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On January 9, the CFTC announced the latest issue, which is also the first issue of CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report for 2021 (December 30-January 5). In the latest statistical period, BTC has achieved a historic mark of 30,000 integers. Breakthrough, but what’s more interesting is that at the end of the statistical period, there was a deep correction of about $6,000 in the market. However, as the rebound after a sharp drop came out, BTC held the 30,000 mark at the end of the statistical period. Therefore, despite the slight setbacks in market performance during the latest statistical cycle, the overall strong posture continued.
Considering that many types of accounts generally underwent significant position reductions in the last statistical cycle, and the overall market adjustment trend was generally bearish, so after the market achieved a breakthrough in the 30,000 mark, the ideas for adjustment of various accounts Whether a change has taken place will be the key to this weekly position report.
The number of total positions (total open positions) rebounded from 10,653 to 11,296 in the latest data. This value has rebounded from a nearly 11-week low. The accelerated upward trend in the market has quickly returned the market participation enthusiasm. In the last statistical cycle The emergence of concentrated and substantial lightening of positions did not continue. The market’s “anxiety” sentiment caused by the previous high and sideways was reversed by the upward breakthrough of the market.
In terms of sub-data, large-scale brokerages have further increased their long positions from 620 to 793, a record high in the past seven weeks. Short positions remained unchanged at 32. Large institutions were the only ones in the market to lighten up their positions in the last statistical cycle. One type of accounts that have performed a net long position adjustment. In the latest statistical cycle, as the BTC price broke through further upwards, the bullish attitude of the broker’s account was further consolidated, and the current long position quickly returned to near the historical high level. Judging from the position adjustment performance of the latest statistical cycle, it can be considered that large institutions are still quite optimistic about the market outlook, and that BTC still has room for further growth.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of the leveraged fund account further dropped from 3,679 to 3,544, a new low of nearly 12 weeks. The short position rebounded from 8,466 to 9,058, and there was no reduction in holdings synchronized with the long position, and it got rid of The position of the six-week low set in the previous statistical cycle. The logic of leveraged funds adjustment in the latest statistical cycle is clearer. While reducing long positions while increasing short positions, it can be considered that such accounts have a bearish attitude towards the market outlook. Compared with the two-way large-scale simultaneous lightening of positions in the previous statistical cycle, the pessimism of this type of account in the latest statistical cycle is more vigorous, which is completely opposite to the idea of adjusting positions of brokerage accounts. For leveraged funds, the frequency of such clear one-way position adjustments is not high, and the probability of occurrence of unilateral adjustments against the market is lower when the market is in a clear and strong phase. It can be considered that in this history With the emergence of high-level market conditions, this type of account has more obvious “deviations” and “errors” in the judgment of short-term market trends.
In terms of large positions, long positions rose from 2123 to 2672, and short positions rose from 245 to 261. Large accounts have increased their long positions by a considerable amount in the latest statistical cycle. Although short positions have increased simultaneously, judging from the increase in the two directions, the attitude of this type of account in the latest statistical cycle has increased significantly. , Did not adhere to the net air-conditioning warehouse thinking of the previous statistical cycle. It can be considered that after the rapid rise in the BTC price, the accounts of large accounts have been reversed from the profit reduction or risk control reduction in the previous statistical cycle to follow the trend.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions rebounded from 3165 to 3343, and short positions rose from 720 to 774. The position adjustment performance of retail investors in the latest statistical cycle is similar to that of large accounts. They have carried out a two-way simultaneous increase in long and short holdings, and the increase in long positions is relatively greater. The change in market sentiment caused by the market’s rising process has received very intuitive feedback on the ideas for adjusting positions of these two types of accounts. As the most emotional type of account among market participants, retail investors have performed relatively well in adjusting positions in this period. normal”.
The upward momentum of the BTC market has further accelerated after the beginning of 2021. In just one week, the market has completed the upward breakthrough of the 30,000 and 40,000 integer thresholds, continuously rewriting historical highs. In this context, each statistical cycle means that the currency price has considerable changes. The need for market participants to adjust positions in this stage of increased market volatility will increase significantly, so the recent weekly position report will be very ” interesting”. When will the brokerage account give up the continuous net overweight and raise the top risk warning signal? When will leveraged funds give up the idea of short selling against the trend in the past few statistical cycles? And will there be some abnormal position adjustments in other types of accounts? These are topics worthy of continued attention in recent weekly positions.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
