Bitcoin futures and options positions have reached a record high again, and the trading volume has not seen a significant increase. On March 26, there will be a Bitcoin option contract with a notional value of more than 6.3 billion U.S. dollars and an Ethereum option contract with a nominal value of nearly 1.2 billion U.S. dollars will expire.
Written by: Karen
Weekly market dynamics
Ou Yi OKEx will officially delist EOS option contracts at 16:00 on June 25th.
Bybit will stop providing services to UK customers on March 31.
Futures market
Overview of extreme market liquidation
At around 6:30 this afternoon, Bitcoin rose by more than $2,000 in 10 minutes. Within half an hour, the entire network liquidated a total of 220 million U.S. dollars, of which Bitcoin liquidated 190 million U.S. dollars.
Futures liquidation statistics on BitMEX, Binance, Bybit, Huobi, MXC, OKEx, source: Coin
Trading volume and open positions
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx. The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bybit, CME (launched on February 7), Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
In the past week (March 5 to March 11), despite the Bitcoin price rebounding by about $10,000, the futures trading volume did not increase. Instead, it decreased by 2% from the previous week. The weekly trading volume was about 4,620. One hundred million U.S. dollars. In contrast, the value of Bitcoin futures holdings increased by more than 30% from a week ago, and broke through the mid-February high to set a new historical high again, which was about 20 billion US dollars as of yesterday.
Bitcoin futures contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Bitcoin futures contracts, source: Skew
In Ethereum, the weekly trading volume increased by 4% month-on-month, and its holdings increased by more than 28% compared with last week. Currently, it is about 5.7 billion U.S. dollars. Among them, CME’s holdings increased by more than 70%. However, the current position value of Ethereum futures is still about 25% away from the historical high in mid-February (about 7.1 billion US dollars).
Ethereum futures contract daily trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Ethereum futures contracts, source: Skew
This shows that although the short-term game between Bitcoin and Ethereum is becoming fierce, the multi-party continues to exert force, but in the next few days, users will still need to pay attention to the trading volume and multi-party profit settlement.
Option market
Trading volume and open positions
The trading volume of options on Bitcoin and Ethereum also fell by 13% and 8%, respectively. The weekly trading volume was US$6.233 billion and US$1.098 billion, respectively. The value of Bitcoin holdings increased by 25% from a week ago, setting a record high again, and the value of Ethereum holdings increased by nearly 13% month-on-month, approaching the high in mid-February.
Bitcoin options contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Bitcoin options contracts, source: Skew
Volatility
It is worth noting that although from a longer range, Bitcoin’s one-month realized volatility and ATM implied volatility are at a high level, they began to fluctuate and fall in mid-February, and currently fall back to 82% and 100%, respectively. nearby.
From left to right are the realized volatility of Bitcoin one month and the implied volatility of Bitcoin one month ATM
Ethereum’s one-month realized volatility and ATM implied volatility have fallen more significantly. The realized volatility has dropped from 166% in early February to the current 92%, and the implied volatility has dropped from 189% to 109%.
From left to right are the one-month realized volatility of Ethereum and the one-month ATM implied volatility of Bitcoin
Option expiration
On March 26, 105,800 Bitcoin option contracts will expire, with a nominal value of over 6.3 billion U.S. dollars. In Ethereum, over 630,000 contracts will expire on March 26, with a nominal value of nearly US$1.2 billion.
Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew
Ethereum option expiration status, source: Skew
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