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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the Derivatives Weekly Report, and how to interpret it?
Futures (Bitcoin)
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation overview
Last week (August 23 to August 29) Bitcoin once again showed a market performance of falling first and then rebounding. The price of the currency fell slightly throughout the week, but the actual decline was very limited. The market continued to run at a relatively high level. The range of volatility has actually narrowed compared to the previous statistical cycle. Theoretically speaking, the volatility of market sentiment will also be weakened. Whether the specific data will be presented in this way is the key point of this week’s report.
The total amount of liquidation in the market last week has not changed much compared to last week. The time-sharing peak level of liquidation is basically the same as in the previous statistical period, and the maximum value of liquidation in the two-hour period remains at around US$50 million. There has not been a situation of concentrated liquidation of more than 100 million US dollars within two hours that has often occurred before. The relatively stable performance of the market has made the occurrence of liquidation more scattered. The only thing worthy of attention is that the proportion of multiple single liquidations last week was obvious. Dominance, it can be considered that the amount of funds to bet against the trend against the trend of headspace single betting is not very impressive under the background of the continuous rise in the market. Although another inducing factor of this result may also be because the market volatility is not large enough to cause a concentrated large-scale liquidation, the recent situation of the relatively dominant market sentiment is not much controversial.
Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The trading volume of Bitcoin futures rebounded in the first half of last week. After several consecutive days of rising, it set the peak of single-day trading volume in the week on Thursday and set a new high since August 10. Although the daily trading volume on Saturday hit a new low in the month, judging from the performance of the data throughout the week, the trading volume remained basically stable. Considering that the market experienced a significant correction last Thursday, it can be seen that in the current stage, the decline has a more obvious mobilization effect on market sentiment, or it can be considered that when short-term bullish sentiment dominates, the decline is more likely to be triggered. The market’s profit reduction or top-stroke actions have side-by-side verified the “too much” tendency of the market shown by the liquidation data.
Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Contract holdings basically maintained horizontal operation. After the day when the market activity was high on Thursday, the holdings decreased. Therefore, it can be considered that the market is more concentrated after the activity of last Thursday. A similar situation occurred after the market fell. It is most likely due to the profit reduction of the previously accumulated bullish positions. It can be seen that the short-term market sentiment is not stable. Although it is not surprising that the decline in the currency price leads to the reduction of multiple orders, this adjustment is not surprising. The position may indicate that the main force in the current futures contract market, especially those who are more active in daily transactions, are often small and medium retail investors.
Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew
Futures (Ethereum)
The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation Overview
The liquidation volume of Ethereum futures contracts continued to decline in the past week, and the volume of short order liquidation during the week was very limited. Considering the actual performance of the market, this situation of almost no short order liquidation is mainly due to the overall short-selling funds in the market. Low. Although the overall participation enthusiasm is not very high, the “chasing sentiment” of the Ethereum futures market is stronger than that of the Bitcoin market.
Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The trading volume of Ethereum futures contracts continued to decline steadily after a slight rebound at the beginning of last week. Last Saturday, the market’s trading volume once again set a monthly low, and compared with last week’s single-day peak, it was even higher than the previous month’s single-day peak. It has fallen by about 70%. The overall market activity has not changed. The continued strong performance of the market has caused the main deposit funds to maintain the attitude of holding the currency to rise, and the willingness to change hands is not strong, and it is against the trend. The willingness to fight for the top is also very limited.
Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
The open interest of the Ethereum contract maintained a stable horizontal divergence last week. Compared with the previous statistical cycle, there has been basically no change. The performance of the open interest under the background of low market trading volume means that the Ethereum futures contract market has reached a new level. “Cooling off period”. If there is no strong unilateral market in the short term, then this situation is likely to lead to a further decline in the activity of the Ethereum futures market.
Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew
Options (Bitcoin)
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.
Trading volume
Bitcoin options trading volume remained at a relatively high level last week. Although the peak transaction volume on Friday fell slightly compared to Friday in the previous statistical cycle, it still hit the second highest point in the month. The market activity of the four trading days and the two days of weekends was significantly better than that of the previous statistical cycle. The rebounding momentum of the options market emphasized in the previous weekly report is still continuing. Compared with the relatively stagnant growth of the futures market, options In the short term, it is more favored by market participants.
Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin options holdings continue to rise sharply. Although the expiration of the monthly contract last Friday led to a more obvious “cliff” in the overall holdings, the holdings can still be maintained at the previous week after the expiration of this monthly contract. The peak level of, once again verified the hotness of the options market in the near future. The high probability that options are highly sought after can be interpreted as a choice that the market is difficult to control over market risks, and there is a lack of clear and consistent judgments regarding the market’s next step toward the market.
Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew
Volatility
The volatility data in the latest statistical cycle has not changed much, and the implied volatility continues to fall. It has now returned to near the low level of the month. The mild fall after the previous round of short rebounds is mainly due to the relatively “boring” continuous rise in the market recently. As a result, the market lacks strong unilateral expectations, and it is relatively difficult for the equilibrium of long-short contention to be quickly broken when the monthly line closes. However, considering that the weekly closing line will be completed on Tuesday, it is worth looking forward to whether these two data and the market itself will change in the second half of this week.
Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew
Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew
PCR
The position PCR data has once again refreshed the low level of the year, and has approached the low level at the end of 2019. This indicator has come out of a serious bearish direction similar to the end of the bear market while the currency price is still staying at nearly $50,000. This comparison What is the cause of the “puzzling” indicator situation, and whether this indicator can be simply interpreted as an empty direction at this stage is worthy of more consideration. Starting from the next issue of the weekly report, we will try to find out whether there is any reasonable reason for the abnormal situation of PCR data, and whether we can give other more reference value pointing information.
Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew
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