Through multi-angle on-chain data, analyze the short-term changes and trends of the three major exchanges in this storm of suspension of withdrawals.
Author: Lou Yue
As 2020 is drawing to a close, mainstream cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, have experienced a long-term downturn this year, breaking through and rising, taking over the popularity of the DeFi sector and ushering in a long-lost bull market.
This round of rapid market switching between bulls and bears has not only brought about changes in market conditions, but with the rise of various decentralized projects and derivatives such as DeFi’s liquidity mining, lending, trading, insurance, etc., let us see the decentralized central government. Some breakthrough attempts to centralize power.
The offensive of external DEX coupled with the trust issues exposed by some centralized exchanges themselves also prompted the entire CEX industry to optimize and upgrade in the process of exploring and solving problems .
With the settlement of events such as the OKEx withdrawal storm, the confidence of the domestic crypto market has also been restored to a certain extent. So how did the CEX industry, led by the three major domestic exchanges, perform during this period, and what subtle changes have been shown by some on-chain data?
Summary of main points
- Note: Based on the source and time of data interception, part of the statistical period of the article is only short-term market changes and trends in the past two months
- From the perspective of platform currency trends , BNB led the three major platform currencies with an increase of over 30%
- From the perspective of asset flow , Binance as a whole shows a trend of maintaining a net inflow of funds. On November 15th, the net inflow of Bitcoin reached 12,700 Bitcoins, a record high since April 2018.
- The total inflow of Binance Exchange is between 38 and 35,000 bitcoins, the largest inflow since 3.12 on November 5 is above 35,000 bitcoins; the total inflow of Huobi coin is between 17 and 13,800 bitcoins Before the withdrawal of OKEx was suspended, it was basically between 1,000 and 7,000 Bitcoins. After the withdrawal was resumed on November 26, a net inflow of 21,000 Bitcoins was recorded
- In terms of spot trading volume , Binance is steadily occupying the first place in trading volume, setting a record high in single-day trading volume
- From the perspective of derivatives trading volume , the three major exchanges of Binance, Huobi, and OKEx all occupy the top share, but Binance is still relatively leading in terms of trading volume and holdings
- From the perspective of Bitcoin futures contract trading volume , the number of Bitcoin open positions in the entire market reached a historical high of 7.4 billion U.S. dollars, Binance set a record high with 1.2 billion U.S. dollars in transaction volume, and OKEx and Huobi each reached 1.3 billion. And $786 million, a new high since August, showing that Binance continues to grow while seizing market share in Bitcoin futures
- The daily trading volume of the top ten trading platforms in the Bitcoin futures market hit a record high of US$69 billion. Binance ranked first in daily trading volume at US$19 billion, Huobi at US$17 billion, OKEx at US$10 billion, and the three major exchanges Both hit a record high.
- According to the mining pool data , the number of blocks produced by OKEx in the last three months are 288, 150 and 3, showing a downward trend; Binance mining pools are 224, 229 and 431, showing a steady upward trend; Huobi mining pools are 449 , 426 and 447, the performance is relatively stable
- From the perspective of the layout of the exchange , Binance has focused on the development of multiple fields and different ecosystems in the past two months. Huobi has experienced personnel changes in the past two months, which seems to shift its focus to overseas markets and compliance progress.
Briefly describe the development of CEX industry in the past two months
Beginning in early September , Bitcoin broke through the US$10,000 mark and started a strong rebound in the market. It rose to around US$19,300, which is only one step away from the historical high of US$19,800 since the birth of Bitcoin. It has increased by 90% in the past two months. %.
On the other hand, coupled with the slow decline of interest in DeFi-related concept projects , some market funds have also returned from the liquid mining capital pool to mainstream cryptocurrencies . Bitcoin’s market value has returned to above 60%, and the secondary market is enthusiastic about transactions Has picked up .
The centralized exchanges, which carry the “coin speculation” scenario, have encountered a major disturbance while recovering.
On October 16, OKEx, one of the three most widely recognized exchanges in China, stated in an announcement that “some private key persons are cooperating with the investigation by the public security organs. They are currently in a state of loss of connection and the authorization cannot be completed, and the withdrawal of coins will be suspended. “
As one of the earliest exchanges involved in derivatives trading in China, OKEx’s own trading volume and user volume also belong to the scope of the top exchanges. The suspension of currency withdrawals has aroused widespread market attention.
The issue of trust in centralized exchanges was once again brought up the topic, and many exchanges quickly adopted plans to deal with such incidents. For example, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said on Twitter that a “fire drill” was successfully held to ensure the security of all Binance users’ assets. This exercise was also conducted regularly in the past, but it was not made public.
The second and third-tier exchanges were also hit by this. On October 21 , DragonEx (Dragon Net) issued an announcement stating that “After the sudden outbreak of the OKEX incident, a large number of users have a crisis of trust in centralized exchanges, which triggered a run, which quickly deteriorated. The level of provision for the platform. The platform will work hard to find a restructuring plan .”
On November 2, the leading exchange Huobi encountered speculation about security issues, but then Huobi officials dispelled the rumors that “Huobi executives were arrested” and stated that the platform is operating normally.
On November 26 , with OKEx’s announcement that it would open the withdrawal of coins , CEX’s industry turmoil gradually subsided , and market attention once again returned to the development of market fundamentals.
Platform currency price performance
Judging from the recent two-month trend of the three major exchange platforms, the market has generally shown rise, fall, rebound, and callback, which is consistent with the development of the entire crypto market.
In the short- term, OKEx announced the suspension of withdrawals and triggered a wave of diving. Among them, OKB once dropped as much as 18% on October 16, HT and BNB followed the decline, and mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum were also affected and fell back.
During the period when Bitcoin hit the historical high, the platform currency followed the rise. BNB once rushed to a new high of 34 US dollars during the year. Although the price has corrected later, it still recorded more than 30% increase in the past two months, leading the increase. Big platform currency .
During this period, OKEx announced that it will resume withdrawals, which also stimulated OKB to rebound to near the price before the withdrawal was suspended, and then the price fell. The overall trend of a slight decline was recorded in the past two months, and it was basically digested. The impact of the withdrawal event on the price.
Asset flow
As stated in the overview of the overall development of the industry at the beginning of the article, due to the large fluctuations in the market, the exchange will also handle a large amount of deposit and withdrawal business in its daily operations. For the three major exchanges in the past two months, there may be asset flows The most influential time points are October 16, November 2 and November 26. Therefore, we will use these two time points as clues to simply measure the assets of the three major exchanges in the past two months. Flow trend.
The overall trend
From the beginning of September to the present, under the overall upward trend of the market, investors often choose to put their encrypted assets in a centralized exchange for fast trading, and the overall fund flow fluctuations in the exchange will also be amplified.
According to data from the on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant , except for the period when OKEx suspended withdrawals, the trends of total capital inflows and outflows of the three major exchanges are basically the same, but the proportion of inflows and outflows between exchanges has appeared. Big change.
Total inflow
Blue: Binance total bitcoin inflow; Orange: Huobi total bitcoin inflow; Green: OKEx total bitcoin inflow)
The total inflow of Binance Exchange is between 38 and 35,000 bitcoins . On November 5, the largest inflow since 3.12 was set to above 35,000 bitcoins.
The total inflow of Huobi coins is between 1,700 and 13,800 bitcoins .
Binance and Huobi showed an upward trend on the day when OKEx announced the suspension and resumption of withdrawals.
OKEx was basically between 1,000 and 7,000 Bitcoins before the suspension of withdrawals. After resuming withdrawals on November 26, it recorded a total inflow of 21,000 Bitcoins .
Total outflow
Blue: Binance total Bitcoin outflow; Orange: Huobi total Bitcoin outflow; Green: OKEx Total Bitcoin outflow
The total outflow of Binance Exchange is between 45 and 26,000 bitcoins , and the outflow trend is relatively stable.
The total outflow of Huobi coin is between 20 and 30,600 bitcoins , of which the two peaks of the outflow occurred on October 16 (23,000 bitcoins) and November 2 (30,500 bitcoins)
OKEx was basically between 600 and 5600 Bitcoins before the suspension of withdrawals. After the withdrawal of the coins was resumed on November 26, a total outflow of 24,000 Bitcoins was recorded.
Net inflow
Blue: Binance Net Bitcoin Inflow; Yellow: Huobi Net Bitcoin Inflow; Purple: OKEx Bitcoin Net Inflow
Binance’s overall trend of maintaining a net inflow of funds on the exchanges as a whole, of which the net inflow of bitcoins reached 12,700 bitcoins on November 15, setting a new high since April 2018 .
On October 26 (16,800 bitcoins) and November 2 (26,400 bitcoins), the Huobi Exchange had two waves of net outflow peaks.
Market transaction volume
Spot trading volume
According CoinGecko data show that the amount of data to spot trading recently 24-hour time cycle perspective, for $ 7.171 billion coins Ann ranked first, fire coins for $ 3.598 billion ranked second, OKEx for $ 2.05 billion ranked third .
According to the TokenInsight exchange rating data , Binance, Huobi and OKEx all received A. Binance ranked first with 92.14 points, Huobi ranked fourth with 70.61 points, and OKEx ranked seventh with 48.66 points.
The TokenInsight spot exchange weighted liquidity score is calculated by analyzing the depth and slippage of the spot trading pair’s market data. The weighted liquidity score of any exchange is calculated from the liquidity scores of all trading pairs of the exchange based on the trading volume of the trading pair as the weight; the liquidity score of a single trading pair is based on the market data of the trading pair, relative to TokenInsight Calculated based on the market data of the same Base of all exchanges included.
To spot trading volume data for the time period of the last two months of view, money safe in the November 27 to $ 13.77 billion in trading volume, single-day trading volume hit a record high, fire coin 26 November trading volume reached 6.373 billion The U.S. dollar also hit a record high in single-day trading volume . OKEx’s trading volume on November 27 was 3.234 billion U.S. dollars, only rebounding to the level of early September.
Binance’s spot trading volume trend in the past two months
Huobi spot trading volume trend in the past two months
OKEx spot trading volume trend in the past two months
Bitcoin futures contract trading volume
According to CoinGecko data , although the three major exchanges of Binance, Huobi, and OKEx all occupy the top share, Binance is still in a relatively leading position in terms of trading volume and positions in the entire derivatives trading market, ranking first.
According Skew Data show Last 24 hours security Bitcoin currency futures trading volume reached 10.95 billion US dollars, ranking the first place, fire and OKEx currency to $ 8.8 billion and $ 5.65 billion ranked second and third.
With the deepening of the high price volatility of Bitcoin, Bitcoin futures market heat surge, turnover rose seven weeks, the entire derivatives exchange bitcoins total average daily trading volume contracts and open interest are continuously record high.
Based on the data on November 26, the daily trading volume of the top ten trading platforms in the Bitcoin futures market hit a record high of 69 billion US dollars . Among them, Binance ranked first in daily trading volume at 19 billion US dollars, Huobi at 17 billion US dollars, OKEx At 10 billion U.S. dollars, the three major exchanges all set record highs.
On November 24, the number of open Bitcoin contracts in the entire market reached a historical high of 7.4 billion U.S. dollars, Binance hit a record high with 1.2 billion U.S. dollars in transaction volume, OKEx and Huobi reached 1.3 billion and 786 million U.S. dollars respectively. The new high since August shows that Binance continues to grow while seizing market share in Bitcoin futures.
Pool data
According to data from BTC.com, based on the block production data in the last three months , Huobi Mining Pool’s share is 10.1%, Binance Mining Pool is 7.4%, and OKEx Mining Pool is 3.3%. Calculated based on block production data in the last 24 hours, Binance mining pool share almost equals Huobi mining pool.
Among them, the number of blocks produced by OKEx in the last three months were 288, 150 and 3, showing a downward trend ; Binance mining pools were 224, 229 and 431, showing a steady upward trend ; Huobi mining pools were 449, 426 and 447, showing performance Relatively stable .
Exchange layout
In the past two months , Binance has focused on the layout of multiple fields and different ecosystems . Taking Binance Smart Chain as an example, in September, it announced the establishment of a $100 million seed fund to support the DeFi ecosystem and create a synergy between CeFi and DeFi ecosystems. Participating in high-quality projects on the Binance Smart Chain, in addition to receiving huge financial support, Binance Ecology will provide all-round support and incentives .
As of November 20, Binance’s $100 million seed fund has supported 13 projects to help developers create blockchain projects based on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC). More than 40 DApps, infrastructure and tool projects have been running on BSC. Binance Smart Chain is looking for more innovative DApps, which can come from various fields such as asset synthesis, derivatives, predictive marketing, aggregators, etc. .
Huobi has experienced personnel changes in the last two months. The most significant event is the return of co-founder Du Jun . Du Jun said that he will fully participate in the daily work of Huobi.
In addition, Huobi seems to shift its focus to overseas markets and compliance progress . For example, the events in the last two months include, according to media reports , that Huobi may be considering competing with Binance to acquire shares in Bithumb Holdings. Investment bankers said, “By acquiring Bithumb, it is convenient to carry out virtual asset business in Korea after the implementation of the Korean Special Financial Law.” In terms of compliance, Huobi Labuan obtained the Labuan digital asset trading brokerage service license in Malaysia.
OKEx is in the midst of a coin withdrawal crisis, and there are no major market directions and layout events for the time being.
summary
From the data on the chain from multiple angles, it can be seen that in this turmoil of suspension of withdrawals, OKEx’s own assets and trading volume have indeed been affected in the short term, although it is currently in the process of restoring the confidence of the exchange market In the process, but still need some time to check the results. The issue of CEX trust caused by the turmoil made Huobi once in a “public opinion whirlpool.” In the past two months, all aspects of the exchange have been relatively slow. Binance leveraged its original market advantages to further expand its market share and win the trust of some markets.
After the turmoil has subsided, the market has returned to the previous trend. Centralized exchanges, as an important bridge between investors and the market, bear responsibilities related to transactions and security. After going through the escalation process of constantly showing and eliminating problems, the CEX track pattern may also trigger a new round of changes.
