In the past month, the price of Bitcoin has hit a record high continuously, breaking through multiple integer barriers in rapid succession. According to the latest data from CoinMetrics, on November 17, the corrected price of Bitcoin has reached US$17,682, the highest point since December 18, 2017, and the fifth highest price in Bitcoin history.
Bitcoin has risen sharply and the market sentiment is optimistic. Behind this, how has the fundamentals of Bitcoin changed? On the other hand, the turmoil of compliance of the exchanges has not been resolved, and under the strong supervision, what new changes have been made in the fund movements among the exchanges? PAData will review the picture of Bitcoin’s rise through recent on-chain data and market data.
The price of the currency has hit a new high, but the computing power has dropped slightly
According to CoinMetrics’ statistics, in the past month, Bitcoin has “striked” from $11,503 on October 15 to $17,682 on November 17, an increase of 53.72%.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory, it can be found that Bitcoin has basically risen rapidly at a rate of breaking through an integer threshold every week. On October 21st, Bitcoin broke through $12,000. On October 24, Bitcoin broke through $13,000. On November 4, Bitcoin broke through $14,000. On November 5, Bitcoin broke through $15,000. On November 12, Bitcoin broke through $15,000. The currency exceeded $16,000, and on November 17, Bitcoin broke through $17,000. As of press time, Bitcoin has exceeded $18,000. Moreover, Bitcoin has not seen a significant correction during this round of rising, and the “all-in-one” rise shows strong upward momentum.
However, unlike the currency price increase, Bitcoin’s entire network computing power has been generally stable in the past month, with a slight decline. According to statistics, the computing power of the entire network dropped slightly from 144.85EH/s on October 15 to 137.33EH/s on November 15, a decrease of about 5.20%, but overall, the computing power of the entire network basically remained at 125EH. /s around. From the perspective of the relative increase in computing power and currency price, the profit forecast of Bitcoin miners in the last month has improved significantly compared with the first half of the year.
From the basic data of on-chain transactions, the Bitcoin network has also been active in the past month. On the one hand, the number of active addresses on the chain continues to grow. According to statistics, the number of active addresses on the chain on October 15 was about 1.035 million, and on November 17, the number of active addresses on the chain was about 1,142,700, an overall increase of about 10.38%. . Among them, on November 9th, the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin chain reached 1,188,900, setting a new high since January 2018, and also the seventh highest daily activity in Bitcoin history. And, as a whole, the number of active addresses on the chain in the last month is at a historically high level.
On the other hand, the number of daily transactions on the Bitcoin chain also showed a slight upward trend, from 337,700 on October 15 to 350,900, an increase of about 3.92%.
Judging from the overall historical trend, the current number of daily transactions is close to the number of daily transactions in the early period of the bull market from October 2016 to July 2017, and is higher than the historical 75th (251,600 times) line, which is in the active trading period.
The volume of large spot orders exceeds that of futures, and the volume of futures positions has risen moderately
With the currency price skyrocketing, market trading volume is also rising. It is estimated that from October 15th to November 16th, Bitcoin’s large spot trading volume will be about 2.032 billion U.S. dollars, of which, large purchase orders will be about 933 million U.S. dollars, and large sell orders will be about 1.099 billion U.S. dollars.
Judging from the situation of large single-day spot transactions, on November 6th, after the currency price broke the $15,000 mark, the volume of large single transactions in the Bitcoin spot market was significantly higher, reaching approximately $183 million. As the price of Bitcoin continued to rise, on November 10 and November 13, the volume of large orders in the spot market also exceeded $100 million. From an overall point of view, in the past month, the price of Bitcoin and the spot trading volume have basically formed mutual support, and each increase in volume has been accompanied by a further increase in the price of the currency.
It is worth noting that in the past month, the volume of large spot orders was higher than that of large futures orders, which is the opposite of the situation earlier this year. According to the incomplete data of the contract emperor, it is estimated that between October 15 and November 16, the large transaction volume of Bitcoin futures is about 1.548 billion US dollars, of which the large buy order is about 787 million US dollars, and the large sell order is about 7.61 One hundred million U.S. dollars.
Judging from the transactions of large single-day goods orders, the multi-day trading volume exceeded 80 million US dollars. Among them, the total transaction of large goods orders on November 10 was about 97.59 million US dollars, which was the highest day of futures trading volume in the past month. From the perspective of volume and price trends, the correspondence between futures trading volume and currency price trends is not as obvious as spot trading, but in general, futures market trading volume has risen earlier than currency prices.
In the past month, the amount of positions held in the main Bitcoin futures market has also increased moderately. As of November 15, OKEx’s contract holdings amounted to approximately US$757 million, followed by Binance at approximately US$677 million. BitMEX is affected by compliance risks, and its futures trading market share has declined. As of November 15, the amount of futures holdings was only US$416 million, which was lower than the other four exchanges.
From a trend point of view, OKEx, Binance and Bybit have all seized the market opportunities brought about by the rise in the price of Bitcoin. The futures holdings of the three exchanges in the last month have increased by 21.51%, 64.32% and 45.45% respectively. Among them, Binance’s Bitcoin futures holdings have increased significantly and their performance is eye-catching. In addition, the futures positions of Huobi and BitMEX remained basically stable with no significant changes.
Binance and Huobi have high outflows, and Coinbase is still the most “sucking gold”
Recently, many exchanges at home and abroad have experienced compliance disturbances, which cast a shadow over the hot market. At the same time, investors are also more inclined to look for safer trading markets, which is a pattern of exchanges. Change provides possibility and space.
According to Chain.info’s tracking analysis of the wallet addresses of various exchanges in the past month, in addition to OKEx still banning the withdrawal of coins, Binance and Huobi both have a large amount of Bitcoin flowing to other exchanges, of which Binance lost about 61,700 Bitcoin, Huobi lost about 49,500 Bitcoins. In addition, Kraken, Bitstamp, Bitfinex and Coinbase also have more than 5,000 bitcoins flowing to other exchanges.
In terms of inflows, Coinbase received most of the bitcoins that flowed out of other exchanges. The inflow in the most recent month reached about 64,800 bitcoins, followed by Binance, and the total amount of bitcoins that flowed into Binance from other exchanges in the last month The amount reached about 45,800 pieces. In addition, Huobi also received approximately 12,100 bitcoins from other exchanges, and Kraken received approximately 7 million bitcoins from other exchanges. However, despite this, Huobi and Binance still “lost” part of the market in terms of the difference between the inflow and outflow of the stock market.
The flow of funds between exchanges is actually not only the result of users voting with their feet, but also a signal of changes in the market structure. Judging from the movement of funds between exchanges in the last month, there are two types of capital flows that deserve attention. The first direction is from Binance to Coinbase. In the past month, Binance has accumulated 191 large transfers to Coinbase, with a total amount of approximately 45,500, which far exceeds the flow of funds between other exchanges.
According to PAData’s previous analysis of the flow of funds between exchanges, Binance’s large amount of funds flowing to Coinbase has increased this year. In April this year, the number of large transactions transferred from Binance to Coinbase was also the largest among all exchanges. The cumulative number of times reached 178, and the cumulative amount reached 36,500 BTC. In 2019, the large amount of funds outflow from Binance mainly went to Huobi and OKEx.
Another flow of funds worth watching is from Huobi to Binance. According to statistics, there were 372 large transactions transferred from Huobi to Binance in the last month, with a cumulative amount of approximately 33,600 Bitcoins, which accounted for 36.37% of the total funds transferred from Huobi to Binance last year. Huobi’s large outflow of funds to Binance has shown an accelerating tendency this year. In addition, Huobi has also flowed a lot of funds to Coinbase in the last month, and the accumulated large transfer amount reached 9,046 BTC.
