Key Points
- Ethereum declined 0.95% to $3,560.78 over the past 24 hours, lagging behind the broader crypto market’s 0.41% gain.
- U.S. Senate proposals to extend CFTC oversight to Ethereum and DeFi protocols introduced fresh compliance concerns, weighing on sentiment.
- Technical indicators point to bearish momentum, with ETH trading below its 30-day simple moving average and approaching critical Fibonacci support near $3,532.
- Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $152 million in net outflows on November 10, ending a 19-day streak of inflows and signaling short-term profit-taking.
- Despite near-term weakness, long-term holders continue accumulating ETH, with over $500 million acquired by whales in the past week and 26% of supply locked in staking.
Regulatory Crosswinds Stir Short-Term Caution
Recent activity in the U.S. Senate has reignited concerns over Ethereum’s regulatory future. Lawmakers circulated two draft proposals—the CLARITY Act and the Responsible Financial Innovation Act—aimed at granting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission expanded authority over digital assets like ETH and the decentralized finance ecosystems built atop them. While such measures could eventually offer regulatory clarity and institutional legitimacy, market participants reacted with caution, focusing instead on the immediate compliance burdens these frameworks might impose on developers, validators, and DeFi protocols.
The uncertainty triggered a noticeable uptick in speculative trading volume, which climbed 16.69% to $34.4 billion in 24 hours. Comments from Senator Cory Booker, emphasizing enhanced safeguards for retail investors, underscored potential restrictions that could reshape how Ethereum is used in permissionless applications. Historically, regulatory ambiguity has fueled volatility more than it has influenced long-term fundamentals, but the near-term price action suggests traders are pricing in a higher risk premium until the CFTC’s role and the legal status of ETH are definitively clarified.
Technical Terrain Turns Hostile
Price action has shifted decisively bearish from a technical standpoint. Ethereum slid beneath its 30-day simple moving average of $3,825 and now hovers just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,532—a critical support threshold derived from its October rally. Momentum indicators corroborate the downtrend, with the MACD registering a bearish -163.68 and the Relative Strength Index dipping to 43.29, well below neutral territory.
Traders are closely monitoring the $3,500 to $3,532 zone for signs of stabilization. A daily candle closing below this band could accelerate selling pressure, especially given the $811 billion in open interest across perpetual futures markets, which remains vulnerable to cascading liquidations. Adding to the cautious sentiment, the 24-hour funding rate for ETH perpetuals softened to +0.0024%, indicating diminished appetite for leveraged long positions. Should bears push the price below $3,400—the 200-day simple moving average—the technical case for a broader correction would gain significant credibility.
Institutional Flows Reveal Divergent Strategies
November 10 marked a notable reversal in institutional sentiment, as U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $152 million in net outflows. This ended a sustained 19-day sequence of inflows and suggests that short-term-oriented investors are locking in gains following ETH’s 88% year-to-date appreciation. However, this pullback in ETF demand does not reflect a consensus bearish view across the board. On the contrary, large-scale holders—often referred to as whales—are actively accumulating at current price levels.
For instance, entities like BitMine recently acquired 14,665 ETH, equivalent to roughly $52 million, through Galaxy Digital. This divergence illustrates a classic market dynamic: tactical traders exit while strategic accumulators step in. Further reinforcing this narrative, the ETH-to-BTC exchange rate has fallen to 0.0335, its lowest point since June 2025, signaling a shift in capital preference toward Bitcoin amid macroeconomic crosscurrents. Nevertheless, the sustained staking participation—currently locking up 26% of Ethereum’s circulating supply—demonstrates enduring confidence in the network’s long-term utility and economic model.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s recent decline stems from a confluence of regulatory scrutiny, deteriorating technical structure, and short-term institutional profit-taking. Yet, beneath the surface, structural supports remain robust. Whale accumulation exceeding half a billion dollars over the past week and deep staking participation provide a floor that could cushion further downside. The immediate focus lies on whether ETH can defend the $3,500 psychological and technical support level ahead of the November 11 CFTC hearing on digital commodities. That forum may either ease regulatory fears or introduce new uncertainties—either outcome will likely steer Ethereum’s trajectory in the days ahead.
