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◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
As the cryptocurrency market turned strong, Bitcoin’s market capitalization returned to $1 trillion. Major stocks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are leading the overall market uptrend, maintaining the strength following the surge the previous day. Bitcoin continues to rise after recovering $58,000, while Ethereum surpassed $1,800.
Last night, the US New York Stock Market closed mixed tax due to the aftermath of a margin call (requiring additional margin) from hedge fund Arkegos Capital, and the Dow index closed at an all-time high based on the closing price. Akegos Capital Management, a private investor of Bill Hwang, a fund manager from Tiger Management, started a $30 billion block deal on the 26th as a margin call from a stock price decline.The block deal was made after the regular market closes, but related banks have potential losses. At the beginning of the opening, banking stocks faced downward pressure, warning of the possibility. On the 29th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average rose 0.30% from the previous trading day, and the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index fell by 0.09% and 0.60%, respectively. Closed.
As of 14 o’clock on the 30th, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $57,874.53, the 24-hour trading volume is about $58.9 billion, and the market cap is about $1,804 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.83 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 59.1%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 11.4%.
The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 0.13% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased by 0.02% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than Altcoin, and the market cap of Bitcoin increased 0.20% compared to the previous day. Its share increased by 0.07% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that the rate of increase in bitcoin is greater than the average rate of increase in altcoins.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started weakly has continued to fall, forming a low at around 13:00, and rebounding sharply, succeeding in an uptrend after 15:00, and small stocks are recording a sharp rise. It was analyzed to be. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +0.61%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.20%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is +0.65%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC recorded +0.24%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +4.60%.
As of 14:00 on the 30th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume for the past 24 hours was 48%:52%, which showed a high selling ratio, but as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to have a strong buying trend. (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures is around +33.5 and the basis of Ethereum futures is around +2.65. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. April futures traded at $57,915.0, an increase of $150.0 (+0.26%) compared to the previous day.
57,915.0 +150.0 +0.26%
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>
As of 14:00 on the 30th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price rose 0.58% from the previous day to 6,9143,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) rose 0.28% to 2.171,000 won, and Polkadot (DOT) fell 0.68% to 40,660 won. Recorded. Ada (ADA) rose 0.70% from the previous day to 1,445 won, Ripple (XRP) rose 2.08% to 689 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 0.10% to 611,200 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) rose 0.21% to 484 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 33,610 won, up 0.63% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 228,000 won, down 0.50%.
At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise among the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $57,874.53, up 4.79% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 7.18% to $1,816.82, while Binance Coin (BNB) rose 2.32% to $275.18. Cardano (ADA) rose 1.53% from the previous day to $1.21, Polkadot (DOT) rose 4.60% to $34.00, Ripple (XRP) rose 3.88% to $0.578, Uniswap (UNI) rose 1.70% to $28.61, Theta (THETA) fell 5.06% to 13.04 dollars, and Litecoin (LTC) fell 0.40% to 191.56 dollars.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <Strengthening>
The industry believes that Bitcoin’s rapid recovery to the $58,000 level, despite the stock market downturn in recent weeks, demonstrates the strong confidence of investors in Bitcoin. In addition, many market experts predict the next level of resistance at the $60,000 level, and are optimistic about the breakthrough of the resistance band. However, there are always unexpected market changes, so it would be wise to have a perspective that doesn’t look only one way.
① Cryptocurrency Media CoinDesk said, “In the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet been overbought, which shows that buyers are likely to maintain active movement above the $54,000 support line.” However, as the broader uptrend, which started in January, is slowing, traders need to continue to observe intraday resistance.”
② Glassnode analyst William Clement explained why the movement of so-called’whales’ who search for assets on exchanges for the purpose of holding bitcoin is not properly reflected in the price of bitcoin. He said the demand for bitcoin must first increase before the long-term holder’s effect can be reflected in the market. Clement predicts that the U.S. government’s supply of more currency through stimulus measures in relation to the new demand will help institutional investors increase their demand for cryptocurrency.
③ Cryptocurrency analyst PlanB, based on the stock-to-flow model, one of the leading indices that have been tracking Bitcoin (BTC) prices fairly accurately for many years, “Bitcoin bull market is now It’s just started,” he insisted.
Dan Morehead, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund Pantera Capital, said, “According to the stock-to-flow model, Bitcoin will rise to $115,000 this summer. Predicted as “.
⑤ Cryptocurrency analyst Tone Vays said, “Bitcoin is consolidating (flooding), but it is still bullish,” and “before June, it will rise to more than $70,000.”
⑥ Mike McGlone, a senior product strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence under Bloomberg, recently tweeted, “Bitcoin is transitioning to an investor’s’Risk-Off’ option.” The value of Bitcoin is expected to be around $400,000.”
⑦ Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhyay said, “On the 20th, the exponential moving average line (EMA, $55,090) began to rise, and the relative strength index (RSI) exceeded 59, and the buying forces took the lead. “If the buying trend continues to rise and exceeds the all-time high of $61,825.84, the rally is likely to continue to $69,279 and $79,566. However, the BTC/USD pair price fails to maintain the EMA on the 20th and 50%. If it falls below the daily simple moving average line (SMA·52,376 dollar line), it will be the first sign that the selling force is revived.”
⑧ Cointelegraph, a media specialized in cryptocurrency, said that Norway’s billionaire investor Scheystein Stray Spetalen, who criticized “Bitcoin is a ridiculous currency,” recently bought bitcoin into his personal account, followed by MiraiX, Norway’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. MiraiX) bought a stake,” he said. “The influx of new investors increased the demand for bitcoin, while the Hodlers holding tight stakes cut supply. This is likely to resume the uptrend.”
① Forbes Cryptocurrency Research Director and Analyst Steven Ehrlich diagnosed that “Bitcoin price could fall for weeks due to the rise of long-term interest rates in the United States.” In this regard, he said, “Rising interest rates make safer investment strategies more attractive, and since Bitcoin is not a safe investment, the price of bitcoin may continue to decline over the next few weeks. In addition, some institutional investors who have entered the market over the past few months have seen some institutional investors who have entered the marketplace. Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may have been exhausted because it is currently making enough profits Bitcoin is being promoted as a safe asset, but is in fact an asset similar to a growth stock, as long as the Fed’s interest rate hike is projected, this will be a short-term bitcoin bad news. I can,” he explained.
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>
With the influx of strong buying, the daily bitcoin market price (see Figure 5-1) is on the verge of surpassing $60,000. With the inflow of low-priced buying, it will once again challenge the $60,000 breakthrough, which failed to break through twice since mid-February.
Technically, it is an upward trend that raises the highs and lows, and a strong upward trend is expected as it has crossed the upper trend line of the triangular convergence pattern, and an increase in trading volume is essential for this to continue. In addition, if the price of Bitcoin exceeds the $61,800 mark, which is the previous high, it is expected that the bitcoin market price will once again enter the unprecedented area.
One concern is that bitcoin dominance has fallen below 60% as altcoins’ yields have recently risen. It should be remembered that this means that if not right now, the moment the altcoin price runs out, there will be a big price adjustment. Another reason for this is the bitcoin option skew index (see Figure 5-2).If this value is above ‘0’, it means that option market investors see the market positively after the period, and it is below ‘0’. It means thinking negatively. According to the data calculated by our research institute, 7 days, which is the very short term, was more than ‘0’, but even now, more than 2 weeks are all negatives. Of course, now is the time to increase each person’s return to the highest level by buying.
Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was predicted to be around US$57,000 and US$1,720, respectively, as of 14:00. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 14)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $56,947. As the current bitcoin price supports this price and is rising beyond the market price of the day, the possible time to buy bitcoin on the day is 1) after confirming the high price of the previous day and the breakthrough of $58,353. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>
As of 14 o’clock on the 30th, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’active buying’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 8 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 0’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions, and’Strong Buy’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 12’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’neutral’ opinion with zero’sell’.
If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 8,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 1, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with 0 cases.
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ recorded 72, the same as the previous day (72), maintaining the current level of greed. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on March 30) <Strengthening>
As bitcoin prices have risen sharply for several days, as of 14:00 on the 30th, the US CME bitcoin futures yield rose 11.30% from the beginning of the year to 84.50% from last Thursday. During the same period, the dollar index, the S&P 500 index, and oil futures rose, except for a -1.08% decline in gold prices.
International oil prices rose as concerns over a decline in demand grew as the situation of Corona 19 in Europe worsened despite the resumption of trade on the Suez Canal. On the previous day at the New York Commercial Exchange, the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) for May ended at $61.56 per barrel, up $0.59 (1%) from the battlefield. It is interpreted that oil prices rebounded as traders turned their attention to the OPEC+ meeting after the reopening of Suez Canal traffic, while OPEC+ is scheduled to determine oil production in May at the technology meeting scheduled on April 1st. Oil prices showed great volatility late last week in the news of disruptions in transportation through the Suez Canal. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of March 30, 14:00) <Strengthening>
As the cryptocurrency market turned to strong, the rate of increase of the top stocks of the market capitalization showed a recovery trend, but the rate of increase of altcoins, which had previously been limitedly rising, has risen as if competing, is a remarkable change in the market after adjustment. As of 14:00 on the 30th, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked 1st with 628.11%, 2nd with Theta Token (THETA) with 595.68%, 3rd with Cardano (ADA) with 558.72%, and Uniswap UNI) ranked 4th with 451.92% and Polkadot (DOT) 5th with 264.98%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Strengthening>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
Looking at indicators 1 and 2 in Figure 10, it can be seen that the trading volume of BTC and ETH on the day has decreased from the previous day. Of course, since the transaction time remains, it is expected to increase further.If you look at indicators 3 and 4, the price volatility indicator indicates an increase in Bitcoin and a decrease in Ethereum. The market price is expected to be somewhat weak. However, it does not mean that the trend is undermined.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>
As the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum rose, the crossing phenomenon with the kimchi premium index, which was concerned, did not persist and normalized. In addition, the two stocks’ trends are expected to continue to rise as long as the direction they are facing is opposite.
③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators <strong>
Figure 12-1 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by major exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. This is because more people withdraw outside the exchange for long-term investment than those who want to sell on the exchange. Although the market price has fallen, no remarkable increase in balance has yet been confirmed.
◇ Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 34.51% at 10 o’clock, which was 34.51% in the rising position. At 14 o’clock, the position was changed to a drop of 2.25%, and the market is expected to weaken slightly after expiration.
On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the same day issued by the DRBT exchange in the same way (see Figure 13-2), the decline position was 60% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts. It decreased to 23.37% at 14 o’clock, and at 10 o’clock -50.41% (sell call option): 0.03% (buy put option) to -4.04% (sell call option): 2.40% (buy put option) on a premium basis. It can be seen that it has changed and has entered the stage of organizing the position.
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