Listen to the top investors in the blockchain talk about the 2021 “Wealth Code”.
In 2020, Amber’s plot is ups and downs, with a desperate 312 plunge; everyone’s highly anticipated Bitcoin halving; a farming boom under the DeFi wave; and the successful deployment of the Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain.
In 2020, a large number of institutions will begin to enter the market. Giants such as Grayscale Fund PayPal are embracing cryptocurrency, and “institutional cattle” are entering Amber. With the blessing of multiple factors, after Bitcoin broke through the highest point since 2017, it has repeatedly set new highs, and today it has set a new high again reaching $28,500.
Although 2020 will be colorful and colorful, 2021 will be more anticipated: Will the institutional bull continue? Will the Bitcoin ETF pass? How far can the cryptocurrency, which is gradually recognized by the giants in the traditional field, go and how high can it fly? Where can the entire encryption industry be changed?
Tonight, PANews invited the big coffees who are on the front line of blockchain investment observation to share their vision of 2020 and 2021.
Guests:
Co-founder of Huobi: Du Jun
Founder of Axia8 Ventures: Lin Weihao
Founder of X-order and Partner of NGC Ventures: Tao Rongqi
Why do institutions choose to “buy” Bitcoin now?
Bi Tongtong: Behind the explosion of Bitcoin, a large number of Bitcoin-sweeping institutions have also surfaced, such as Grayscale Fund, Microstrategy, MASSMUTUAL, etc., all of which are Bitcoin’s layout, and even “the higher the price, the more you buy” the trend of. From the perspective of investors, why are institutions “buying” during this period of time. Is it not good to buy when the currency price is cheap at the beginning of the year?
Du Jun: We are also thinking about why there is no grayscale in Asia, or we are trying to plan an Asian version of grayscale capital. Why not? In fact, these financial centers in Asia, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo, have no way to carry out such business with their existing laws and policies. Not to mention that our institutions in mainland China have no way to do this.
In fact, overseas channels were slowly opened up in the past two years. Grayscale actually made a good attempt.
This is the first point. In fact, the gray scale was done very early. It started in 2013. At the beginning, the management scale was very small. It may only reach one or two billion US dollars last year. This year’s rapid approach is now nearly 20 billion US dollars. The first is the issue of channels, allowing a channel to allow a large amount of funds to enter the market, including Coinbase to allow legal and compliant account opening.
The second one actually comes from the FOMO effect that I think is still a market, the price rises, and then the wealth effect. I think in fact, everyone may think that the assets in this may not be understood yet. In fact, what we are talking about this year, such as gray scale The advertisement of abandoning gold by capital, which is to buy Bitcoin and throw away gold, actually plays a very good role. You can see that it is easy to use the traditional investment perspective to understand it. It is analogous to gold and then has such a good channel. I think this is a better point that I personally think now, and cheap things are not. They will definitely buy. Institutions actually have the same psychology as our retail investors. When the price rises, the more people will buy it. When it is cheaper, Buffett may only buy it.
Tao Rongqi: First of all, Mr. Du just said that I am very supportive and agree with it. In fact, the gray-scale GBTC already existed in 18 years, but its heavy volume appeared this year. I think this is very important. The reason is that 18 years is the beginning of the bear market. He did this to pave the way for the entire bear market cycle. It’s time to harvest his fruits from 18, 19, 2020, but when harvesting fruits, everyone should be afraid of FOMO together, because he has already bought it, and it does not need to buy a lot at the top price. Just need to blow.
What we can see at this time is that it should be JPMorgan Chase in June this year, and then from July, August and September this year, all the old money, including Bridgewater, etc., began to blow bitcoin. I personally think that they have already bought it. The bear market in the past has been bought, especially the plunge in March this year. After buying it, you can blow it. It’s that simple.
There is a very simple evidence, but it has not been so obvious from the year before last year. Since 19 years, the rise and fall of Bitcoin in the market have been more dominated by the US dollar. You think Coinbase dominates. Because we look at the price of Bitcoin, including the price of Binance, this is very obvious. Of course, here is one thing to add. If you think the US dollar is the dominant one, the US dollar has been low recently, and the price of Coinbase is lower than that of others. Please be careful.
Lin Weihao: I very much agree with Mr. Du’s statement. First of all, I don’t think that this does not mean that the interest value of the institution has not changed with Bitcoin itself, but that it is because you have such an investment channel. For example, I am 18 years old. When I really felt that compared to last year, I also looked at Grayscale and bought it. Then I talked about Grayscale with the people around me, and our colleagues, but no one paid much attention to me. As an entrance, Grayscale is like a traffic entrance on the Internet.
As for why institutions don’t buy when it’s cheap, it’s actually because in the early stage, it must take some time to verify, right? We need to verify whether it will be reset to zero, or will not be blocked by the SEC, or there are a lot of macro or policy risks. System risks have to take some time to settle and verify, and then we will finally touch on such a The vertex may be a new high in price or a financial cycle. In the end, it is the same as a diamond. I don’t believe that when a diamond is dug out on the first day, there is such a consensus or value, and then you will not have the price. High, others don’t buy it, right? For precious jewellery, I told them that I would offer a 50% discount. They still don’t believe me, so I saw that it was like this.
The final point of view is quite interesting. Only when the price is high will others cherish it. I actually saw a very interesting news today. What we reported was that the mayor of Miami in the United States said that he would like to explore the possibility of putting 1% of the city’s fiscal reserves into Bitcoin. In fact, some time ago, Forbes also made a prediction for 2021. He said that Bitcoin will become the reserve asset of many companies in 2021. What do you think, what do you think, do you think that in the future, companies or even governments will allocate Bitcoin?
Will companies begin to allocate Bitcoin as a reserve asset?
Bi Tongtong: Recently, Forbes magazine released the annual selection of the cryptocurrency industry for the first time, and made a prediction for 2021: Bitcoin will become the reserve asset of enterprises. How do investors view this forecast? Will Bitcoin become a “frequent customer” on the balance sheet of companies after 20201? What is the motivation for companies to deploy Bitcoin?
Du Jun: I think this question can actually be used in one sentence, that is, everyone should own Bitcoin, whether it is an individual retail investor, whether it is a retail investor, an institution or the government, I think they should have it, but it actually means whether to What kind of area to build, I think I will use a certain amount of assets to make a matching ratio, because after all, it is a good asset.
Tao Rongqi: What I want to say is that you may not escape in the end. In fact, at the national level, in the last cycle, I have the impression that North Korea started to dig bitcoin, and then this cycle began to have various effects. I can see that one of its trends is from those edges. In fact, our retail investors are more marginal, slowly From the rich to the rich, and then slowly to some marginalized countries, for example, North Korea has become a certain province and city level, and then it may be promoted at the national level of a mainstream country. This step by step has also been verified. The growth of Bitcoin’s market value.
Then again, if you wait until the last big country, such as China or the United States, use national power to hoard it, it may also end.
Lin Weihao: Let’s talk about retail investors and this organization first. I think I’d like to tell him. First of all, my personal words may be precious metals or other commodities or many things. I personally would not buy them, because the goal of my asset allocation is to Asset growth, no matter passive or active, so I must be optimistic about the value and improvement of Bitcoin, so I will hold it.
Then another aspect is that if it is an institution, each institution and everyone has a different understanding of Bitcoin, you should use it as a commodity as a payment tool or something, if you use it as a payment tool, it will be put into liquid cash It is a liquid asset. So if it is regarded as an investment, it is placed in another place, so whether the organization will allocate it depends on how they recognize it, but I think all roads lead to Rome. I am willing to refer to it, for example, whether to mark Bitcoin as a gold commodity, or as a store of value or a tool for hedging or hedging. Then I think it varies from person to person, but More or less there will certainly be impossible to completely replace, but the proportion should still be relatively large in the future.
Bi Tongtong: When Satoshi Nakamoto founded Bitcoin, he hoped that Bitcoin would become a kind of “point-to-point electronic cash.” Since it is cash, it must be used in life. Although the Bitcoin system has been running stably for ten More than a year, but because of many technical reasons. It seems to be moving away from the concept of “cash”, and is more inclined to the attributes of “risk hedging” and “asset reserve” like gold. What do investors think is the “ultimate goal” of this path taken by Bitcoin?
Du Jun: I think what is actually being discussed is an evolutionary path. As long as it gets better and better, I think it will be fine. This is the same as when we start a business. When we first wrote about BP, for example, when we went to find investment and financing, in fact, what you have to do may be an A, but you are doing it to make the company B. But I think as long as your company can get better and better and can generate social value, I don’t think there is any problem with this.
In terms of another point, in fact, today we are talking about our so-called USDT payment logic, which still uses Bitcoin. I think we need to see what Bitcoin is. Today I don’t know what the spirit of Bitcoin is. What, what is the enlightenment that Bitcoin brings to us, what is the impact it brings, I think this may be more important.
I have been talking about the possibility that Bitcoin may change. In the end, we also said that it is possible to say that it is gold and diamonds, what we call the value of its storage, and the value of its reserve currency. In fact, we can also think that Bitcoin may be replaced one day, but it doesn’t matter. I think it’s more about Bitcoin itself. We don’t need to pay attention to Bitcoin itself, but to our own Bitcoin. What kind of things are brought to our world, so I think many applications today are an application of the spirit of Bitcoin. I think that in fact, we should pay more attention to the white paper he brought and the value it brings to our entire business.
Tao Rongqi: I think of 2015, when the boss Han Feng led a few of us to translate the book ” Blockchain New Economic Blueprint”, that is to say, Bitcoin was the first application of blockchain. Because of the spirit of Bitcoin that President Du just mentioned, there are many spirits such as decentralization, blockchain, freedom and equality, but it is true that he is like a mother, and of course something is born. For example, forked coins, his spiritual technology has gained some industries.
In fact, there are really many things that are gradually changing in this way, such as the second-ranked Ethereum. The initial design of Ethereum GAS is to become another thing that benchmarks Bitcoin as gold, called the oil of the digital asset world.
If Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum GAS is oil, and Ethereum itself is a decentralized computer. This thing looks very weird now. Now we seem to have not been completely subverted, but at least there is Half of the situation was different from what he had initially imagined. Ethereum is an ecology, an open and free decentralized ecosystem of a blockchain, and this is its value. So it seems of course that if you say whether it has changed, it seems that it has not completely changed, but it has always changed. I think Bitcoin is the same, that is, its core has not changed, but its manifestation has changed.
Lin Weihao: When a lot of things came out, its original intention was to turn this thing into a form, but because of a factor attached to it and the interaction with the world, another form was finally derived. I just mentioned This is a philosophical aspect.
Regarding Bitcoin, I think at the beginning, whether he wanted to do a peer-to-peer electronic cash system or something, but in the end he carried a lot of spirit. As Mr. Du mentioned, I think this is what he definitely didn’t do at the beginning. I thought of things, but later because of his ecology, his essence changed. I think this is a very cool thing, and it has derived an essence of other things, or distributed such an essence more This kind of thing, I think this is one of his greatest values, which Mr. Du just mentioned.
About DeFi and investment
Bi Tongtong: DeFi is the king of hot spots in 2020. Lending products, AMM, oracles, insurance, synthetic assets and other products are emerging in endlessly. Whether it is liquid mining or uni, 1inch token airdrops, there are powerful wealth creations. Effect; Has the investment institution where your guests work participated in DeFi? What do you think about the development of DeFi next year?
Du Jun: Actually, I have caught up with the last wave of DeFi today. In April and May, we went to study Filecoin every day, and then it should be August, and then we started to study DeFi, so in September we I dug a wave of SUSHI. I thought it was quite fun during the participation process. It did bring me some new thinking. I personally think that it was two or three years ago. I remembered that it was in 18 and 17 at that time. At that time, there were also a large number of people who were doing DEX. At that time, because there was no AMM agreement, I actually felt that I was not optimistic about this at the time, and I felt that the efficiency was very low. Now there is Uniswap, but this Uniswap is not a new thing. It has been a product for more than two years. In fact, the previous attention was relatively low, but it suddenly broke out this year, so I think I changed some thoughts later. In my entire experience, although there are still many such inconveniences, retail investors may be relatively difficult to use, but we can see its wealth effect. But from another perspective, it can indeed coexist with so-called centralized exchanges for a long time.
The second one actually refers to DeFi. In fact, I personally think that today may actually have just begun. I cannot say that it is not a bubble. I can only say that this bubble is not necessarily a negative effect. It may bring more attention and also bring Bring in more funds and talents.
So if we say that it is the era of DeFi 1.0, the real DeFi 2.0 has just begun, so I will focus on the DeFi track. This is also one of my most important jobs in the next one to two years. .
Tao Rongqi: As for DeFi mining, I haven’t participated in it myself so far. Of course, some children help me to participate. Basically, I think I am old—the kind of abandoned old man. Tomorrow, at 3 pm on December 31st, I will have a live broadcast at the end of this year in the Knowledge Planet, which is the Polarized World Survival Guide. There will be one of the top ten predictions for next year. One of the predictions is about DeFi. I Let me first reveal that I predict that there will be DeFi projects in the top 10 projects next year, which may occupy two or more. At the same time, if DeFi represents American power, and Chinese power representatives, such as those mining coins , I personally think they will drop out of the top 10.
Lin Weihao: Next next year, we will switch from rough APY (annual return on deposits) to a more sensible scenario, because funds are now floating. These are currently chasing APY, and will be considered in the future. More about it. Security, and its diversification or there are more real-world assets, such as real estate tokens, NFTs, etc.
This is something that might be more interesting next year. Is it running on Polkadot? How to interact with the financial system between other chains? Then what are the new assets coming in? Funds, users, and functions, they will consolidate in such a pattern.
Predictions of potential hot spots in the crypto industry in 2021
Bi Tongtong: The encryption industry has some hotspots leading the industry almost every year, such as the Dapp trend in 2018, transaction mining, IEO in 2019, industrial blockchain, this year’s mining halving, DeFi farming boom, etc.; investors can help you Predict the potential hot spots in 2021?
Du Jun: Actually, I have been paying attention to investment before this. In fact, I think I can catch up with one in every wave. Whether we are tails or we can still catch up with some of the focus of funds, we are actually in Huobi. In terms of business, I think there is less focus on how to invest, but I think there are a few points that will not change.
The first is the application in some practical scenarios where the real past application technology can change or improve all aspects of our lives; it is the combination of blockchain and finance, so DeFi is the track that the investment department is most concerned about.
In fact, from the perspective of the entire company, there was not much difference just now. The Huobi investment department is actually the same, and it is still focused on new technologies like just now. We will focus more on it.
DeFi’s focus is actually quite a lot. So on the whole, I personally think that 2021 is really the time for DeFi, so some friends who have missed Bitcoin came to live today as well, so there will be many netizens actually I think I can really pay attention to DeFi.
Tao Rongqi: Our essence is Long China, Long Crypto. As a Chinese, especially in the past two years, I feel that my nationalist side has been awakened. So the role of the Chinese will occupy a very important part of my investment. If you are interested in joining my polarized world survival guide, I actually like to watch some developments in China, because as a Chinese, if you If you make money dominated by Americans, such as Bitcoin, I would feel that I am just a speculator and a follower, but if you earn the rise of the whole China, then challenge the American emperor, and become the number one in the world. I think it’s very happy that you use money to support and get the corresponding benefits when you participate in this process.
Lin Weihao: We are now building a financial system on the blockchain , and it is a multi-chain interactive financial system. In the entire development process, which things come first, and which are the prerequisites, I am fully committed to participating in this kind of finance. In a construction of the system, it is realized through code.
So although I also pay attention to the privacy track, I personally don’t pay attention to Filecoin at all. I pay more attention to DeFi. In fact, I also pay attention to Polkadot and NFT. I think these things are just a medium, they are just a parameter to start, and the important thing is always whether it can guess the right thing at this time after the thing is launched, and there is such a team to do it, It’s done. That’s why I have to think more about what I said. It’s possible that there are actually quite a lot of networks doing it in China.
The focus of my investment is that I can see its logical trend value, flowing on the blockchain, and this value is recognized by users, and its function or business is acceptable to the market within three months to six months. , And there will be more widely adopted, this is my unified standard.
Advice to new investors outside the circle
Bi Tongtong: As Bitcoin goes out of the circle, many outside investors also want to enter the crypto industry, but a variety of tokens in Amber are emerging in an endless stream. It is difficult for non-veteran speculators to distinguish between “air currency” and “value currency”. Ordinary outside investors want to participate in the cryptocurrency market. Where are their opportunities? How should I allocate my investment assets?
Du Jun: I think from two aspects, the first aspect is from the perspective of our investment and how we invest. I think that we may have some new investors and asset ratio. I think it’s a reasonable ratio of around 20%, especially for new investors.
Of course, we have to say that the possible proportion of heavy warehouses like Mr. Tao is higher. No problem. You are a newcomer and the first one is the ratio of your assets. I think we need to be sure.
So I think in terms of investment, I think I should try to buy some relatively stable ones, especially for novices. I think it’s good for you to do Bitcoin. Other risks are relatively high. Although there are many new companies, including Polkadot, but in fact, its price fluctuates greatly, and there are not so many fundamental analyses. I think Bitcoin is relatively speaking, you bought something that you don’t panic about.
I think it is still possible to hold a little HT. It is really a historically low level now, and it may be the last opportunity to buy at a low price.
Tao Rongqi: Bitcoin will plunge twice a year. The so-called plunge refers to a drop of more than 30% in a short period of time. In these two or so opportunities, if you can seize it both times, you will be able to make more money than others, perhaps twice or several times more than others. If you do the opposite twice, I’m sorry, maybe tomorrow you will lose more money to others, and you will watch others earn 5 times 10 times. So these two plunges are very important. Can you avoid the first, and can you buy the bottom? This is the key point in my opinion that many people will be able to obtain excess returns next year. Not only Bitcoin, but also small coins, but small coins follow Bitcoin, so I think it is only necessary to pay attention to the two or so sharp drops of Bitcoin.
Lin Weihao: I think the risk of digital currency is still relatively large, and the volatility is still relatively large. The first is to support Mr. Du’s asset allocation ratio. I think the advice given to new investors is a little safer, and the buying point is of course the cheaper he buys, because we are long-term bullish.
Secondly, for advanced investors, or those with higher risk appetite, you can configure more DeFi projects that have been baptized by the market and verified, and then the proportion of configuration can refer to its financial attribute business functions. A fund precipitation ratio in benchmarking traditional finance. For example, we say what is the market value of insurance, what is the market value of insurance company stocks, etc. These facts have been verified in traditional finance, so it is a pattern of the future, if the blockchain is up and down If there is not a big difference, it will only drive in this direction.
If you are like me, I may not be so optimistic about DeFi insurance products in the short term. This type of insurance has a reasonable risk and an intervention time for returns. I will see if these prerequisites are fulfilled. Go in.
