[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Bitcoin, trading volume stagnated… When to Need Upward Momentum

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

After failing to exceed $60,000 in the past two days, the buying trend of bitcoin gradually weakens and it is spreading to Ethereum and altcoins. In fact, according to the research institute’s on-chain transaction volume analysis (refer to the analysis of the day’s transaction volume trend during on-chain indicator analysis on page 13), it was analyzed that bitcoin transaction volume has not increased in the last three days. Compared to the increase in Ethereum transaction volume, you can see a distinct difference.

The US New York Stock Market last night led a strong rise in technology stocks in anticipation of President Biden’s infrastructure policy. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes rose 6.6% and 4.3%, respectively, in April alone, recording the highest growth rates since November last year. On the 29th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average fell 0.26% from the previous trading day, and the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq Index rose 0.36% and 1.54%, respectively. did.

As of 14:00 on the 1st, the price of Bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $59,300.30, the 24-hour trading volume is about $67.9 billion, and the market cap is about $1.1 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.89 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 58.5%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 11.8%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 0.39% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 0.22% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than Altcoin, and the market cap of Bitcoin increased 0.50% compared to the previous day. Its market share increased by 0.11% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that the rate of increase in bitcoin was greater than the average rate of increase in altcoins.

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market has been tedious, repeating the rise and fall after opening, while Bitcoin and small stocks are strong, and medium and large stocks are weak. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +0.01%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -0.20%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is -0.65%, and a medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded -0.05%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +0.79%.

As of 14:00 on the 1st, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the past 24 hours at major cryptocurrency exchanges was 51%:49%, and the buy ratio was high, but as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to be strong in selling. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around +88.0, while the basis of Ethereum futures was around +5.35, maintaining the contango status. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. April futures traded at $59,835.0, an increase of $550.0 (+0.93%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>

As of 14:00 on the 1st, the cryptocurrency market price is generally on the rise. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 71.87 million won, up 0.50% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2.339,000 won, up 0.13%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market, based on the coin market cap, also maintained strong strength, and 9 out of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) price is $59,300.30, up 0.72% from the same time the day before, and Ethereum (ETH) is $1,927.29, up 4.69%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <Strengthening>

This year, the balance of outstanding Bitcoin futures commitments on 11 major Bitcoin futures exchanges has increased by about 134%, from $9.66 billion to $2.28 billion. The outstanding commitment balance represents the total size of open derivatives contracts such as options and futures, and is used as a key indicator of market sentiment and price trend analysis.

Major market experts believe that if bitcoin, which has risen by 10% over the past four days, continues to gain momentum, it will once again reach an all-time high (around $61,800). It claims to be an optimistic indicator.

(Positive opinion)

① Cointelegraph, a media specializing in cryptocurrency, said, “Gold has collapsed to less than $1,700, but Bitcoin is approaching an all-time high, reaching 59,000 dollars again. It is possible to imply the emergence of a new means of storing value.” As of the 30th of last month, the price of Bitcoin compared to gold amounted to 34.94 ounces. Gold futures, on the other hand, hit less than $1,700 per ounce on the New York Commercial Exchange. The value of bitcoin versus gold has more than doubled over the past three months, and has nearly seven times increased since October last year.

② CoinDesk, a media specialized in cryptocurrency, said, “Bitcoin has shown signs of increasing cryptocurrency adoption by Wall Street companies such as Goldman Sachs and Blackrock. By comparison, the S&P P500 index rose only 5.7%. It is natural that Goldman’s customers want to enter the bitcoin market.” According to the media, Matt Blom, head of sales at digital asset company Equos, argued that “a large-scale portfolio rebalancing has already begun.”

③ The US economic media CNBC surveyed 100 chief investment officers (CIOs), market strategists, and portfolio managers, and 41% of respondents cited Bitcoin as the most expensive stock. 32% of respondents cited technology stocks, 21% said they were cyclical stocks, and 6% said they were small caps.

④ Soros Fund Management CIO Dawn Fitzpatrick said, “Bitcoin is stealing buyers from gold. This poor performance will be related to Bitcoin.”

⑤ Financial planning advisory firm The deVere Group Chief Executive Officer Nigel Green said in a recent email, “The increasing investment of companies like Tesla and Square has been reported by individual investors. It’s a sign that they’re using the popular’buy the dip’ method, which means institutions are accumulating bitcoins when prices plummet.”

⑥ Bobby Ong, co-founder of CoinGecko, a provider of cryptocurrency price information, predicts that the price of bitcoin will rise to $100,000 within this year. “However, it is not known how many years the bear market (bear market) will continue after this bull market (bull market) reaches its peak. It is difficult to predict after Bitcoin exceeds $100,000.”

⑦ Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo predicts that the number of Bitcoin investors will exceed 1 billion in the near future. “Bitcoin penetration is still in its infancy,” he said. We will see the index increase exponentially within a few years.” “By 2025, it is predicted that one-eighth of the world’s population will invest in Bitcoin. “There will be many changes in the financial system over the next four years.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

Ahead of the $60,000 breakthrough, the bitcoin buying trend is gradually weakening. Bitcoin daily market price (see Figure 5-1), which broke through the breakthrough of $60,000 for the last two days in a row, has not been able to sustain the atmosphere that started as a strong, and is continuing a sluggish trend. CME BTC futures, which had led the market with strong momentum before breaking through the peak, are also having a big impact.

As pointed out in the report last Thursday, the essential factor to support the current technological uptrend is’volume’. However, if you analyze the spot transaction volume on the day (see Analyzing the transaction volume trend during the on-chain indicator analysis on page 13) through the on-chain indicator, it can be confirmed that the bitcoin transaction volume is in a stagnant state. (Ethereum is increasing, but it has decreased significantly compared to the increase in January.) In addition, according to the analysis of the mass transaction volume according to the on-chain indicator on page 15, the balance of bitcoin held by major exchanges is slightly increasing, indicating that bitcoin is 6 Attempts to break through the US$10,000 resistance are expected to suffer or the upside momentum is expected to slow slightly.

Delayed breakouts during this period will change to a typical decline pattern of’head and shoulders’. Technically, the fibonacci retracement point 1, $59,400, is not exceeded, so the second retracement point of $57,483 will be the expected support point and a short-term buy-off point in case of departure. Of course, even if there is a tolerable price decline, we expect that there will be no abnormalities in the medium-term or long-term rise of Bitcoin. However, it would be wise to prepare in advance, as the sharp decline in the value of the holdings could greatly shake the sentiment of investors.

Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was estimated at $58,300 and $1,840, respectively, as of 14:00. Option premiums are still excessive, but as the expiration time approaches, there may be rapid market movements, so it is important to be aware of the possibility of short-term market price fluctuations. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day’ on page 14)

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $58,437. Currently, the bitcoin market price is above this price and the market price of the day, but if the market breaks while watching and watching because the market price is falling, 1) Confirm a strong rebound from the 5th moving average ($57,970) or $58,437 on the day and try to buy. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14:00 on the 1st, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’active buying’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 7 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 0’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions, and’Active Buy’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 12’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 8,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 0, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ with 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with 0 cases.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated “horror and greed index” fell 2 points from the previous day (76) to 74, descending one step to the level of greed. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on April 1)

As of 14:00 on the 1st, due to the continuing rise in bitcoin prices, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year was 87.91%, up 3.41% from the previous Tuesday. During the same period, oil futures plunged 5.15%, gold remained flat at -0.17%, and the dollar index and the S&P 500 rose 0.32% and 0.05%, respectively.

International oil prices declined ahead of the OPEC+ (Oil Exporting Countries Organization and major oil-producing countries meetings such as Russia) despite news of a decline in crude oil stocks. On the 31st (East Time), the May West Texas crude oil (WTI) price on the New York Commercial Exchange closed at $59.16 per barrel, down $1.39 (2.3%) from the battlefield. Oil prices fell 3.8% this month alone, but rose 22% in the first quarter. Market participants are paying attention to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for the next day. Oil-producing countries are known to expect to freeze oil production in May, taking into account the uncertainty of Corona 19.

On the other hand, contrary to the rising bitcoin price, the falling gold price is prolonged. The price of bitcoin compared to gold as of the day reached 34.94 ounces. The price comparison between bitcoin and gold peaked at 35.35 ounces on the 13th, when bitcoin hit $61,000. The value of bitcoin compared to gold has more than doubled over the past three months, and has increased nearly seven times since October last year. Gold futures, on the other hand, hit less than $1,700 per ounce on the New York Commercial Exchange. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on April 1) <Strengthening>

While the bitcoin price has stagnated to break through $60,000, altcoins, including Ethereum, are on the rise. However, altcoins have much greater price volatility than bitcoin, and have a wide fluctuation even with a small transaction volume, so it seems to be cautious when investing. Theta token, which ranked second in the yield last week, was pushed back to 11th, and Chainlink rose to 10th again.

As of 14:00 on the 1st, Binance Coin (BNB) ranks 1st with 710.63% at the beginning of the year, Cardano (ADA) ranks 2nd with 560.62%, Uniswap (UNI) ranks 3rd with 455.45%, Polkadot (Polka Dot) DOT) ranked 4th with 295.21%, and Chainlink ranked 5th with 164.75%.

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Strengthening>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

If you look at indicator 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10, it shows a recent decline, which is consistent with the price stagnation, and indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume) increases and is in line with the price increase. Therefore, in order for Bitcoin to exceed $60,000, an increase in transaction volume is essential. On the other hand, the trading volume on the day increased compared to the previous day for both stocks, but the downside volatility increased, so it was analyzed that it is highly likely to undergo a sale digestion process through intraday adjustment while maintaining the recent uptrend.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

As the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise, the gap between the two stocks and the kimchi premium index remained constant, but the kimchi premium index rose with the price, giving a glimpse of the market’s negative view on the price increase at this point. I can. However, the trend of the two stocks is expected to continue to rise as the price rise trend remains and the gap remains constant.

③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators <strong>

Figure 12-1 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by major exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. As the bitcoin balance held by major exchanges (Figure 12-1) is showing a slight increase, it is expected that bitcoin will have difficulty in attempting to break through the resistance of the $60,000 range or the upside momentum will be slightly slowed.

On the other hand, the Ethereum balance of major exchanges (Figure 12-2) has been declining since mid-January, and Ethereum prices are likely to receive more momentum due to this trend of decreasing supply.

◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from the bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 53.52% at 10 o’clock in the falling position. At 14 o’clock, the downside pressure was expected to decrease somewhat, as the weight decreased to 29.62%, but at 10 o’clock (call option) -4.70%: (put option) -35.99% to (call option) -15.19%: (put option) on a premium basis. Options) It is analyzed that the synthetic selling strategy is in progress aimed at reducing the premium to -0.11%. Therefore, today’s market is expected to decline gradually.

On the other hand, in the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding pledges aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the number of contracts was 36.04% at 10 o’clock in the falling position, which was 36.04% at 10 o’clock. The proportion decreased only slightly to 32.56% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option) 26.61%: (put option) 0.03% to (call option)-8.95%: (put option) 14.87% It was analyzed that it has established an active short position ahead of the settlement due to the change.

◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 per day)

◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 per day)

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