[Blockchain Today Correspondent Yohan Park] The price of Bitcoin rose from less than $33,000 on January 24 to near $43,000 in the morning of February 14 (local time), but this continuous price recovery is a bull trap. ) could be argued.
A bulltrap means that a steadily declining asset appears to be reversing in an uptrend, but soon resumes the downtrend and falls further.
According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency media outlet, on the 14th, famous cryptocurrency analyst Ari Rudd argued in an internet post that “Bitcoin appears to be ready to fall below $30,000 in the next few months.” Here are the analyst’s three technical setups, predicting Bitcoin’s ‘extremely bearish outlooks’:
Bitcoin LFG model
Ari Rudd’s Logarithmic Fractal Growth is a Bitcoin fractal composed of logarithmic (log) scales on both axes. It is a model that predicts the price of Bitcoin and moves the price of the past. technology to predict the next price. A fractal is a mathematical term referring to a figure that has the shape of the whole within the part when the whole is divided into parts.
Ari Rud applied this LFG model to the monthly chart of BTC/USD.
According to the chart, LFG has established itself as an accumulation/diversity zone for traders during the previous bearish cycle. As such, Bitcoin will see its price decline further to reach a ‘buy-area’ that coincides with the lows during the 2018 and 2020 price crashes, Arirud pointed out. “The best-case scenario for a buying opportunity is in the $24,000 to $27,000 range, and we still have several months to reach this accumulation phase,” he said.
â—†Moving Average Ribbon support
Like the LFG model, the Moving Average Ribbon also coincided with the end of the Bitcoin bearish cycle, which included 2018 and 2020 on a quarterly basis.
A ribbon representing the range of a moving average (MA) helps traders identify key resistance and support areas by identifying the price associated with the MA. Previous Bitcoin top-to-bottom trends have been exhausted near the so-called ribbon support.
According to Ari Ruud, Bitcoin is going through a price correction, falling from the top of $69,000. Although Bitcoin has recently rebounded strongly from around $33,000, it is highly likely to become a bull trap. This is because the price of Bitcoin will retest the ribbon support of the branch chart formed near $25,000.
â—†Weekly ribbon resistance (RSI)
Another Moving Average Ribbon is set as weekly, and it can be seen that the continuous price rebound of Bitcoin is blocked.
Ari Ruud could provide additional bearish sentiment if the strong resistance formed in this graph combined with Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI). He also noted that the RSI provides traders with clues on bullish and bearish price momentum, with buying momentum weakening around the declining RSI trendline, suggesting a potential sell-off for BTC/USD.
However, Cointelegraph added that there are several Bitcoin on-chain indicators that predict a temporary bull market, contrary to Ari Ruud’s negative outlook.
In particular, Bitcoin addresses that seem to hold at least 1,000 BTC recently purchased additional Bitcoin to support the Bitcoin rebound. According to data from Glassnode, as of the 13th, exchanges held the fell to the lowest level of
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