On October 31, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (October 21-October 27). During the statistical period, BTC rose sharply. On the basis of the considerable increase that has been achieved before, In the latest statistical cycle, the price of BTC once again achieved a one-week rise of more than $2,000, and market optimism was further fermented by the continued price increase.
The number of total positions (total open positions) rose from 10,896 to 12,665 in the latest data. While this value kept rising for the fourth consecutive week, it reached a new high since the week of August 18, although the distance has been There is still a certain gap between historical highs, but if you look at the recent growth trend, the possibility of refreshing the current historical highs in the next few weeks is not low. The continued increase in currency prices has a very obvious stimulus effect on market participation.
In terms of sub-data, the large-scale brokerages’ long positions have fallen from 874 to 770. Although the long positions have fallen from historical highs, the short positions have remained unchanged at 0. This is also the first consecutive number of such accounts. The answer sheet for zero short positions was handed over in three weeks. The last time that there was no short position for three consecutive weeks had to be traced back to June 2019. Since the CFTC weekly report officially covered CME Bitcoin futures positions, this situation is only the first Occurs four times. Judging from the status of positions, the strong bullish attitude of large institutions shows no signs of faltering.
However, one thing to note is that the market has experienced a phased inflection point after the broker’s account 0 short positions for more than three consecutive weeks. The appearance of this phenomenon last year even announced the end of the Mavericks market for several months. Although it is unknown whether history will simply repeat itself, in the environment of fever in the market, the risk control thinking must not be forgotten.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of leveraged fund accounts rose from 4,558 to 5,462, and the short position increased from 7,741 to 9010 simultaneously. The short position of leveraged funds reached a record high. However, from the perspective of the proportion of changes in the value, the latest statistics The growth of long positions during the cycle is even more impressive. This shows that leveraged funds have a strong willingness to increase positions in the short term. As the main position “group” of the CME platform, leveraged funds have a substantial stimulus effect on market enthusiasm no less than the impact of large institutions with zero short positions.
In terms of large positions, long positions rose from 1926 to 2,579, and short positions rose from 2,320 to 2,578. The simultaneous increase of long and short holdings of large accounts in the latest statistical cycle continues the recent trend of synchronization of such accounts with leveraged funds. However, for the data of such accounts, the more interesting point is that these accounts have been in the past three statistical periods. Maintaining the net short position has been “subverted” in the latest statistical cycle. Although the long position of this type of account at the end of the latest statistical cycle has only achieved a relatively small advantage over the short position, this net short position reversal shows In view of the impact of the continued rise in currency prices on market sentiment, the current bullishness in the market has been quite high.
In terms of retail positions, long positions rose from 3072 to 3540, and short positions rose from 369 to 478. The continuous net long position adjustment of retail accounts in the previous two weeks has temporarily come to an end. However, considering that the long positions of such accounts have reached a new high in nearly 10 weeks, the “impact” of the small increase in short positions is limited.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
