Data puzzle: the real circulation of Filecoin? How much is the test currency converted to real currency? How much wool was stalked?

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Contributing Writer: not nap Editor: Wu said block chain

After the mainnet went live, the Filecoin team launched an AMA event for the community on October 21. Among them, many questions were answered and answered, and the information of all parties was integrated, but today I want to expand and discuss two of the key issues:

1. At present, the test currency is circulated as “real currency”, what are the sources? For what purpose? (There have been many rumors before, saying that big miners received tens of millions of test coins converted into real coins to hit the market)

2. What are the detailed rules for FIP-0004? After the implementation, what is the daily increase in selling pressure (coin volume) in the market? (The core of FIP-0004 is to decompress the miners and release 25% immediately)

Official explanation of the outflow of test coins as test coins

The official explanation for converting test coins into real coins is that before the mainnet went live, on September 27, the official wrote in his blog that “the space race testnet will continue to operate and will be upgraded through the agreement in the next 3 weeks. And state transition gradually enters the main network.”

The official meaning is that through this information, everyone should be able to understand that the official will not fork the chain, so it will not distinguish between “test currency” and “real currency”. However, the official did not make it clear for the first time, and there have been changes, leading to external misunderstandings.

The official hopes that through this smooth transition method, all miners can enter the mainnet pre-mining ahead of time, and give all miners a period of free pledge to run computing power before the release of private and public placement quotas.

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After the mainnet went live, the huge computing power and sealed storage blades built during the testnet, including the proceeds and rewards obtained during the entire space race, belong to the miners. When the network is upgraded, these test coins will be converted to the main network FIL.

Miners are equivalent to receiving official airdrop rewards after this round of mainnet launch, and the airdrop is a zero-cost test coin received at the “faucet” during the space race, perhaps for the official purpose of “binding” and “cooperating” miners.

How many test coins are circulating in the market?

In the official AMA, the official pointed out that the currency of the wallet address of its own protocol laboratory and the foundation has not been transferred. Currently, there are three main sources of currency in circulation: unlocked mining rewards, unlocked SAFT tokens and pre- FIL left as a stable market and borrowing (almost all is not used).

After verification, 2.68% of the coins in the wallet of the Foundation and Protocol Lab have been unlocked, but have not been transferred out.

Therefore, a large part of the coins currently in circulation on the market comes from the test coins of the Space Race 1 and Space Race 2. These test coins are all officially distributed to miners. 55% will be issued first, and 15% will be reserved for future Retrieve miners.

All miners’ coins come from one address (whether it is the faucet test coin at the time or the real coin currently mined)-f02:

The creation time is exactly at 6 o’clock in the morning on August 25, when the first phase of the space race started. According to the official statement, 55% is distributed to mining miners, so the balance of this part should be 1.1 billion. As of October 22, 8 p.m., the account balance is 1092244887.64.

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数据解谜:Filecoin真实流通量?测试币转为真币多少? 被薅多少羊毛? So the formal mining + test coin outflow should be:

1100000000-1092244887.64=7755112.36 (7.75 million FIL), so theoretically, the test currency circulating in the market should not exceed 7 million. According to official accounts, most of these are used for pledges. The pledge data shows that it is 13.12 million because it includes unlocked rewards, and the amount of pledged coins is far less.

数据解谜:Filecoin真实流通量?测试币转为真币多少? 被薅多少羊毛? According to Filscan, there are currently 21.17 million coins in circulation, and 10 million of the 21.17 million coins are officially unused coins (that is, the FIL reserved as a stable market and lending above), so it corresponds to the data on the chain, and the circulation market The number is about 11.27 million.

数据解谜:Filecoin真实流通量?测试币转为真币多少? 被薅多少羊毛? 11.27 million li, minus 1.5 million of circulating funds used for “market making” (upper limit); minus 8 days of daily SAFT account release of 351,000 FIL per day, this part now totals about 3 million, minus the aforementioned f02 account A small amount of unsecured part, the remaining about 5 million or so may be so-called “personal candy.”

Personal candy is to receive 100FIL test coins for each github account. This part of the wool has stronger attributes. The official statement also banned hundreds of accounts, but from the current point of view, tens of thousands of accounts should be received and successfully exchanged. candy.

As for whether the 5 million FIL is the so-called smashed funds, and whether it is mainly owned by the mining machine factory, it is not known at present, unless the official detailed test currency flow data. There are also voices that this part of the candy is a BUG that the official hasn’t noticed.

Officially set the block reward 25% to be released immediately (FIP-0004), effective Thursday night

Let’s first figure out the fact that after FIP-0004 takes effect, it will only take effect for subsequent mining, that is, there will be no centralized release of previously accumulated block rewards. After the entry into force, the impact on the current currency circulation is 25%-1/180=0.244.

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Now since the mainnet is launched, all pre-mortgages are “real money” under mortgage, so real money is running the calculation power, so the calculation power growth is very slow.

For the computing power after 170000 blocks, there will be 25% block rewards for immediate release news, so intuitively it is judged that this part of the amount will not be large.

After quantitative calculation:

数据解谜:Filecoin真实流通量?测试币转为真币多少? 被薅多少羊毛? The current growth rate of the entire network’s computing power is about 176T/h, and the daily increase in computing power is 4.125P/day.

数据解谜:Filecoin真实流通量?测试币转为真币多少? 被薅多少羊毛? Therefore, the daily output of new computing power is only 1013FIL. This part of the incremental FIL is released immediately, and the selling pressure on the market is only 247FIL, which is even negligible.

In addition, combined with the total circulation of the test coin we calculated above, the “installation” of FIP-0004 will not have a significant short-term impact, but this impact is constantly superimposed and expanded. For its further impact, we must take a look at the FIL ecology.

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