[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] The market continues to rise… “Attention” of increasing price volatility

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

The market, which started weakly, is turning upward as the price of bitcoin (BTC), which had been falling since the record high in line with the listing of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., rebounded the day before. However, in the case of Ethereum (ETH) over the past two days, the total purchase volume for the past two days in a row is significant, and if the buying tax does not flow beyond that, it is likely to close down. (Refer to’Same-day trading volume trend analysis’ on page 13)

As of 14:00 on the 15th, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $2,476, up 7.06% over the past 24 hours. Altcoin, which showed the largest increase rate besides Ether, was DOGE coin, a memetic cryptocurrency launched in 2013, with a market capitalization of $16 billion, exceeding Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Chainlink (LINK). The surge in price of Dogecoin the previous day occurred due to a surge in trading activity, and Dogecoin ranked 5th in trading volume after Tether (USDT), Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Ripple (XRP).

Last night in the US stock market, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, was listed on the NASDAQ, and Wall Street banks continued to announce results that exceeded expectations, but led a downtrend with the opening of profit-making sales centered on large technology stocks. On the 14th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average rose 0.16% from the previous trading day, but the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index fell 0.41% and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index fell 0.99%. .

As of 14 o’clock on the 15th, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $63,364.27, the 24-hour trading volume is about $77.4 billion, and the market cap is about $1,181.3 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.23 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 52.9%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 12.8%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased by 0.69% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 0.93% compared to the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap increased 0.48% compared to the previous day. It was analyzed that Altcoin’s average increase rate was higher than Bitcoin’s, as its share decreased by 0.20% compared to the previous day.

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, it is analyzed that markets that started weakly are small and medium-sized stocks, forming a low at around 11 o’clock and attempting to turn upward after 13:00 as low-priced buying trends inflow. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -0.03%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -0.12%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is -0.15%, and medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded +0.65%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +1.01%.

As of 14 o’clock on the 15th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume for the past 24 hours was 49%:51%, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was also analyzed to be strong. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around +58.0, and the basis of Ethereum futures was around +5.8. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. April futures traded at $63,700.0, an increase of $1300.0 (+2.08%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 15th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 80.06 million won, down 0.42% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 3.134,000 won, up 0.71%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market remains strong as of the coin market cap, and as of the last 24 hours, 8 of the top 10 stocks in market cap are on the rise. International Bitcoin (BTC) price is $63,364.27, up 0.23% from the same time the day before, and Ethereum (ETH) is up 7.08% to $2,476.35. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <Strengthening>

The cryptocurrency price continues to rise as the cryptocurrency industry has created an atmosphere to accept investment risks as a result of the expectation for the listing of Coinbase. Industry experts believe that a new uptrend is likely to emerge if the rise above the $64,000 mark, which is Bitcoin’s main resistance, appears.

(Positive opinion)

① Bloomberg’s chief product strategist Mike McGlon predicts that by July this year, GBTC will outpace the market cap of SPRD Gold Shares, a world-class gold ETF product. McGlon pointed out that the price of gold and silver is on the move, and it is likely to continue, but the price of bitcoin and the size of GBTC are rising rapidly. In March, McGlon also issued an opinion that if Bitcoin exceeds $80,000, the market capitalization is likely to exceed Amazon.

② Cryptocurrency trading company QCP Capital said, “In terms of valuation of exchanges and domino effect, the news of Coinbase’s listing can act as a major catalyst.” QCP continued, “Bitcoin price has doubled since this year, but bitcoin has also been weakened due to the recent low S&P500 index.” “If the coinbase listing is successful, we can expect a reversal.” As expected.

③ IntoTheBlock, a cryptocurrency analysis company, said, “The anticipation for the listing of Coinbase has created an atmosphere for the cryptocurrency industry to accept investment risks as a whole.” A week ago, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies exceeded $2 trillion for the first time ever.

④ Quantum Economics’ founder and CEO Marty Greenspan said, “Coinbase set the timing of listing in line with the bull market in Bitcoin. Therefore, Coinbase is not driving Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is driving Coinbase.”

⑤ Chief economist Philip Gradwell of Chainalsis, a blockchain data analysis company, said, “The direct listing of Coinbase has been done in a very timely manner.” It has changed dramatically,” he said.

⑥ Cryptocurrency analyst Tika Tiwari emphasized that “Ethereum is a tremendously undervalued asset,” and “it will exceed the current market cap of Bitcoin (BTC), which is $1.2 trillion.” He pointed out that two fads: Defi (decentralized finance) and DApp (decentralized applications) will make Ethereum the most valuable software platform in history.

⑦ PayPal’s Chief Executive Officer Dan Schulman predicted that “the amount of cryptocurrency payments could reach 200 million dollars within a few months.” CEO Schulman attended the’Blockchain 50 Symposium’ and said, “We first started cryptocurrency payments in March,” and observed that “It will exceed 200 million dollars within a few months.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

It is expected that the current uptrend, triggered by expectations for the listing of Coinbase, will continue to rise despite the short-term sales opening since listing on the exchange the day before. However, as prices increase, investors’ desire to realize profits increases, so short-term sales become more frequent and price volatility increases. Therefore, it is important to be aware of sharp price fluctuations when investing.

On the same day, the bitcoin market price (see Figure 5-1) started weak and turned upward with the influx of buying, mainly for small and medium-sized stocks, and then turned downward as the selling volume increased. Technically, the top of the Bollinger Band is becoming a resistance, and it is expected to fall to near the moving average of the 5th. Investors who cannot buy when the triangular convergence is broken can be a good buy opportunity.

Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was predicted to be $64,000 and $2,380 respectively as of 14:00. As there is a difference in the expected settlement price of the two stocks today and the option premium remains high, it may be difficult to predict the direction until the settlement time, so caution should be exercised when trading short term. (Refer to the’Analysis of the Share of Bitcoin Option Open Agreements on the Day’ on page 15)

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has a significant price change for the day of $63,038. As the current bitcoin price has been pushed back above the market price of the day, it is now possible to try to buy when 1) the 5th moving average of the day or the support and rebound of $61,844 and 2) falling and recovering $63,038. However, if the bitcoin price exceeds $61,844, you have to withhold and wait and see, and if it deviates from the 5-day moving average, you will have to sort out some of the existing holdings. In addition, it is expected to increase in the order of $64,119-$66,128-$70.141 when rising. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 15th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, all showed’active buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 8 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 0’Sell’, and 1’Neutral’ opinion and’Strong Buy’ opinion, and the moving average indicator is 12’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.

Looking at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 7 cases,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 0, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with 0 cases.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated “horror and greed index” rose 4 points from the previous day (75) to 79, a step up from the previous day to the “extreme greed” stage. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 15, 14:00) <Strengthening>

The previous day, the US 10-year Treasury bond rate fell to 1.625%, but the international oil price soared more than 7% in the two days. Bitcoin price continued to rise, and as of 14 o’clock on the 15th, US CME Bitcoin futures’ yield compared to the beginning of the year rose 5.88% to 97.78% from last Tuesday. During the same period, oil futures and gold futures rose by 7.24% and 0.19%, while the dollar index and S&P 500 index fell by 0.51% and 0.09%.

On the 14th (local time) at the New York Commercial Exchange in the U.S., Western Texas crude oil (WTI) for delivery in May finished trading at $63.15 per barrel, up 4.9% from the previous trading day, recording the highest level since the 17th of last month ($64.60 per barrel). The surge in oil prices is attributed to the increased expectations for a recovery in crude oil demand as a monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts an increase in global crude oil demand this year. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 15, 14:00) <Strengthening>

The rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum began again, and the rise of altcoins continued to rise. Among the top stocks by market capitalization, Binance Coin (BNB), which had recorded the highest price ever, declined as the profitability volume poured in, but the yield fell, but Cardano (ADA, +58.64%), Ripple (XRP, +119.89%), and Polkadot Other stocks, such as (DOT, +33.84%), continued to increase. As of 14 o’clock on the 15th, Binance Coin (BNB) ranks 1st with 1320.59%, and Cardano (ADA) ranks 2nd with 707.91%, Uniswap (UNI) ranks 3rd with 660.96% and Ripple (XRP). ) Ranked 4th with 623.76% and Polkadot (DOT) 5th with 420.24%.

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <weakness>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

Looking at index 2 (ETH spot trading volume) in Figure 10, ETH has already exceeded the trading volume of the previous day, and looking at index 4, the total number of purchases for the last two days in a row was the highest in the last 10 days. Although it cannot be concluded yet, if the total number of purchases today is less than the previous day, it is highly likely that the Ethereum price will close lower. All related stocks are within the sphere of influence, so be careful about buying and selling.

BTC recorded the maximum number of purchases the day before, and it can be confirmed that a significant amount of sales was withdrawn the day before, and it is expected that the market will be able to determine whether or not the market rises according to the inflow of the buying tax on the day before.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

As the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum turned upward, the direction of the kimchi premium index for the two stocks turned downward. Of course, it still maintains a high level, so it is within the range of interest, but we believe that there are sufficient conditions to maintain the uptrend.

③ Analysis of the balance of bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <weakness>

Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. It can be seen that the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges has been gradually increasing since it reached the lowest level on the 9th, and the upward trend is expected to slow slightly in the future.

◇ Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 74.91% at 10 o’clock in the rising position, which was 74.91%. The weight of the position decreased by 35.95% at 14 o’clock as the number of call options plunged and the number of put options increased sharply, and as a premium based on 10 o’clock (call option)-2.95%: (put option)-69.53% (call option) -69.53% (call option) Options) -2.41%: (Put option) -39.97% of the put option purchase premium increased, and options market participants expect the market to decline on the same day.

<Weakness> On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange in the same way (see Figure 13-2), based on the number of contracts, 25.85% at 10 o’clock. The portion of the lower position that was at 14 o’clock was changed to an up position of 0.92% at 14:00, and the premium standard was from 10:00 (call option)-9.46%: (put option) -57.00% to (call option) -12.13%: (put option) Changed to -8.40%, the market was expected to decline gradually, reducing the excessive amount option premium.

◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 15th)

◇Deribit bitcoin options (as of 14:00 on the 15th)

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