The U.S. election provided a hot spot for the Chinese people throughout the weekend, and all the media enjoyed eating melons with relish. And I just shuddered.
It seems that the current degree of tearing in the entire American society is further intensifying. Biden began to express his speeches as “President-elect.” On the other hand, Trump screamed crazy on Twitter, saying that Biden had stolen his original victory. On the streets, supporters on both sides intensified the confrontation and the conflict was fierce.
Personally, it is too far to talk about the end of the US election. On the contrary, the real fight has just begun.
From the general election on Tuesday to Friday last week, the S&P index rose 6.02%, the Dow Jones index rose 5.19%, and the Nasdaq index, which represents technology stocks, soared 8.56%. The market seems to be optimistic. Biden’s desire to come to power, after all, the Democratic Party supports high-tech companies.
Everyone has read such a multimedia analysis article and should have a general understanding of the current situation in American society.
The United States in our eyes is similar to the United States in the eyes of Biden and the Democrats. It is high-tech, progressive, in developed coastal states and cities, and has a relatively high degree of internationalization. In the eyes of Trump and Republicans, America is another world. After all, the vast areas of the United States are not cities, but rural areas. The biggest feature of these states is tradition.
The market faced is mainly in the United States, and there is no international demand. The main industries are concentrated in a series of traditional industries such as agriculture, catering, construction, gambling, entertainment, and energy. These are the iron plates of the Republican Party. On the other hand, the major high-tech companies of FANNG in the United States all hate Trump from the bottom of their hearts and support the Democratic Party almost without exception.
Take, for example, that Trump’s tax bill was exposed by the New York Times last month. Twitter became a hot search for the first time. But when Biden’s youngest son was exposed, it was blocked by Twitter and Facebook for the first time. From this point of view, we can clearly see the bias of high-tech companies.
Even Wall Street has shown great disgust towards Trump. In this round of the US election, Wall Street’s political donations to Biden are five times that to Trump. So you see, those supporting the Democratic Party are all sunrise industries with high technological content and a high degree of internationalization. Almost all those who support the Republican Party are sunset industries, which are seriously internalized.
There is also the current American universities and colleges, which are basically 100% of the Democratic Party’s plate. After all, Biden can give young people hope when he comes to power. Even so, Trump and Republican supporters have a huge advantage, that is, they have a solid pyramid structure. At the top are a small number of elites. They don’t care about the life and death of the people, but only look at their interests. If you can make money, you can earn it.
The middle class is traditionally white people, Christians, small businesses, and a little money. They don’t care about the development of the world but only care about the continuation of traditional American values. The bottom is the vast rust belt, the bottom people abandoned by internationalization, except white people who do nothing but drugs and alcohol.
It is precisely because of such supporters that the votes of the two parties in the 2020 U.S. election have surpassed the history of the past century. Judging from the vote count in the US election, as of 11 noon on November 8, Biden had a total of more than 75 million votes, while Trump also received more than 71 million votes. Both are far surpassing the highest number of votes in the history of the U.S. presidential election set by former U.S. President Barack Obama with more than 69.4 million votes in 2008.
This result shows at least one point: no matter who is elected, he has to face a torn society, and confrontational emotions are becoming increasingly unstable.
So the question is, is the result of Biden’s victory now really true?
On November 7, U.S. Eastern Time, the Associated Press, Fox News, New York Times, CNN, NBC and other US media announced that the Democratic presidential candidate Biden has won more than 270 electoral votes and won the 2020 presidential election. . After that, the media referred to Biden as “President-elect” (President-elect), and Biden also changed his Twitter certification to “President-elect.”
In fact, as of November 8, many states in the United States were still counting votes, and the counting rate of some key swing states was only about 90%. The media only conducted statistics in advance, and dared to announce it in advance based on certain information. But even so, each media has very different conclusions on Biden’s final electoral votes. FOX News stated that Biden received 290 electoral votes, while the New York Times and The Washington Post stated that Biden received 279 votes.
The results announced by all media now are just a conclusion based on their own judgments. Of course, this conclusion in history is basically consistent with the final result. But it does not mean that such a result is an official announcement.
The U.S. presidential election consists of two stages: one is the counting stage, the counting stage of the states in November, and the voting stage of the Electoral College held in Congress on December 14. The other is the announcement stage. The final official election results need to wait for the states to determine the result of their state’s vote counting, and then count the electoral college votes. This time point is January 6, 2021. Congress announced that on January 20, the winning presidential candidate and his running partner will be sworn in as President and Vice President at the US Capitol.
Among them, according to federal law, each state must resolve ballot disputes and confirm the winner of each state before December 8. According to the electoral college voting system, if this date is exceeded, Congress will no longer accept the state’s voting results.
At this point, I think you have understood the progress of the US election in the next two months. Two months later, the result may be settled, but what we see now is indeed: Trump made his winning statement on Twitter earlier than Biden, and then the media congratulated Biden sideways. Elected. Both candidates insisted that they won.
Under normal circumstances, candidates who know they have lost will choose to congratulate the winner. Of course, Trump must be an alien, but there are two important reasons:
One is that if Trump loses the election, he may face legal trials; the other is that he and his company are already in debt and need the president’s “power” to solve financial problems.
In the past four years in office, Trump has done a series of absurd things, including fraud for favoritism and illegal incidents criticized by the House of Representatives. There is no answer yet. After all, he is the president of the United States and has no legal effect. Complete solution. But if he leaves, the story is different.
At the same time, there has never been a precedent in American history where the current president pardoned himself. Many legal experts believe that self-pardon is unconstitutional because it violates a basic principle that “no one can serve as a judge in his own case.” In May of this year, Biden publicly stated that if he is elected, he will never pardon Trump and ensure that he will be prosecuted to obtain the results due to the law.
At this time, if you were Trump, what would you do? End the confrontation, admit defeat, or fight hard?
Anyway, it’s death, it’s better to let everyone die with me.
When a dog is anxious, he will jump over the wall, not to mention what kind of things will happen if a mad dog is anxious. If on the day of the general election, the number of votes that came out was that Trump was elected, then things may be very different. After all, he is the reigning president, and it is nothing more than the intensification of internal conflicts in American society. No matter how troublesome the next two months are, there won’t be too many tricks. Young people take to the streets to demonstrate, and the U.S. stock market pulls back.
In fact, for Wall Street and the capital of the world, whoever is elected will eventually be elected. If Biden is elected, of course it will be better, and American society will develop for the better. If Trump is re-elected, it is nothing more than boots landing, but he still has to eat, calculate the gains and losses, and then start to look at the future of the Fed. After all, for the US stock market, releasing water is the most important thing.
What capital is waiting for is not a certain candidate, but the end of the US general election. What should I do when the dust falls.
But then again, don’t think that the rise in US stocks during the general election means that the market is beginning to thrive and have confidence in the market outlook. To some extent, this is more like the end of a crossbow, the final gambling.
In the past week covered by the US general election, the Turkish central bank governor resigned and the finance minister resigned. The lira plummeted 30% from a year ago. The epidemic in Europe has worsened, with over 1.78 million cases in France, and the pressure on hospitals continues to increase. Italy returned to its lockdown state, and Portugal’s hardest-hit area covered more than 71% of the country’s population.
The October non-agricultural report showed that the number of U.S. employers hired workers in October was the lowest in five months, which means that the economic stimulus plan has not achieved the expected effect. Up to now, the number of confirmed cases in the United States has reached nearly 10 million. To a large extent, the recovery of the economy has been contained. On the other hand, with the arrival of winter, the second recurrence of the epidemic has lingered on the road in Europe and America.
Now Wall Street is betting that Biden will come to power, but the two parties divide the Senate and the House of Representatives. If Biden is elected, the Democratic Party will control the Senate and House of Representatives. This is the best result. Because it is expected to introduce a large-scale stimulus plan to continue the current economic policy to deal with the impact of the epidemic. But at present, the probability of split between the two parties is higher, and there may be a tug of war against large-scale stimulus policies.
Even if there was a surge in U.S. stocks in the early hours of the night, this is not a continuous rise, but a signal of accelerating to catch up to the top. The gradual decline also predicts market unease. As mentioned in my article a year ago, US stocks are likely to form a historical double top ending and complete the turning point. Looking now, it may be running wildly on this road.
There is a high probability that there will be a callback in the US stock market. Even if Biden’s election will eventually be confirmed, the market still cannot change the fate of history.
But the problem appeared in the two months before the final confirmation by the US President. In these two months, the fate of investment products in the world will be affected by one person, and that person is Trump. At this moment, everyone has not understood that Biden’s becoming “president-elect” means that everything in the next two months will be out of control.
Only Trump can decide the fate of the world in the next two months. This is the most terrifying part of the whole thing.
Don’t think that he is the dog of the prodigal. Those who can play golf in peace on the day of the election are those who have anticipated the results and are fully prepared. Don’t look at so many countries all over the world congratulating Biden, including old capitalist countries such as Canada, Britain, Europe, Japan and South Korea, and even the emerging country India. This can only show that they are unhappy with Trump, but in the final analysis, these countries are just scraps.
The real protagonist did not say a word. This ancient oriental country was calmly waiting for the next thing to happen. Up to this moment, although Trump has not many cards in his hand, he has the most important one, that is, he is the current US president.
After the media announced Biden’s election, Trump’s fans were not discouraged. On the contrary, they were even more excited to demand a fair vote. If a vaccine in the United States emerges for a period of time and is proven effective, it may change the direction of the market to a large extent, including a short-term economic rebound, which will become the political achievements of the incumbent president. Rekindle the enthusiasm of Trump supporters to impact the election results.
Coincidentally, this happened at the time when I was writing the article. Trump tweeted that there was a huge good news. The vaccine was successful and 90% effective, and the stock market would rise sharply. But in the final analysis, this can only help, but it is not a permanent cure.
If it is delayed until the Trump team’s appeal to the Supreme Court on December 14, it may also cause the court to face a dilemma. Now 6 of the 9 judges are Republicans. In theory, if the appeal is finally ruled in Trump’s case. But now the results of the voting are too far apart, and the media is leaning towards Biden on one side. This makes it extremely difficult for the court to force Trump to win the case.
What kind of approach can make the whole campaign completely reverse the situation? And it worked immediately?
There is only one answer: war.
The US presidential election is a fixed clause written in the constitution, which is generally inviolable. Even if a civil war is launched, it will not affect the presidential election of the United States. However, in a wartime state, the United States will implement special wartime laws, and the results of the general election may be postponed. Judging from historical experience, war will not affect the implementation of the election itself. However, it will have a major impact on the outcome of the US election, and even a reversal.
President McKinley, who launched the Spanish-American War, was because of this short but glorious war that the United States won the territories of Guam, Wake Island, and Puerto Rico at a small price. Cuba and the Philippines have also become American spheres of influence. This won McKinley an overwhelming victory in the 1900 election.
Even Lincoln was re-elected during the wartime election, when the famous Civil War in American history broke out. The final victory on the battlefield changed the domestic political landscape of the United States and paved the way for Lincoln’s re-election and his status in history.
At this moment today, it is actually clear at a glance. The answer is ready to come. There is no need to say who is the opponent. It just so happens that the ancient eastern countries also need such an excuse to complete their historical mission. It doesn’t really matter who the next president of the United States will be. Use goodwill to do what should be done. As for the outcome of the US election, it can only be left to the fate of the candidates themselves.
If it happens, then it is more likely to be lightning than lasting, sea and air instead of land. If it is lasting, it will benefit Trump, but history will not allow this to happen, and the turning point has come. The result of the lightning must be the defeat of the United States, and this will determine Biden’s final appearance in 2021.
But Biden fans are all educators and college students, and they have nothing to do with them. Trump fans are all red-necked, reckless martial artists who copy guys if they don’t agree. The general situation is over, and these people at the bottom may be allowed to do anything unimaginable, such as assassinating the new president, and this outcome will eventually lead to anarchy chaos in the United States. After all, history is just a series of accidental events.
Of course, I did not say that these things will happen. But to some extent, the uncertainty is increasing. The feeling now is that the frogs are boiled in warm water. By the time it erupts, it may be too late. You must not think that this is impossible.
A very important signal appeared: silver fell and crude oil rose.
When everyone thinks that singing and dancing are going to rise forever, it is often the most terrifying point in the plot reversal. Metals, which are least sensitive to the economic cycle, continue to decline, while crude oil continues to rise. It expresses the conflict between the rising speculative sentiment of the market paralyzed by surface phenomena and the continuous increase of uncontrollable factors.
The current U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar are actually very fragile. If there is an unexpected event, what do you think will happen? As I have been emphasizing in my article over the past few months, the stagflation of US stocks in the past period has essentially completed a handover. What’s going to happen next is agency killing agency.
The occurrence of any kind of black swan event in the next two months may cause the US stock market to continue to blow again.
Many people will ask, if this happens, will Bitcoin and Ethereum rise sharply? Don’t you mean buying gold in troubled times? Will a value currency like Bitcoin soar? In fact, many people have misunderstood the market signals.
In the past period of time, the rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum has been reported by the media as the result of the entrance of Wall Street institutions. This is not a problem. The point of the problem is that for Wall Street institutions, US stocks are the investment market, and Bitcoin is just a speculative market.
Everyone must not have the illusion that Bitcoin is very important to the global market. Based on the current market value and daily transaction volume, it is far from being ranked. Why does Bitcoin have a circuit breaker in March? The essential reason is that in the process of the meltdown of US stocks, institutions forced a large number of bitcoins to close out positions in US stocks. However, there was a large drop, which caused all the buying units in the global market to be emptied instantly, and there was a violent decline.
In the current Bitcoin market, retail investors are not even important, not even cannon fodder. At this moment, compared to the Bitcoin market in March this year, what is even more frightening is that Wall Street institutions have entered the market one after another. This only represents a possibility: if Bitcoin will plummet in the future, it is likely to be the result of institutions killing institutions.
The current rise, especially the rise during the US general election, is for the footnote left by future hedging. When institutions began to kill institutions in the bitcoin market, there was only one ending, and that would be even more tragic than the 312 bitcoin circuit breaker.
In the next two months, the possibility of Bitcoin fuse again is gradually increasing. This time, there is no bottom.
First of all, everyone must figure out that Bitcoin’s blowout again does not conflict with the price of $60,000 before the end of 2021. There is no such thing as a bull not a bull market. Many investors have been using the bull market to paralyze themselves in the past, but it does not exist at all. Bitcoin is now just a pawn in the macroeconomic market. At least at this stage, it is still very, very far away from the protagonist.
Now that in 2021, Wall Street is going to talk about Bitcoin, PayPal and various overseas banks have prepared a feast of leeks. Then there will be a very important prerequisite, that is, to force out all the people who used low-cost chips in the previous ten years, one to count one, and to settle the settlement bit by bit, so that they will not want to live and die.
If this is the result, once the Bitcoin fuse occurs, the low point may be lower than everyone thinks. Only by massacre can all the chips in the hands of long-term Bitcoin holders be forced out. Even if this is not the result, Bitcoin is now in a state of serious overbought, with no room for upwards and no bottom for downwards. This may be a prospect of what will happen in the next two months.
But this is not to say that there is no hope in 2021. All phoenix nirvana requires faith, and all rise comes from rebirth from the ashes. The outbreak always comes from when everyone loses confidence. Only in this way can the conversion of ordinary people’s belief in Bitcoin be completed in the first stage. The old overlord is falling apart and falling apart, and the new overlord is rising. And the new god will complete the awakening in the ruins.
Even in the next two months of 2020, it does not mean that digital currencies have completely lost their light and hope. In history, every time a war broke out, there was always a simultaneous surge in crude oil and copper. However, gold and silver lag behind. Usually in the black swan event, gold and silver fall first and then rise. Copper is different. It is the most sensitive metal to the economic cycle and the most sensitive commodity to the Black Swan incident.
If at this stage, there is a digital currency that is already at a historical low, and then continues to skyrocket due to the power of consensus, then it is likely to attract the attention of all digital currency investors around the world. This will be very similar to the early days of Ethereum. In the early days of the last bull market, Ethereum also used a round of skyrocketing to complete investors’ understanding of smart contracts and ERC20.
Unlike the past, the time when Ethereum rose in the past was also the time when Bitcoin rose. And this time, if the rise occurs at the moment of Bitcoin’s plunge, it will not only attract the attention of the world, but also become a historical dash of the birth of a new king, which means the rise of the third largest blockchain economy.
In the past three years, all digital currency projects that were born and still alive have been counted by ten fingers. If in the next two or three months, it can shoulder its historical mission. Then by 2021, this digital currency may dominate all markets except Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the remaining is king.
The next bull market will be launched by Bitcoin and Ethereum together with it.
