Data shows that by the end of this year, Bitcoin has a 7% chance of breaking through the historical high of $20,000.
According to data from Skew, an analysis resource on the chain, as of October 22, Bitcoin options indicate that Bitcoin prices will continue to rise in 2020.
The odds of BTC reaching $20,000 are “quickly reassessed”
As of press time, by December 31, 2020, the probability of BTC/USD reaching or exceeding US$20,000 is 7%, and the probability of reaching US$18,000 is 11%.
By March 2021, more people bet that Bitcoin will recover $20,000 (14%), and the probability of recovering $20,000 in June 2021 is 18%.
On social media, Skew stated that data on the probability of Bitcoin reaching $20,000 after Bitcoin touched $13,200 is “rapidly reassessed.”
Bitcoin option price probability chart Source: Skew
As reported by Cointelegraph, despite the rise in the price of Bitcoin, the sentiment of institutional investors still tends to rise. For example, CME Group’s latest COT report shows that most institutions are longing bitcoins, not shorting bitcoins.
On Wednesday, statistician Willy Woo pointed out that investors who are keen to hold bitcoin for a long time have withdrawn a lot of liquidity from the speculative space.
He tweeted: “Where does the supply come from? 250,000 Bitcoins have been raised by investors from the spot exchanges and held.
“So far, this is the source of supply. This is the result of buying bitcoin. The previous bull market was driven by small retail investors.”
A complete rise
The nature of the behavior leading to price increases has not been overlooked. Charles Edwards, the founder of digital asset management company Capriole, said that this is a unique phenomenon in Bitcoin’s twelve-year life.
He tweeted on Thursday: “This rise is fundamentally driven by the spot. There is almost no resistance to orders.”
“Yes, things change quickly. This is cryptocurrency. But it is a very healthy rise. This is something we have never seen before when Bitcoin reached $12,000.”
However, as the price of Bitcoin exceeded $12,000, the trading volume of Bitcoin futures in the past two days has also nearly tripled from the beginning of this month.
