◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
The cryptocurrency market is continuing its strength by rebounding sharply as low-priced purchases flowed right after the opening. As of 14:00 on the 13th, Bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency market cap based on the coin market cap, remains strong at 50,846.84 dollars, with a 24-hour trading volume of about 93.9 billion dollars and a market capitalization of about 9475 billion dollars. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2,284 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 41.6%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 19.9%. The top stocks in market capitalization showing strong momentum at this time are Polkadot (DOT, 17%), Dogecoin (DOGE, 13.31%), Yeon Finance (YFI, 8.62%), Uniswap (UNI, 7.54%), Ripple (XRP, 7.45%) and Cardano (ADA, 6.64%).
Although the market rebounded in this way, fears that the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) may turn to an early tightening due to inflation concerns are pressing the stock market as well as the bitcoin market, and the chart’s main technical support line has also deviated. Subsequently, it is a burdensome situation to see only positively.
Last night, the US stock market plunged as inflation fears amplified due to the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April, which came before the opening, and a sale bomb poured out of major technology stocks. On the 12th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 indexes fell 1.99% and 2.14%, respectively, from the previous trading day, and the technology stock-oriented NASDAQ index also 2.67%. Fell.
The total cryptocurrency market cap increased by 4.26% from the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased by 5.27% compared to the previous day, making altcoins relatively stronger than bitcoin, and the market cap of bitcoin increased by 2.97% compared to the previous day. Bitcoin’s share decreased by 1.35% compared to the previous day, which was analyzed to have a higher average rate of increase in altcoins than Bitcoin.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that had plunged the previous day started strong and has continued to rise sharply, and it is analyzed that the strength of mid-sized stocks is particularly noticeable amid the influx of investment funds. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +8.41%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +9.35%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is +8.02%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC recorded +10.40%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +9.09%.
As of 14 o’clock on the 13th, the cumulative buy:sell transaction volume ratio of the last 24 hours was 49%:51%, indicating that there was a high selling tax.As of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was also analyzed to be strong. . (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis for Bitcoin futures was around -7.5, and the basis for Ethereum futures was around +4.10. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. May futures traded at $57,612.5, an increase of $622.5 (+1.09%) compared to the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>
As of 14:00 on the 13th, the cryptocurrency market price is rising. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 6,3899,000 won, up 2.64% compared to the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 4983,000 won, up 4.97%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market is declining based on coin market cap, and all the top 10 stocks in market cap are falling as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell 12.20% from the same time the day before to $50,846.84, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 8.52% to $3,960.38. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.
◇ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>
Bitcoin is trapped in a consolidation section of $50,000 to $60,000, and the decline in the cryptocurrency market was markedly weakened by the decline in the US stock market, but in the current situation, cryptocurrency trading is an investment that can generate relatively fast returns. A number of market experts agree that it is a means. In addition, as the current cryptocurrency market is concentrated in the area of DeFi, which is rapidly expanding along with Ethereum, there is an opinion that the center of the market is shifting from Bitcoin to DeFi, Ethereum, and the rapidly growing altcoin market.
(Positive opinion)
① Sean Rooney Digital, head of Valkyrie Investments, said, “Bitcoin prices have been stagnating for quite a long time.” At that time, several types of tokens surpassed Bitcoin throughout the summer, but as the fourth quarter entered, Bitcoin turned to a strong uptrend again.”
② Stanley Drukenmiller, who is called the legend of US hedge funds, said in a recent interview, “Bitcoin (BTC) is a good risk aversion against currency inflation pressures.” “The radical monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) can destabilize the dollar,” he said. “BTC has already created a brand value with a history of 14 years.” “Bitcoin will be difficult to store value because of its limited supply,” he added. “It is possible if the dollar loses its reserve currency status due to the Fed’s monetary policy today.”
③ Chinese large-scale mining pool BTC.TOP founder Zhang Zuo-erl said through his SNS, “History always repeats itself to the extent that it is creepy. This surge of’animal’ coins has created a bubble in the market.” And analyzed. “But the difference from 2017 is that this altcoin bull market led by DOGE was artificially created by an influential person named Elon Musk.” He added, “I think that it has come about 30-40% in completing one cycle in the bullish cycle. If the price of cryptocurrency rises to 100% in the future, the current small fluctuations will be seen as a straight line when viewed broadly.” Added.
④CryptoQuant CEO Joo Ju-young said on Twitter, “Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum holdings in both derivatives and spot exchanges have decreased and the cell (sell) side liquidity crunch has intensified. Due to the Ethereum ecosystem and usability, the Centralized Exchange (CEX) Ethereum is churning out,” he said.
(Neutral opinion)
① Chinese cryptocurrency analyst Hwang Han said on the 13th that the BTC plunge was the result of a combination of factors, such as the US inflation rate hitting the highest level in 13 years and increasing concerns about an interest rate hike. In this regard, he said, “The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year, the highest increase in 13 years since September 2008. Accordingly, global inflation concerns are growing, and the US Fed is more than expected,” he said. Prospects were raised that interest rates could be raised early, and Tesla founder Elon Musk’s remarks on the suspension of support for BTC payments seem to have contributed to the plunge in BTC, but the current cryptocurrency market’s’madness’ has not completely subsided due to the bullish cycle. It is not believed that there is a high possibility that the sideways will continue within the relatively large range for the next two days.”
(Negative opinion)
① Katy Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, said, “The rollover of the Bitcoin Weekly Chart MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence Index) reflects the loss of medium-term momentum, and this results in the bitcoin price. The risk of decline is increasing,” he diagnosed. “Bitcoin could undergo a major correction up to $42,000 from a technical point of view,” he predicted.
② Tesla CEO Elon Musk said, “Tesla is temporarily suspending support for bitcoin payments. We are concerned about environmental pollution caused by the surge in fossil fuels used for bitcoin mining.” “Tesla will not sell bitcoin, and once bitcoin mining begins to be mined with sustainable energy, we will use it for payment again. Also, we are looking for cryptocurrencies that use 1% of bitcoin energy.” Said.
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Neutral>
The daily bitcoin market price (see Figure 5-1) has risen strongly above the 120-day line as a result of the plunge in the previous day and maintains its momentum. However, the current price is the price reached about 30 minutes after opening, and has changed little since. Technically, if this price point, which is also the second point of the Fibonacci retracement, is not exceeded, the market price and the low price will fall in the direction of the day, so the direction from the current position is expected to determine the direction of the short-term market.
According to the research institute’s analysis of the on-chain transaction volume on the same day (see Figure 10), the sale volume is significant compared to the sell volume section when the previous decline occurs.Therefore, there is a possibility that the market price will rebound in the short term as the buying trend flows in the future. However, as you can see in the BTC chart on the left in Figure 10, the BTC market is technically falling after forming a’head and shoulder’ pattern. The rebound is strong, so it may immediately recover to the 120-day moving average and soar above the 5-day moving average.However, referring to the fact that this pattern often falls in the direction of the blue arrow, it is conservative until the bitcoin price enters the rebound zone. Phosphorus response is desired.
Today is the expiration date for the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two stocks is estimated at $54,000 and $4,200, respectively. While most of the stocks in the market are expanding their strength further, Bitcoin and Ethereum are also trying to increase their peak while maintaining an uptrend, but they have not yet crossed the $51,000 line of Bitcoin and the $4,040 line of Ethereum.
Comparing the option positions at 10 am and 14 am, it was confirmed that the positions of the subjects that were strong in the morning have changed somewhat conservatively, and the possibility of using a strategy aiming at reducing the premium by going up and down a certain range from the current price to the expiration time. I judge this to be high. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has a significant price change for the day of $52,077. As the current bitcoin market price is between the market price of the day and $52,077, the opportunity to buy the same day is 1) if it rebounds after supporting the 120-day moving average and 2) breaks through $52,077. However, if you deviate from the 120-day moving average, which we supported, or break the market price of $52,077, which was supported, or the market price on the same day, you will have to sell and watch. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Weakness>
As of 14 o’clock on the 13th, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’Sell’ and’Strong Sell’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, two of the oscillator indicators in Upbit were’Buy’, 5’Sell’, and 1’Neutral’ opinion and’Sell’ opinion, and the moving average indicator is 4’Buy’ and 8 It was summarized as a’sell’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.
Looking at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 0,’Sell’ is 6, and’Neutral’ is 1, sending a’active sell’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 2, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’active selling’ with 10 cases.
◆Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Weakness>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated “horror and greed index” showed a “fear” step down two steps to 31, down 37 points from the previous day (68). A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of 14:00 on May 13th) <Weakness>
Since last Tuesday, as concerns over inflation in the US economy have grown, the US 10-year Treasury bond rate on the previous day closed at 1.693% on the 12th (local time), soaring to the maximum in about two months. The major reason is the sharp rise in consumer prices in April in the US. As a result, the dollar index rose and risky assets fell. However, oil futures prices continued to rise. As of 14 o’clock on the 13th, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return from the beginning of the year is down 3.99% to 72.57%. Gold futures and S&P 500 indexes also fell 0.76% and 3.39%, respectively, while oil futures rose 1.76%.
The day before, international oil prices rose to the highest level in two months. On the 12th (local time) at the New York Commercial Exchange in the U.S. for June delivery, Western Texas crude oil (WTI) for June delivery closed at $66.08 per barrel, up 1.2% from the previous trading day. It recorded the highest level in the past. The news that stocks are shrinking ahead of the summer vacation season is interpreted as raising oil prices. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on May 13th) <weak>
The previous day, the price of bitcoin fell sharply, and the price of most coins also fell sharply. However, shortly after opening on the same day, as the low-priced buying trend inflows, the market rebounded sharply, showing a substantial recovery. In recent years, due to the strong Ethereum price, DeFi stocks such as YFI and AAVE are recording record highs every day. As of 14 o’clock on the 13th, DOGE ranked first with 7,595.77%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 1,529.84%, 3rd with Cardano (ADA) with 842.14%, and Ripple (XRP) compared to the beginning of the year at 14:00 on the 13th. ) Ranked 4th with 465.47% and Ethereum (ETH) 5th with 447.90%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <weak>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
If you look at index 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10, you can see that the sell transaction volume continued to increase and the market price finally plummeted. There is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. It can be seen that the 2nd indicator (ETH spot trading volume) maintained a steep upward trend, but the previous day’s selling volume increased sharply (indicator 4). However, if you look at the direction of price volatility in indicators 3 and 4, it is rebounding from the low, so it is highly likely that the same day will end with an uptrend.
On the other hand, as can be seen in the BTC chart on the left in Figure 10, the BTC market has technically formed a’head-and-shoulder’ pattern and is falling. Since the rebound is strong, it may immediately recover to the 120-day moving average and soar above the 5-day moving average, but it should be noted that in general, this pattern often falls in the direction of the blue arrow.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>
Both the Bitcoin price and the Ethereum price declined, but the kimchi premium index of the two stocks showed opposites. The Bitcoin side rose and the Ethereum side showed a relatively stable movement. This is interpreted to be due to the relatively strong decline in the bitcoin price. However, both stocks did not show a crossover phenomenon, so it seems that it is necessary to pay attention while observing the trend periodically.
③ Analysis of the balance of bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <weakness>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. The exchange’s bitcoin balance, measured in blocks, continued to increase, but eventually plummeted. It is necessary to observe the trend as it is possible to determine whether the balance will increase or decrease depending on whether the balance will increase or decrease.
◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Neutral>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from all bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts decreased from 1.61% at 10 o’clock. The position proportion was almost unchanged at 1.89% at 14:00, and on a premium basis at 10 o’clock (call option)-0.46%: (put option) 44.34% to (call option)-4.19%: (put option) 30.64%. Option premium sales increased, but put option premiums declined, so option market participants cannot say that they are strong yet, but it is analyzed that the market is expected to rise gradually on the same day.
<Neutral> In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the number of contracts was 25.87% at 10 o’clock. The share of the position changed to a bearish position at 12.06% at 14 o’clock, and at 10 o’clock (call option)-2.37%: (put option)5.97% to (call option)-3.37%: (put option)5.25% on a premium basis. Did not show any significant change. Therefore, the bitcoin price, which has risen significantly from the low, is expected to move sideways or slightly decline within a certain range until the time of payment due (17:00).
◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 13th)
◇Deribit bitcoin options (as of 14:00 on the 13th)
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