(The picture comes from the Internet)
Bitcoin has successfully surpassed $35,000 and hit a record high. Just half a year ago, when we talked about Bitcoin’s current bull market being expected to reach $50,000 or $100,000, we felt that it was still a remote thing. A few months later, standing on the mountainside of 35,000 US dollars, it seemed that 50,000 US dollars was not such an exaggerated imagination, and even almost within reach.
For long-termists, just insist on holding the bottom position, firmly implement the fixed investment plan, and then quietly watch Bitcoin continue to make history. Simple and pure, unpretentious. As I have repeatedly said, it is necessary to establish a Bitcoin-based mindset and regard fixed investment of Bitcoin as the best means of anti-inflation savings. If you persist for a period of time, you will achieve a state of inner peace of mind. What we lose is only temporary consumption and enjoyment, but what we gain is peaceful and calm happiness.
If 20,000 dollars was only a one-man show for Bitcoin before, then between 20,000 and 35,000 dollars, various altcoins began to fluctuate, and at every turn they pulled 40-50% or even several times the increase, all the time temptation. Leek, who has no determination, handed over the Bitcoin in his hand. The pin-in callbacks of a few small plateaus often fall in our afternoon, while repairs and rises often occur in our evening or even early morning. Chinese players are quickly handing over their bitcoins, while European and American players are taking over. The chips are changing hands quickly and in large numbers. Wall Street institutions and some listed companies have begun to call for single bitcoin. They have almost built their positions and are calling for more takers to enter the market.
The long-termists calmly ride on the shoulders of Wall Street institutions, let them carry them, and climb the mountains of this bull market, which will be extremely relaxed and enjoyable. Then we can free up our energy and think ahead, how will this bull market end?
During the planet member exchange, I conceived a bold script. You can think of it as whimsical, but you may have to admit that this script is wonderful enough. The script looks like this:
As the old saying goes, success is also Xiao He, and failure is also Xiao He. This bull market started because of institutions and will end because of institutions. However, the way the institution collapsed must be different from the way retail investors collapsed during the past few bull-bear transitions. What’s the specific difference? The ability of retail investors to add leverage is limited. Most of them are cash entering the market. If you play in the market, you can’t control the start of derivatives, such as the most familiar contract. Contract leverage is market leverage. Leek can be killed by a slow bear like ’18, or it can be forced to deleverage like a 312 plunge in ’20. Institutions are obviously more professional and patient than retail investors. Institutions are strong in traditional financial markets and can easily obtain high-quality leverage. They don’t need to go to the currency market to use on-market leverage. For example, Microstrategy first hoards coins, the stock price rises, and issues corporate bonds while the stock price rises, and the money raised is then used to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. This is leverage. But its leverage is outside the currency market.
Leverages outside the market will blow up positions outside the market. Institutions and companies such as Huaqi, Morgan, and MS are now working hard to call for orders every day. When institutions are mobilized by the wealth effect and enter the market frantically in batches, and leveraged financing to enter the market, the market should be quietly reversed. Grayscale Trust stocks stocks, and many of its clients are hedge funds. Hedge funds live on arbitrage, and it is difficult to say what beliefs they have in Bitcoin. When the market reverses, they will decisively kill and break the door.
What level of disaster can destroy the institution’s off-market leverage? It may take an epic crash in the U.S. stock market. At the end of 2007 and early 2008, the amount of energy may be enough to penetrate the leverage that institutions have added to the U.S. stock market, forcing them to cut Bitcoin and sell coins to save the company. At this time, Bitcoin must take advantage of the trend to shrink and plummet. Looking around, it is all selling. There is no buying, and the door can not get out. It is buried on the spot. Many institutions can only watch their off-market leverage is liquidated. Institutions were bloodbathed, and wealth was wiped out. Where do you come from? Where do you go back.
Many people see Wall Street institutions and feel that this bull market seems impossible to bear again. However, if the institution is really so powerful, there will be no subprime mortgage crisis and financial crisis. Bitcoin must kill several institutions in this round of bull-bear conversion to express to the world whether Wall Street has tame Bitcoin or Bitcoin has conquered Wall Street.
Shakespeare wrote, those violent delights have violent ends (this brutal delight will have a brutal ending). Don’t look at calling Shan Huan today, you will definitely pull the list in the future. When Bitcoin pulls the list for institutions, we will see the calm and cruel side of Bitcoin. Lao Tzu said that the world is not benevolent, and everything is a dog. In the face of the general trend of history and the cycle of heaven, the wealth and emotions of individuals or institutions are not cared about by God and Bitcoin.
Heaven cannot be violated. The way of Bitcoin is decentralization, and the currency must be more and more dispersed in the hands of more people. The more decentralized the currency, the broader and stronger the consensus. Conversely, if the currency has a tendency to become more and more concentrated (for example, capital has this trend), then the limit is that all bitcoins are earned by one person, and only one person in the world owns bitcoin, then bitcoin If the public consensus is lost, death can be declared.
The seemingly powerful and unparalleled Wall Street institutions are just a few small dusts that have been run over in the great historical journey of Bitcoin.
At this time, the Fed saw that the situation was not good, but it could not let the scene of the 2008 financial crisis repeat itself. Therefore, unlimited quantitative easing was launched urgently to save the market by printing money. Some institutions, like Lehman Brothers back then, went bankrupt. Some institutions are too big to fail, so the US government takes over.
The US government that took over the institution naturally took over the Bitcoin in their hands. Bitcoin began to become the reserve currency of the U.S. government, achieving a status equivalent to gold. Seeing that the Americans are so rascal, other countries will take the initiative or be forced to join this game of grabbing Bitcoin chips sooner or later. Bitcoin has begun to become a “prisoner’s dilemma” between countries. Every country is afraid of lagging behind other countries, so all of them have worked hard to increase their Bitcoin reserves.
Since then, Bitcoin has once again embarked on a new round of bear and bull cycle, and the “prisoner’s dilemma” among countries competing to hoard coins has replaced this round of institutional players and has become the main engine and driving force of the new round of bull market. The Bitcoin sword refers to $500,000.
The above script is purely fictitious. If there are similarities, wait and see.
