[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Declining Bitcoin Dominance and Increasing Altcoin Rise

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

Altcoins have been on a continuous rally since last weekend. With the recovery of altcoins, investors’ sentiment in the cryptocurrency market seems to be shifting to demand for altcoins. This phenomenon is a peculiar phenomenon seen in the weakness of bitcoin and can be said to be a characteristic of the so-called’altcoin season’. Therefore, if bitcoin maintains a sideways flow in the box zone rather than a sharp decline, altcoin’s rise rate is expected to increase further.

The US stock market rose last night as companies announced results that exceeded expectations. According to CNBC, an economic media outlet, more than 70 S&P 500 companies that have published their results so far have averaged 23% higher than the market’s estimate of net profit (consensus). On the 21st (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average rose 0.93% from the previous trading day, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index increased 0.93%, and the technology stock-oriented NASDAQ index rose 1.19%, respectively.

As of 14 o’clock on the 22nd, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $53,739.18, the 24-hour trading volume is about $58 billion, and the market cap is about $1.5 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.93 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 50.2%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 13.9%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 0.69% compared to the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap decreased 0.36% compared to the previous day. It was analyzed that while the share of Bitcoin decreased by 0.52% compared to the previous day, altcoins were on average rising.

Meanwhile, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, it was analyzed that while the market was mixed on the day, investors were selling bitcoin and small altcoins. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +0.28%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.81%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is +0.25%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC, which is +0.40%, recorded -1.10% with WSC, an index centered on small stocks.

As of 14 o’clock on the 22nd, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the past 24 hours was 46%:54%, and the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was also analyzed to be strong. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around +12.5 and the basis of Contango and Ethereum futures was around -1.50, maintaining a backwardation state. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. April futures traded at $53,817.5, down $1262.5 (-2.29%) from the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14 o’clock on the 22nd, the cryptocurrency market is falling. The domestic Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 6.7414,000 won, down 1.15% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 3.302,000 won, up 1.40%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market is weak as of the coin market cap, and as of the last 24 hours, 7 of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization are falling. International Bitcoin (BTC) prices are down 3.88% from the same time the day before to $53,739.18, while Ethereum (ETH) is up 4.15% to $2,408.27. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>

As Bitcoin showed sideways in the box zone, altcoins are showing a recovery trend again. In particular, while Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Pencake Swap (CAKE), and Ripple (XRP) all recorded double-digit increases the previous day, recovering from a recent decline, altcoins have stabilized in the market. There is a high voice that the’altcoin bull market’ can be reproduced if found. However, there are many opinions that there is still a need for a wait and see because a clear recovery pattern has not emerged.

(Positive opinion)

① According to a report released by the asset management company CoinShares on the day, the total amount of assets under management increased to $83 million, as institutional capital of about $33 million was inflow into XRP investment products over the past week. Regarding this, the report pointed out that “The recent resurgence of demand for digital assets is due to a combination of increased acceptance by institutional investors, concerns about inflation, and price momentum.”

② Robert Breedlove, CEO of Parallax Digital, a bitcoin investment consulting firm, predicted that “Bitcoin price will rise to $12.5 million in 2031, 10 years later.” “In 2031, the US money supply is expected to increase to about $500 trillion. At this time, the global M2 is expected to grow 12 times, from about 100 trillion dollars to 1250 trillion dollars. Bitcoin is showing a modest rise in the process,” he said. It must have been steadily increasing its value by maintaining it,” he explained.

③Jason A. Williams, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Asset, an American cryptocurrency asset management company, said through his Twitter, “If bitcoin breaks again after surpassing $60,000 and maintains it, it will not fall below $60,000 again. It was also predicted.

④ Bill Miller, founder of Hedge Fund Miller Value Partners, said, “I am convinced that there is no bubble in Bitcoin.” “Recently, the price of bitcoin has risen to a level close to $65,000. This is the beginning of the mainstreaming of bitcoin,” he said. “An additional rise is expected due to the dynamics of demand and supply.”

⑤The US government cryptocurrency lawyer Jake Chervinsky Compound, legal adviser, said, “Personally, the most probable result (by a small margin) regarding this request to launch a Bitcoin ETF (traded fund) was at least 3 cases in early November. “The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s deadline for reviewing the request for approval of the Van Eck ETF is November 10, and the SEC will probably run out of time. If the ETF is approved this time, it is at this point. Is influential,” he said.

⑥ Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision Group said, “People have to learn to adapt to highly volatile assets like Bitcoin. Higher risk can lead to higher returns.” “Bitcoin price volatility is a major attraction, not a bug.” “50% of my personal portfolio consists of Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum and 20% other altcoins. In the cryptocurrency industry, we don’t know which stocks will succeed and win, so we have a portfolio to balance the market as a whole,” he said. It is distribution,” he explained.

(Neutral opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Ayushi Jindal said, “The current bitcoin price is facing obstacles.” If it fails to break through the major resistance of $57,500, the recent low of $53,350 will be tested again. did. It is explained that the movement has slowed as a result of Bitcoin’s price not exceeding the moving average of the last 100 days. He added, “If Bitcoin breaks the current major resistance of $57,500, it could turn a strong bullish again.”

(Negative opinion)

In an interview with CNBC, Scott Minard, Chief Information Officer at Guggenheim Partners, predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $600,000, but before that, it could retreat to $20,000. He set out specific price targets, predicting that Bitcoin could fall more than 50% from its current position to the point where it retested the $20,000 high price it had at the time of 2017.

② CoinDesk, a media specializing in cryptocurrency, said, “As the bitcoin price has dropped to its lowest level ($51,248) in three weeks, some traders are hedging (hedging) to protect themselves from further price drops.” Short-term puts on Bitcoin, or bearish bets, are driving higher prices than call options, or bullish bets.” However, the media explained that “the demand for short-term put options for Bitcoin has surged, but the long-term put-call skew is still in the negative area, suggesting that the market is inclined toward a bullish trend.”

③ Huobi Korea, a cryptocurrency exchange, said, “Bitcoin has stopped falling and rebounded to $55,000, freed from the risk of an adjusted decline. However, it is not an increase accompanied by trading volume, and the large-scale selling pressure is close to twice that of the buying trend. It exists, and the risk of adjustment still exists,” he advised. “It is necessary to be careful as it may show a sharp decline again after a sideways in the $55,000 box within the day.”

④ JP Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou predicted in the latest report, “If Bitcoin fails to exceed $60,000 in a short period of time, the momentum signal may soon collapse.” The report said, “Commodity investment advisors (CTAs) and cryptocurrency funds have liquidated their long positions in Bitcoin futures, which have been increasing over the past few weeks, affecting the price fluctuations.” The key is whether this will be reproduced, and the fact that the decline in momentum is faster than expected is a factor that makes the rebound difficult. The amount of money flowing into the Bitcoin fund is also limited,” he analyzed.

⑤ Cryptocurrency analyst Yaz Sheikh said, “Bitcoin tried to close above the resistance line on the 21st, but failed and tried again, but eventually withdrawn.” Analyzed. He cautioned, “Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains low below 40, increasing its downside momentum, and a downward breakthrough may occur.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

Despite the strong rebound of the market two days ago, the daily bitcoin market price (see Figure 5-1) did not participate in the rebound and technically formed an upward wedge pattern, deviated from the 60-day moving average line and entered the cloud band of the Ichimoku equilibrium. There is a strong downward trend going down the 5th moving average line and the bottom of the Bollinger band, so if there is no rise above the 5th moving average line, further declines are feared. The same goes for CME Bitcoin futures.

However, individual stocks, including Ethereum, are on the rise, because the altcoin season is in full swing. This is a time when the market is less affected by the rise and fall of bitcoin, and the altcoin season is expanding as the dominance of bitcoin decreases. It is expected that good results can be obtained if you work on it.

The current bitcoin price movement seems to be largely influenced by the US CME BTC futures price (see Figure 5-2). Therefore, it is expected that CME BTC futures price trend should be monitored as it is expected to be able to gauge the direction of the future bitcoin market depending on whether the CME BTC futures rebound near the bottom of the Bollinger Band rather than a negative factor for other market rises. .
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Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $54,693. The current bitcoin market price is below the current market price of $54,693, so you can wait and try to buy 1) when the market price recovers on the day 2) when it exceeds $54,693, crosses the 5-day moving average and the 60-day moving average. . However, if the rising market price breaks from $54,693 or if it breaks from the market price on the day, you will have to liquidate the purchase volume and watch. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

Today, as it is the expiration date of the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange, intraday fluctuations are expected according to the option position.As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the estimated settlement price for both stocks is $55,000 and $55,000, respectively, as of 14:00. It was predicted to be around $2,340. Based on the expected settlement price, the bitcoin price is low and Ethereum is high, but the bitcoin put option is strengthening, and the Ethereum call option only maintains a strong in-the-money option with a strike price of between $2280 and $2320. Is expected to be expected.(Refer to’Analysis of the Share of Non-Payment Agreements on Bitcoin Options on the Day’ on page 15)

◆Technical Analysis <Weakness>

As of 14 o’clock on the 22nd, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’active selling’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, one of the oscillator indicators in Upbit was’Buy’, 7’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions and’active sell’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 4’Buy’ and Eight cases were summarized as’sell’ opinions.

Looking at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 0,’Sell’ is 7, and’Neutral’ is 1, sending a’active sell’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ with 4, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Sell’ with 8 cases.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Neutral>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ was lowered by 8 points from the previous day (73) to 65, maintaining the’greedy’ stage. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 22nd, 14:00) <Weakness>

Bitcoin price continues to weaken

Traditional asset prices are on the rise. As of 14:00 on the 22nd, the US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year was 76.26%, down 1.38% from the previous Tuesday. During the same period, the gold futures, dollar index, and S&P 500 index rose 1.15%, 0.03% and 0.28%, respectively, while oil futures plunged 4.91%.

International oil prices were weak due to the worsening of the global Corona 19 situation including India and concerns about crude oil stocks. On the 21st (local time) on the New York Commercial Exchange, June’s Western Texas crude oil (WTI) closed at $61.35, down 2.1% ($1.32) from the previous trading day. India has surpassed 200,000 confirmed cases for the last 7 days in a row, and Japan is considering an emergency declaration in areas such as Tokyo and Osaka again. In addition, U.S. crude oil stocks are also on the rise, and according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stocks have increased by 594,000 barrels over the past week. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

◇Comparison of return by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 22nd, 14:00) <Weakness>

Bitcoin prices and some stocks that skyrocketed were adjusted, but most cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, rose. DOGE, which had soared to 8,000% since the beginning of the year, was adjusted, and the yield fell sharply to 5,000%, but most of the top stocks in the market capitalization showed a sharp rebound after the plunge on Tuesday. As of 14 o’clock on the 22nd, DOGE ranked first with 5,199.65%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 1,368.38%, and 3rd with Uniswap with 649.59%, Cardano ADA) ranked 4th with 593.92% and Ripple (XRP) 5th with 452.11%.

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <weak>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, Poloni-X, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying price volatility according to rises and falls.

Index 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10 shows that the trend has turned to a decline for two consecutive days, while indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume) shows a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day. In addition, if you look at indicators 3 and 4, the total selling quantity is higher than the total buying quantity, and the price volatility index of Ethereum, which had been rising, is downward.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have entered the adjustment zone, the direction of the kimchi premium index of the two stocks has also declined, so there is no situation to be concerned that stocks and indices are reversed. Of course, it maintains a high level and is within the range of interest, but we believe that the rising trend of cryptocurrencies including bitcoin has sufficient conditions to maintain.

③ Analysis of the balance of Bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <Strengthening>

Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. The Bitcoin balance held by the entire exchange, which had declined once on the 19th, remains the same, so it is expected that there will be no further decline after the decline unless the balance increases.

◇ Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding pledges aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the down position was 0.64% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts. The proportion increased to 7.56% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option)-0.93%: (put option)-54.19% to (call option)-10.89%: (put option)-38.53% It appears that they are using a strategy to sell both options premiums. Therefore, it is analyzed that the option market participants are predicting that the market will decline on the same day while using a selling strategy that expects a decrease in the higher premium.

<Strengthening> On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange in the same way (see Figure 13-2), based on the number of contracts, 10.34% at 10 o’clock. The portion of the declined position decreased to 6.59% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option) 6.10%: (put option)-5.25% (call option) 9.14%: (put option)-6.57% It is expected that the market will try to rebound ahead of the due payment (17:00).

◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 22nd)

◇Deribit bitcoin option status (as of 14:00 on the 22nd)

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