic idea: define a sense of existence
If the era of Facebook’s construction is still a combination of website + text, then the next generation of computing platform will focus on experience.
For Zuckerberg, the most important point in the definition of the meta-universe is the sense of existence, that is, the true feeling of being with another person or in a different place.
Anything, including gatherings with friends and family, work, study, play, shopping, or creation, etc., is not suitable for the current experience done on the web or mobile, can be realized in the meta universe.
2. Basic hardware: Project Cambria and Project Nazare
The prosperity of the meta-universe world first needs an entrance. Players of “Western World” also need to go to the workbench to change their clothes and then take a small train to the strange and repetitive territory.
But for Zuckerberg, this entry does not need to be so complicated for the time being. But VR and AR devices are still indispensable.
At today’s conference, Zuckerberg first announced a new high-end virtual and augmented reality headset called Project Cambria. It is slim, but uses smarter sensors to enable the virtual clone to make eye contact with other players in the world of the meta universe, providing a more realistic virtual experience. The expected debut time of this device will be 2022.
In addition, the first AR smart glasses were also released at the same time, code-named Project Nazare. Its goal is to achieve scenes in science fiction movies-social software is directly suspended in front of your eyes, and you can even use it to invite your friends to join the game. However, compared to Project Cambria, Project Nazare is still far from the release standard.
3. Fields involved: social interaction, work (learning), games
In terms of software, this time Zuckerberg announced a new VR feature-Horizon Home, and at the same time updated the Messenger function on the original device Quest. In addition, Zuckerberg also announced that it will integrate more in Horizon Workrooms that can be used for multiple applications. 2D applications for task processing, including Slack, Dropbox, Mural, Pluto TV, etc.
(1) Social
Horizon Home expands the social boundary. Using this function, you can customize the meeting space between you and your friends to be what you like, and freely choose your own image-pinch a new you out.
Messenger can realize the call function in virtual reality. You can directly make Messenger calls to friends in Horizon and talk to them in the real world in the virtual world.
(2) Work (study)
Zuckerberg announced today that it will integrate more than 20 2D applications that can be used for multitasking in Horizon Workrooms, including Slack, Dropbox, Mural, Pluto TV, etc. Some of these Oculus applications will blur the boundaries between VR and 2D applications. For example, Horizon Workrooms will support Zoom calls in the near future.
Quest for Business work functions can provide enterprises with functions such as account management, IDP and SSO integration, and mobile device management; individuals also have office space in Horizon Home, and the integrated functions in Workrooms can also be used here.
In addition, in order to encourage the learning of developers and content creators, Zuckerberg set up a special fund of 150 million US dollars as support.
(3) Games
Although there are not many hardware updates for games, this is obviously the application scenario most understandable and accepted by ordinary consumers, and it is also recognized as one of the most profitable scenarios.
Previously, VR games such as Beat Saber and Population have achieved initial success on Quest. Last month, Facebook just launched “Resident Evil 4”, and today Zuckerberg announced that the famous big IP “Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas” will also be launched on Oculus Quest 2 in the form of VR for the first time.
In the future, games in the meta-universe world will be more embedded in personal daily life beyond the immersive game scene. For example, games with fitness functions, such as fencing and basketball with friends through AR.
For more new game experiences, Oculus will hold a special game show conference in 2022.
4. Cover the crowd: ordinary people, developers, commercial organizations
In Zuckerberg’s goal, Metaverse will cover a wider range of people than social networks, including ordinary people, developers and creators, and commercial organizations.
Including providing ordinary people with a richer experience of work, games, social interaction, learning, and entertainment; building development kits based on virtual reality or hybrid display for developers; providing creators with VR background vocational training and certification paths; for enterprises Provide more convenient management and operation tools.
5. Business model: diversification
Although in the open letter, Zuckerberg stated:
“We are not building services to make money; we make money to build better services.”
We plan to sell our equipment at cost or subsidized prices so that more people can use it.
We will continue to support side installation and streaming of personal computers, giving people choices instead of forcing them to use Quest Store to find apps or reach customers.
Our goal is to provide low-cost developer and creator services in as many cases as possible, so that we can maximize the overall creative economy.
But how to use Meta to make money is obviously an issue that investors are more concerned about.
In the application scenarios and low-cost business described by Zuckerberg, the prototype of some business models has also been on paper.
For example: selling hardware equipment, paid developer and creator services, advertising buried in social and work scenes, etc.; the purchase of games and props has obviously become a very mature business model.
At today’s conference, Facebook gave a case of store operation: an aromatherapy shop appeared in the meta universe world, as a virtual scene, but embedded products that need to be sold.
Long-term goals are even more ambitious. In the open letter, Zuckerberg stated:
Our goal is to reach 1 billion people and hundreds of billions of dollars in digital commerce.
Facebook in peril
It seems that behind such a desperate transformation is not just the attraction of the meta-universe concept itself, but also the various crises that Facebook has faced this year.
In early October, the websites and apps of Facebook and its two major social media Instagram and WhatsApp went down, which was the worst since 2008.
In addition, Facebook is also in a deep crisis of trust, and former employees have copied multiple internal company documents and memos. Subsequently, these materials were handed over to the “Wall Street Journal”, the incident continued to ferment, Zuckerberg himself was called to Congress for hearings.
In terms of various indicators, Facebook is facing the dilemma of losing young people and stalling performance growth.
1. Public opinion crisis and regulatory risk
According to previous articles on Wall Street , in October, former Facebook employees acted as “whistleblowers” in the Senate Consumer Protection Committee hearing, reprimanding the company’s interests in disregard of public safety, well-being, and youth mental health.
The media found that the company lacks content censors in markets outside the United States, a large number of misinformation against the new crown vaccine appeared in user comments, and its image-based social media Instagram has a negative impact on the mental health of teenagers, but the company has turned a blind eye.
Market observers believe that the heavy revelations of former employees, especially related to hot topics such as children’s and young people’s network environment safety and privacy protection, will speed up the joint efforts of lawmakers from both parties in the U.S. Congress to strictly supervise technology giants and strengthen law enforcement actions. pace.
On October 20, local time, the U.S. Attorney General of the District of Columbia, Racine, formally sued Facebook founder Zuckerberg, claiming that he needed to bear personal responsibility in the Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018.
On the same day, the British Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) on the other side of the Atlantic announced that because Facebook failed to provide the required updated information, the agency would impose a fine of nearly 7 million U.S. dollars on Facebook.
2. Losing young people
Earlier, a Wall Street article showed that a group of researchers within Facebook had compiled a report in March of this year. The report includes a series of charts and data, highlighting a worrying trend that is accelerating: Facebook is becoming increasingly unpopular among teenagers and young people.
Data shows that the time spent by American teenagers on Facebook this year has dropped by 16% year-on-year, and the time spent by American young people on social networks has also dropped by 5% year-on-year.
At the same time, the number of newly registered teenagers is declining, and the average age of young people joining Facebook is also older than in the past.
3. The eclipsed three quarterly reports
The bleak three-quarter report may be the final fatal blow.
In the early morning of October 26, Beijing time, Facebook released its third-quarter financial report. Although market expectations have been hit very low, but the performance is still lower than expected.
- Total revenue in the third quarter increased by 35% year-on-year to US$29 billion, which was lower than Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of US$29.5 billion; of which advertising revenue was US$28.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, which was lower than analysts’ expectations of US$28.99 billion.
- Operating profit under GAAP was 10.4 billion USD, which was lower than Wall Street’s 11.1 billion expected.
- GAAP earnings per share for the third quarter were US$3.22, slightly higher than market expectations of US$3.17.
- In terms of key user indicators, Facebook’s daily active users in the third quarter were 1.93 billion, flat or slightly higher than expected, an increase of 6% year-on-year, but the more closely watched monthly active users were 2.91 billion, which was lower than analysts’ expectations of 2.93 billion. Nearly 2.7 billion in the same period. Average revenue per user (ARPU) was US$10, which was also lower than market expectations of US$10.15.
The forecast for the fourth quarter is even more worrying. Wall Street articles pointed out that investors and analysts are also concerned about how the privacy changes of Apple’s operating system will hit Facebook’s digital advertising revenue. After all, last week’s financial report said that social media Snap, which was negatively affected, lost a quarter of its market value overnight . RBC Capital Markets analyst Brad Erickson warned that next year’s online advertising market is “something that is worth continuing to worry about.” At the same time, the slowdown in advertiser spending may cause Facebook’s revenue to fall by 22% in the second half of this year.
Is the meta universe a life-saving straw? 100 billion US dollars invested next year
The public image seems to have fallen from the altar. At this time, choosing to change the name and change the track to start again seems inevitable. Of course, Zuckerberg’s urgency can also be seen.
In the future financial report, the new Meta will also split its business into two parts: the core advertising business department and the financial data of the AR/VR R&D department Facebook Reality Labs (FRL).
On the one hand, this means paying attention to the new image; on the other hand, it also means that the future investment in the universe is huge, and Zuckerberg does not want the latter to affect the apparent profit of his traditional business.
But all this also means that Facebook, which was already close to 18 years of age, is now almost reset to zero and enters the entrepreneurial cycle again.
This year’s FRL alone may reduce Facebook’s operating profit by $10 billion. And it is expected that more funds will be invested every year in the next few years. Due to increased investment in personnel and infrastructure, Facebook’s total spending next year will increase by 27 billion U.S. dollars to reach 97 billion U.S. dollars.
Judging from the two actions of renaming and reintegration, some people say it is very similar to the original Google. In 2015, a co-founder of Google created Alphabet, a holding parent company, and listed Google and YouTube as separate subsidiaries, while many emerging businesses such as unmanned vehicles, robots, and smart homes were listed as other subsidiaries.
The main purpose of Google’s reorganization is also to not want unmanned vehicles, robots, life sciences, fiber optic networks and many other emerging businesses that require high investment and have no profit prospects for the time being.
But from the perspective of changing the track, it may be more similar to Tencent’s switch to WeChat.
When WeChat started from the ground up as an independent platform, it was the key node for the Internet to shift from the PC side to the mobile side. With this opportunity, Tencent achieved a certain degree of rebirth.
In the open letter, Zuckerberg also mentioned:
We have gone from the desktop to the mobile phone via the Internet, from text to photos to video, but this is not the end.
The next platform will be more immersive-an Internet experience where you are in it, not just watching it. We call it Meta Universe, and it will touch every product we develop.
Is it the key node now? And is Metaverse the crucial salvation outlet?
The market also seems to be tangled. On the 28th, the US stock market opened Facebook’s share price first rose before the market, then fell, and rose again close to the close, but then the transaction price fell again after the market, and finally closed up 0.21%.
end
The meta universe is becoming more and more real, and Zuckerberg’s determination is becoming more and more determined.
But on the way to the meta universe, how many mountains still have to be crossed, maybe no one can predict now.
Can the new virtual empire in the vision help Zuckerberg reshape the myth of “world number one”?
I hope everything in the future will be as Zuckerberg said:
We need to work together to bring the best version of this future to life from the beginning.
Source link: wallstreetcn.com
