The trading volume of the DOGE/USDT trading pair accounts for nearly 80% of the total trading volume, which may mean that the main buyer of Dogecoin is domestic users.
Original title: “Who is buying Dogecoin? Over 80% of the trading volume comes from stable currency trading pairs, and domestic users are the main buyers.》
Written by: Carol
“To the moon” is a jargon in the circle, which means that the price of the currency skyrocketed.
But the joke is about to come true. In early April, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that he would use SpaceX to bring a DOGE (Dogecoin) to the moon. Since then, DOGE has started a rapid rise mode. After breaking through US$0.1 on April 14, it immediately hit a record high of US$0.43 on April 19. The currency price has soared by 336% in just one week. The return on investment soared directly from 113% to 587%, and the market value ranking also entered the top ten.
Behind the DOGE boom, what are the interesting changes in Dogecoin’s on-chain data? As an imitation currency of BTC, how is DOGE’s current development compared with BTC? Who is buying DOGE? How does the popularity of social media affect currency prices? PAData analyzed this year’s DOGE market data and on-chain data and found that:
- From the perspective of earnings performance, DOGE’s rapid rise started in mid-April this year. The currency price has risen by more than 7045% this year, while BTC has only risen by 90% during the same period. The sharp rise in DOGE increased its 30-day rate of return from 65% to 587%, reaching a peak of 941%, reversing the previous trend of basically moderate rise.
- From the perspective of trading volume sources, the main buyers of this round of DOGE may come from China. The trading volume of Binance, OKEx, and Huobi accounts for more than 60% of the total trading volume of DOGE, and the trading volume of DOGE/USDT trading pairs accounts for more than 60% of the total trading volume of DOGE. The proportion of total transaction volume is as high as 78%, which is much higher than the cumulative 9% transaction volume of DOGE and TRY, USD, EUR and other legal currency trading pairs. Within the scope of the market covered by the three exchanges, the market that needs to use stablecoins as a trading medium is mainly the domestic market, which may mean that the main buyers of DOGE are domestic users.
- Judging from the on-chain data, Dogecoin’s on-chain activity has increased significantly this month. The number of daily active addresses in April increased by 37.81% month-on-month, the average daily settlement total increased by 1258.02% month-on-month, and the average daily transaction fee per transaction increased 114 times.
- Judging from the popularity of the media and DOGE’s currency price trend, both the Twitter and Google search indexes are positively correlated with the currency price trend in the past week, and have the strongest positive correlation with the currency price of the day. Especially in April, the number of tweets was strongly correlated with the currency price trend within a week, and the Pearson coefficient between the number of tweets and the DOGE currency price in different time periods exceeded 0.7.
- The correlation between the spreading heat and the currency price in different time periods does not show the characteristics of increasing or decreasing with the passage of time, which means that the influence of the spreading heat on the currency price in different time periods has a certain degree of randomness.
DOGE has risen by 7000% this year, and 80% of its trading volume comes from stablecoin trading volume pairs
Since the beginning of this year, DOGE has risen from 0.0057 USD at the beginning of the year (January 1) to the current (April 19) USD 0.4073. The overall increase has reached a staggering 7045.61%, which is much higher than the 89.71% increase in the BTC price during the same period.
The rapid rise of DOGE actually began in April this year. According to statistics, since April, DOGE has soared from $0.062 to $0.407, an increase of about 557.04%. The largest one-day increase during the period was 101.49% on April 16. On that day, DOGE rose from $0.1816 at the opening to $0.3659 at the closing.
Affected by the rapid rise in currency prices, this year’s 30-day investment return rate of DOGE has changed from last year’s basically stable situation, showing a significant upward trend. According to statistics, last year, DOGE’s 30-day return rate rose from -10.7% to 42.6%. The overall increase was about 53 percentage points, and the annual average value was about 7.3%. The trend for the whole year was steady and rising. This year, DOGE’s 30-day return rate soared from 64.7% to 586.6%. The overall increase was about 521 percentage points, and the annual average value was about 211.1%. The annual rate of return has been on the rise, but the volatility is large. During the same period, BTC’s earnings were more stable and the 30-day rate of return was less volatile. Last year, the average value of BTC’s 30-day rate of return was about 11.7%, and this year’s average value was about 33.6%, an increase of only about 22 percentage points.
Where does DOGE’s upward momentum come from this year? From the perspective of the composition of the DOGE secondary market transaction volume, the main funding may come from domestic sources. According to the distribution of the exchange’s DOGE trading volume, Binance, OKEx and Huobi Global are currently the three main trading markets, with trading volume accounting for 34.64%, 14.19% and 11.38%, respectively, and the cumulative proportion is about 60.21%. If the trading volume of ZB.COM, Gate.io, Kucoin, FTX, Biki, MXC.COM and other exchanges are added, the trading volume of these exchanges, mainly domestic users, will account for 68.53 of the total trading volume of DOGE. %.
In addition, from the perspective of the trading volume of DOGE’s main trading pairs, the current trading volume of DOGE/USDT accounts for about 78.65%. If the trading volume of DOGE and BUSD, HUSD, USDC is included, then DOGE and stable currency trading The total transaction volume will account for more than 80%. On the contrary, the total trading volume of DOGE and USD and EUR and other legal currency trading pairs accounted for only about 9%. Within the scope of the market covered by Binance, OKEx and Huobi Global, the markets that need to use stablecoins as a trading medium are mainly the domestic market, which may also mean that the main buyers of DOGE are domestic users.
The number of DOGE daily active addresses increased by 38% month-on-month, and the average monthly settlement total increased by 1258% month-on-month
Driven by DOGE’s good market performance, the on-chain activity of the underlying network Dogecoin has also been comprehensively and significantly improved.
From the perspective of user scale, Dogecoin’s daily average number of active addresses on the chain exceeded 100,000 in April, reaching about 124,900, which is about 1/9 of the daily average number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network during the same period. Although Dogecoin and Bitcoin still have a large gap in the absolute number of active addresses, this year’s Bitcoin network’s average daily active addresses have steadily declined. Dogecoin’s daily active addresses have increased rapidly. The number of average active addresses increased by 37.81% from the previous month’s average.
Compared with the number of active addresses, Dogecoin’s daily on-chain transactions have increased significantly. According to statistics, the number of on-chain transactions of Dogecoin this year has risen from 34,600 at the beginning of the year to 70,900 at present, representing an overall increase of about 104.91%. Among them, the increase in April was about 51.92%. During the same period, the number of daily Bitcoin transactions on the chain dropped from 261,300 to 207,300, an overall decrease of approximately 20.67%.
If you comprehensively consider the ratio of the monthly average daily active addresses to the daily average number of transactions, it can be found that since this year, the number of transactions per 10,000 active addresses of Dogecoin has risen slightly from 4,210.53 to 4,467.57, an increase of about 6.10%. The number of Bitcoin transactions per 10,000 active addresses dropped slightly from 2836.81 to 2559.02, a decrease of about 9.79%. Overall, the activity of active addresses in the two networks remained basically stable, but the activity of Dogecoin’s active addresses increased slightly.
Another point worth noting is that recently, Dogecoin’s total on-chain settlement has exceeded Bitcoin many times. For example, on April 16, 17 and 19, the total on-chain settlement of Dogecoin in these three days was about 64.92 billion U.S. dollars, 22.93 billion U.S. dollars, and 47.73 billion U.S. dollars, while the total on-chain settlement of Bitcoin on the same day was about 509.8. Billion U.S. dollars, 20.96 billion U.S. dollars and 27.87 billion U.S. dollars.
Dogecoin’s monthly average on-chain settlement amount has increased greatly this year, although this may be temporary. According to statistics, in April this year, Dogecoin’s daily average on-chain settlement totaled approximately US$11.0 billion, an increase of 1258.02% from the March average, which is equivalent to a 13.5 times increase. During the same period, Bitcoin increased by 24.96%.
Active on-chain transaction activity has also increased the income of Dogecoin miners. This year, Dogecoin’s transaction fees have reached US$99.92 million. Among them, the total transaction fees generated in April alone reached US$563 million, which is higher than the sum of the previous three months. The peak single-day handling fee this year occurred on April 16, and the handling fee incurred on that day reached US$187,700, accounting for approximately 18.71% of the total handling fee this year.
Judging from the average value of single transaction fees, this year’s Dogecoin daily transaction fees rose from 0.0056 US dollars at the beginning of the year to current 0.64 US dollars, an increase of 11350%, which is equivalent to a 114 times increase. During the same period, the daily transaction fee of Bitcoin rose from US$1.83 to US$26.74, an increase of about 1361.20%, which is equivalent to a 14-fold increase. If DOGE continues to maintain a rapid upward momentum, it does not rule out the possibility that more computing power will participate in Dogecoin mining in the future, and transaction fees may be reduced by then.
The number of DOGE related tweets in a single day exceeds 400,000 this month, and the social popularity is strongly correlated with the currency price within a week
Many people think that this year’s DOGE surge is related to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s repeated “calling orders” on Twitter. Then, to what extent has Dogecoin’s popularity on social media platforms and cyberspace affected The actual currency price of DOGE?
Late January and mid-April this year are the two time periods when the number of #Dogecoin Twitter peaks. Among them, on January 29, the number of tweets with the #Dogecoin topic on Twitter reached a peak of 967,100, which is the same period # About 4.8 times the number of Bitcoin topic tweets.
According to statistics on the correlation between the number of tweets and the DOGE price in different time periods, the number of tweets is positively correlated with the DOGE currency price, that is, the more tweets and the higher the popularity of social media, the higher the DOGE currency price. Among them, the number of tweets has the highest correlation with the DOGE currency price on the day. The average Pearson coefficient for the first four months is about 0.63. Secondly, the correlation with the average DOGE price for the next seven days is also relatively high. The average Pearson coefficient for the first four months is also relatively high. The coefficient is about 0.60. This means that the greater the number of tweets, the higher the DOGE currency price on that day, and the higher the average currency price in the following week.
It should be noted that the correlation between the number of tweets and currency prices in different time periods does not show an increase or decrease over time, which means that the number of tweets has an impact on currency prices in different time periods Has a certain degree of randomness. For example, in February, the number of tweets has the smallest impact on the currency price of the day, but over time, the impact is increasing, but in April, the number of tweets has a greater impact on the currency price of the day and the next three days. The impact on the currency price of the other two time periods is reduced.
From the perspective of broader network communication, the positive correlation between the popularity of communication and DOGE still exists. According to the Google Search Index, like Twitter, late January and mid-April this year are also the two peak periods of Dogecoin Google Search Index. On April 16, Dogecoin’s Google search index was about 173.3, and Bitcoin’s search index was about 178.8. The two are very close.
According to the statistics of the correlation between the search index and the DOGE price in different time periods, the search index and the DOGE currency price are positively correlated, that is, the higher the search index and the higher the popularity of the Internet, the higher the DOGE currency price. Among them, the search index has the highest correlation with the DOGE currency price of the day. The average Pearson coefficient for the first four months is about 0.74, which is significantly higher than the correlation between the currency prices of the other three time periods. The average Pearson coefficient of the other three time periods The coefficients are all around 0.60. This means that the more Google searches, the higher the DOGE currency price that day. And in terms of the impact on DOGE’s currency price on the day, the Google search index is more relevant than the number of tweets.
However, the Google search index also has a certain degree of randomness to the correlation between currency prices in different time periods. For example, in March, the Google search index had the greatest correlation with the currency price of the next day, while in April, the Google search index had the greatest correlation with the currency price of the day.
“Dogecoin (DOGE) is worth holding for a long time?” After DOGE skyrocketed, it appeared on Weibo hot search. Under this topic, the 21st Century Business Herald launched a vote on whether it is worth holding DOGE for a long time. At present, 4437 of the 11,000 people think it is not worth holding for a long time, accounting for 40.37%, and 3771 people think it is worth holding for a long time, accounting for 34.28%. Dogecoin was born as a joke, but whether it should still be treated with a joke mentality in the future is still unconclusive.
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