Modeling based on SpaceRace historical data, derives a simple trend of single-T revenue similar to the network status background.
Original title: “Filecoin’s diverse single-T income, how to define transparency? 》
Written by: Joss
If you torture the data, it will confess everything. A good interpretation of the data is often more important than what you want.
Earlier, the “lucky value”, a key mining indicator, has been briefly calculated in the article “The Force Node in the first half of the space race continues to be highly profitable, and the mining efficiency reaches 138%” . The article mentions the “lucky value” and The direct correlation of “single-T income”, and explain why the single-T income is the core reference indicator of miners’ benefits. This article briefly discusses and analyzes the single-T income.
How to calculate the profit of a single TiB
Basic definition
The Filecoin network’s single-T revenue is the amount of new FIL generated by the entire network in a given period of computing power, and the average value is taken to obtain the new FIL generated per T computing power in the period.
This definition applies to the calculation of single-T revenue for the entire network and the single-T revenue calculation for miner nodes. The “average value” method is not unique, which is why the values presented by multiple Filecoin block explorers are not the same.
Theoretical formula
We shorten the cycle. When the mining cycle is a block height, the single T revenue is the divisor of the newly added revenue at that height and the input computing power at that time. This value only represents a height, but since the denominator of the division is determined to be 1TiB, we only need to weight the numerator to extend the period.
This formula is based on the block height. If you need to use time as the unit, you can simply convert it. According to the current Filecoin network, the block is stably produced in 30s. A block on a natural day is 2880 units, and n-t+1 is 2880. 24h single T income, n-t+1 is 20160, which is the single T income in the past week. This logic is more accurate than taking the median of the divided value, the average of the divided value, etc. The specific formula is as follows (different expression forms can also be different):
Realistic data deduction
Figure 1 shows the revenue performance of a single T within 24 hours of the network when the block height is 70233, which is 0.49FIL/TiB, that is, the revenue generated by the 1T computing power during the period of block height 67354-70233 (a height of 30s).
Figure 1. Filecoin network chain data, filscan.io
Figure 2 shows the performance of the single-T revenue of node t02438 in 24h, and the performance of single-T revenue within 30 days can be viewed at the same time.
Figure 2, t02438 mining data, filscan.io
The above is a simple presentation of the historical data of the network operation during SpaceRace, but based on the historical data modeling and deduction, we can observe the simple trend of future single-T revenue in the background similar to the current network state.
Single T income law (based on the whole network perspective)
FIL release law
Combining the economic model parameters used in the first round of SpaceRace, under the initial baseline of 1EB of the entire network’s computing power and the requirement of 200% growth rate per year, the network will grow by an average of 10 PiB per day. FIL released per height network), the number of FIL released at height t = simple supply part + baseline supply part (before the baseline is met) =
When the network reaches the baseline requirement of computing power, the release of tokens will return to linear release as a whole, that is, the logic of simple supply only; the tokens that use simple supply before reaching the baseline only account for 30%, and the linear release formula after reaching the baseline is the simple supply in the previous article Partial/30%.
Law of computing power growth
Based on SpaceRace’s first round of network-wide historical data trend regression deduction, by comparing exponential regression, logarithmic regression, power regression, and linear regression, it can be concluded that the fit of the linear regression model is as high as 99.23%, that is, through this regression line deduction The accuracy of the subsequent computing power growth trend is high enough without more interference factors.
Figure 3, network computing power data, filscan.io
Select the linear regression formula: y = 3.7967t-6985.4 (R² = 99.23%), where t is the block height, y is the computing power, and t and y are natural numbers greater than 0.
Single T income forecast
At this point we can get the formula for reaching the computing power of the network on a certain day: 3.7967t-6985.4; the formula for new release of FIL every day (the background of the daily growth of the network by 10PiB):
Bring in the income formula of the opening order T:
Through weighting, the net-wide single-T revenue performance from t to n height can be obtained.
Single T income & height example
When the demand for data deduction is adjusted to the single-T income that changes with the height of the entire network (that is, the period to be calculated is only one height), the formula is then fine-tuned to:
In this way, the deduction result is shown in Figure 4. We can see that as the network computing power increases at a constant rate, combined with the FIL release model, the single-T revenue of the entire network drops rapidly in the early stage, and it stabilizes before the baseline is triggered. 0.0001-0.0002 pieces.
Figure 4. High income and single T income
The income of single T in this article mainly includes actual and theoretical conditions. The actual situation is to reflect the actual income of single T according to the network situation in a timely manner; the theoretical situation is the content of the demonstration in this article, which is assumed by the proposed income and network growth. But in fact, because each miner’s situation is different, the single-T income will also be different, so the above argument regards all as the ideal situation of the same operation and maintenance level, and is only for reference.
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