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On February 20, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (February 10 to February 16). During the latest statistical cycle, the pace of BTC’s rise slightly stagnated. During the entire statistical cycle, only about $1,000 was obtained. Compared with the increase of thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars in the previous statistical cycles, the latest statistical cycle is basically in a state of high and sideways rest, and the last time there was a similar situation of various accounts after sideways. Risk control has generally begun to be deployed. With the sharp rise in the previous two weeks, whether the newly re-established atmosphere of chasing more will change is the key to this weekly report.
The number of total positions (total open positions) in the latest data has further increased from 11,055 to 11,426. This value has risen for the second consecutive week and hit a new high of nearly four weeks. The sideways market did not significantly affect market optimism. Atmosphere, but it’s worth noting that the increase in positions in the latest statistical cycle has decreased compared with the increase in the previous statistical cycle. It can be seen that the high sideways market has inevitably played some bias on the enthusiasm of new funds. negative influence.
In terms of sub-data, the largest dealers’ long positions have dropped from 387 to 368, short positions have remained unchanged at 564, and long and short (hedged) positions have dropped from 89 to 61. The long-term net short position status of dealer accounts is still continuing. What is really worth noting is that in the latest statistical cycle, this type of account has also undergone a clear short adjustment from the perspective of position adjustment, reducing long positions and two-way positions. At the same time, the short position remains unchanged. It can be considered that this type of account is still cautious about this round of high and sideways. After all, the current Bitcoin price is at a historical high level. The potential risk of a large correction can never be ignored for relatively conservative institutional investors. Therefore, it can be considered that this type of The account threw a clearer “air defense” signal in the latest statistical cycle.
Asset management institutions’ long positions dropped from 348 to 338, short positions rose from 265 to 339, and two-way positions dropped from 26 to 9. The net position of this type of account in the previous statistical period has returned to the net long position and the situation has not continued. With the completion of the latest statistical period, the current short position has once again exceeded the long position. As a type of institution that has been holding a positive attitude in the long run, another long-short reversal once again expressed strong risk control expectations. Although such accounts decisively chased more during the previous round of surge, as the pace of the rise slows, large institutions still cannot abandon their risk control thinking.
It can be seen that, considering that the Bitcoin price is currently in a special historical position, institutional investors with strict risk control standards are expected to maintain this relatively bearish cautious attitude for some time to come. Therefore, the interpretation of the adjustment of several types of institutional accounts in the weekly report also requires special treatment in special periods. This seemingly “too conservative” contrarian adjustment is not necessarily a real “misjudgment”. Risk control thinking is also worthwhile Learn.
At this stage, when there is considerable unilateral fluctuations in currency prices during the statistical period, whether institutional investors have made clear unilateral adjustments is more worthy of attention, and this relatively stagnant position adjustment in the sideways phase , No need to over-interpret.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of leveraged fund accounts further increased from 3149 to 3301, the short position increased from 8481 to 8,750 simultaneously, and the two-way position decreased slightly from 665 to 660. Leveraged funds have maintained the idea of two-way simultaneous overweighting initiated in the last statistical cycle, and as mentioned in the previous weekly report, generally speaking, the direction judgment of this type of account will be expressed in simple two-way increase/decrease, and two-way synchronous increase is still It is a relatively clear positive signal, and it can be considered that leveraged funds are still optimistic about the market outlook.
In terms of large positions, long positions rose from 2822 to 3030, short positions rose from 64 to 132, and two-way positions rose from 146 to 151. Large accounts did not continue the net long position adjustment of the previous statistical cycle, but a considerable increase in long positions was also carried out in the latest statistical cycle. The current long-short position ratio of such accounts still maintains at 95 % Or more, is the most determined long supporter of all types of accounts. In the short-term, the overwhelming attitude of such accounts has not shown any signs of faltering.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions rose from 3423 to 3508, and short positions rose from 755 to 760 simultaneously. In the latest statistical cycle, retail accounts have carried out a very limited range of long and short two-way holdings. The stagnant pace of market rise makes it difficult for this type of account to form a consistent judgment, so I chose the relatively safe “hold the troops” and wait for the next round of trends. appear.
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