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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the Derivatives Weekly Report, and how to interpret it?
Futures (Bitcoin)
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation Overview
Last week (June 28th to July 4th) Bitcoin remained horizontally volatile throughout the week. The operating box height of the market during the week and the final “effective fluctuation” range are very limited, considering that this is the second consecutive week The market is operating in a state of considerable restraint, so the emotional impact caused by price fluctuations is further weakened, and the information value that some data with long and short bias can show will be further enhanced.
The total amount of liquidation in Bitcoin contracts on the main trading platform has dropped sharply in the past week. Under the condition of very stable market conditions, there is basically no extreme concentrated liquidation in the market. The US$2 billion in a week fell by nearly 60%. Last week, the only period of liquidation of more than 50 million US dollars within two hours occurred at 14:00-15:59 on July 1, and this period also happened to be the period when the lows of the whole week occurred in the past week.
Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
Last week, the trading volume of Bitcoin futures basically showed a regular unilateral downward trend. After the peak of the single-day volume of the week was set on Tuesday, the popularity of market participation continued to decline. On July 4, the single-day volume of 35 billion US dollars reached a record. The lowest level since January 24 this year. From the perspective of market enthusiasm, the “pessimistic” attitude of contract market participants has reached the peak level in the past six months. The indirect impact of this pessimistic fermentation on the market cannot be ignored.
Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin futures position data has also been stable in the past week. The willingness of contract market participants to adjust positions has also declined significantly when there is no obvious fluctuation in the market. This relatively negative attitude has also been very intuitive in the transaction volume data. reflect. In addition to the total data, the data of various exchanges have also remained basically stable. The platforms with bitcoin futures holdings of more than US$1 billion are Binance (US$2.9 billion), OKEx (US$1.6 billion), Bybit (US$1.6 billion), FTX (1.3 billion U.S. dollars) and CME (1.3 billion U.S. dollars).
Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew
Basis
At present, the positive ratio of Bitcoin short-term contract basis data has dropped significantly. After the market has fallen sharply, the market’s expectations for further short-term declines have weakened. However, the medium and long-term bearish sentiment is still very obvious in basis data. Contract investment The author’s attitude towards the mid-to-long term is quite clear.
Bitcoin futures contract basis, source: Skew
Futures (Ethereum)
The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Liquidation Overview
Last week (June 28th to July 4th) the performance of the Ethereum market was stronger than that of Bitcoin. The market showed a very obvious momentum of continuous rebound during this statistical period. Taking into account the influencing factors of the price dimension In other words, if the data of Ethereum is relatively large, it is also a relatively easy to understand emotional presentation.
The total amount of liquidation in the Ethereum contract in the past week was 447 million US dollars, which also saw a decline of nearly half compared with the previous week. During the continuous rise of the market, the frequency of extreme liquidation was basically the same as that of the sideways. Will be much lower than during the rapid decline. The time nodes for liquidation during the week are relatively scattered. It is worth mentioning that during the period from 2:00 to 3:59 on July 1st, there was a concentrated multi-single liquidation with a total amount of more than 20 million U.S. dollars in Ethereum. It is rare to see the bulls dominate in a week, and once again emphasized the necessity of risk control.
Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew
Trading volume
The trading volume of Ethereum contracts dropped again this week after a brief rebound last week, and the trading volume for the entire week has basically returned to the level of the week of June 14. From the performance of single-day data, the market trading popularity of Ethereum futures contracts Similar to Bitcoin, it has maintained a persistently sluggish operation. Compared with the peak at the beginning of the next week, the trading volume of Ethereum futures has basically remained below half the level last week. Investors in this type of contract are willing to adjust their positions. It’s low.
Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Compared with the recent cold transaction volume data, the performance of the Ethereum contract holdings in the past week is more optimistic. This is also directly related to the continuous rebound of the market. Although the overall market trading activity is not high, Market participants’ willingness to allocate Ethereum contracts has picked up. After the end of last week, the total holdings have returned to US$5.2 billion, which is the level in mid-June. However, the panic created by the last round of sharp decline is in the short-term. It weakened during the rebound.
Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew
Basis
Compared with the previous weekly report, the basis of the Ethereum contract has increased the proportion of short-term negative values. The rebound in the market has brought back short-term market sentiment. Short-term traders have increased their expectations for a further rebound in the market. This is also the most recent period. More attitudes that are rare in time are revealed.
Ethereum futures contract basis, source: Skew
Options (Bitcoin)
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.
Trading volume
The popularity of Bitcoin options trading dropped further last week. The trading volume during the two trading days on weekends has fallen to the lowest level of the year. The short-term rebound in trading volume in the first two trading days last week was not sustainable. The rise in currency prices has contributed to the popularity of the options market. The boosting effect is limited. The only thing worth mentioning is that the proportion of options trading volume on the LedgerX platform has increased significantly last week, but it is not enough to shake Deribit’s dominant position in the options market.
Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew
Open interest
Bitcoin option holdings continue to rise, and after the quarterly contract expiration date, the market continues to cover positions slowly. Considering that this rise is a regular change, there is not much value for in-depth interpretation.
Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew
Volatility
The short-term realized volatility of Bitcoin has dropped significantly in the middle and late last week. It is worth mentioning that the last similar data change occurred on June 20, and shortly after that, the market went out of a wave of amplitude comparison. Considerable rapid decline, so the performance of this data may imply that the possibility of a new round of unilateral market in the short term has increased.
Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew
After the end of the risk event on the technical graphic level of the monthly closing line, the short-term implied volatility unexpectedly dropped further, indicating that the market is not strong in expecting a clear unilateral market in the short term.
Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew
PCR
In the past week, both the Bitcoin trading volume PCR and the open interest PCR have both declined, and both values ​​have basically reached a new low level during the year. From the performance of this data, the market bearish atmosphere is still quite stable.
Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew
Option expiration
This week’s option expiration volume is basically the same as last week. On Friday, only option contracts worth about 12,500 bitcoin expire. In the short term, the impact of the contract expiration on the market is very limited.
Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew
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