Analyze the current market stage from the second altcoin outbreak period in 2017/18.
Written by: Secrets
Compiler: Li Ke
What is Altseason?
Altseason refers to the period of altcoin explosion. Some people think this is just an “ordinary digital currency bull market”, but in my opinion, this is a special phenomenon at the end of the altcoin bubble. At this time, you can get the most profit in the shortest time and the market reaches the peak of madness. You can cash out boldly.
Where are we now?
The last cycle of digital currency experienced two altseason periods, one in December 2017 and one in March 2018. They only lasted about a month or less.
I think we may be in the first altcoin explosion period of this cycle, which means that every time the price rises to the apex of the parabola, it is an excellent opportunity for arbitrage.
What will happen next?
If we are going through the first altseason of this cycle, then the market will experience a major correction, and then the market will rebound, and we will experience the last altseason after Bitcoin peaks.
How to deal with the outbreak of copycats?
Will we encounter such an altseason before the next major market adjustment occurs? No one knows the answer. But the current market conditions are still relatively favorable. My strategy is to take a small portion of the profits on the way to the altseason. If you really encounter the altseason, I will boldly arbitrage and lock in profits.
About my strategy
My main focus is now from short-term profits to long-term profits. If the market will undergo a correction soon, I will continue to hold it until the second larger bubble of this cycle (altcoin burst period) appears.
Graphical 2017/18 second altcoin outbreak period
If you want to know more about the rules of the 2 altseason outbreaks that occurred in the last cycle of 2017/18, please see the analysis below:
Two altcoin outbreaks in 2017/18 (yellow bars)
- In the last cycle, before the two altcoin outbreaks, Bitcoin experienced a 10-fold increase. With a large number of new investors entering the market, Bitcoin experienced violent fluctuations and sideways consolidation during this period.
- When the Bitcoin price reached its third peak in history in March 2018, altcoins exploded intensively, and most altcoins had a high arbitrage window of about 2 weeks.
- When ETH and BTC fluctuate violently, altcoins are likely to explode.
- Two-thirds of the altcoins reached their highest prices during the first altcoin outbreak.
- At the apex of the last k-line parabola before the start of the bear market, altcoins are likely to blow out (this is the second and last altcoin outbreak in the previous cycle), the so-called last carnival.
- The second altcoin outbreak of the last cycle lasted about 2 months, but the most intensive outbreak lasted about 1 month (March 2018).
to sum up
- When Bitcoin reaches the peak of the k-line parabola + the price of Ethereum reaches the peak of the parabola = the altcoin outbreak period.
- There may be 2 altcoin outbreak periods in a cycle.
- I think we may be in the first altcoin outbreak period of this cycle. After that, the market will undergo an adjustment, and then the market will rebound until it breaks a new high and reaches a peak. At that time, we will usher in the second altcoin outbreak period. , It will also be the last carnival of this round.
Source link: twitter.com
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