On November 7, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (October 28-November 3). During the statistical period, BTC remained high and fluctuated. The actual price fluctuations throughout the week were limited, but it is worth noting Yes, after the end of the statistical period, BTC immediately went out of a considerable accelerated rise. Therefore, the current position weekly report reflects the position adjustment preparations of various accounts before this market “transition”. In other words, the current weekly report Shows which types of accounts “foresee” this wave of rising prices in advance.
The total number of positions (the total number of open positions) in the latest period of data dropped from 12665 to 11278. The upward trend of this value for four consecutive weeks was terminated, and the pace of market rise slowed down, which led to many types of accounts to start profit reduction or Risk control to lighten up, in addition, this relatively obvious lightening operation also shows that the overall market sentiment is not very optimistic, and the confidence in the further increase of the BTC price is slightly insufficient.
In terms of sub-data, the large-scale brokers’ long positions increased from 770 to 800, and the short positions continued to remain unchanged at 0. This is also the answer sheet for the broker’s account to hand over 0 short positions for four consecutive weeks, which was tied. In mid-2018, the CME platform BTC contract had the highest historical value since stable participants. If the short position continues to maintain a value of 0 at the end of the next statistical period, the historical record of this continuous unilateral long position will be rewritten.
It is worth mentioning that after large institutions undertook a certain degree of reduction in multiple orders last week, they increased their holdings in the latest statistical cycle instead of increasing their holdings. They did not carry out further positions in the same way as the “mainstream” lightening ideas in the market. The cuts thus demonstrate the firm’s bullish attitude of this type of account towards the market outlook, and from the results, large institutions once again made the correct prediction.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts fell sharply from 5,462 to 4,379, and the short positions simultaneously dropped from 9010 to 8007. Leveraged funds have become the main driving force behind the decline in the total platform position in the latest statistical cycle. The long positions increased in the last statistical cycle were all taken back, and at the same time, the single-week reduction of short positions also hit a new high since the week of August 18. Compared with the large-scale institution’s continuing to overweight the idea of longing, in the face of flat market performance, leveraged funds have carried out considerable position reductions in the latest statistical cycle, and the reduction of long positions and the ratio are significantly higher than that of short positions. Positions, judging from the results, such accounts have not been able to “foresee” the market increase in the second half of last week.
In terms of large holdings, long positions fell slightly from 2579 contracts to 2539 contracts, and short positions simultaneously dropped from 2578 contracts to 2030 contracts. After the large account completed the reversal of the net short to net long in the last statistical cycle, although the long and short two-way simultaneous reduction of holdings was carried out in the latest statistical cycle, the net position of the overall position was consolidated through a more substantial reduction in short orders. Many advantages. Therefore, although the large accounts have also reduced their positions in the latest statistical cycle, they have significantly reduced their short positions while keeping their long positions almost unchanged. This idea is undoubtedly correct in terms of results.
In terms of retail positions, long positions dropped from 3540 to 3405, and short positions dropped from 478 to 425. The adjustment range of retail accounts in the latest statistical cycle is very conservative. This type of account, as the most steadfast long-term supporter in the market, did not show a very clear unilateral due to the lack of consistent judgment during the relatively stagnant stage. Tendency, so I chose a relatively safe bilateral simultaneous small lightening operation.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
