Author: cncoin, originating in the “clouds block chain”
Since September, the defi on the market has gradually become colder. Some popular defi projects in the early stage have gradually started a downtrend. Although the impact of uni’s large airdrops has been delayed, the impact of the external market has still passed through, making this For a while, many people’s life is not easy, which also marks the gradual arrival of phase adjustments.
1. Geopolitical risks are rapidly increasing, and risk aversion is heating up
Regarding the investment market, no matter which product it is, bonds, stocks, foreign exchange, gold, crude oil, etc., in fact, they are affected by the general environment in certain respects. This general environment has many manifestations, and it is often difficult for many people. Prediction, but when it comes, if you don’t consider the impact of this general environment, you may lose miserably.
The first major environmental impact this year is the new crown pneumonia. There is no doubt that the 312 plunge was directly affected by the new crown pneumonia. Under the cover of the nest, there are no eggs, and all investment markets around the world have panic. At this time, encryption Currency is not immune, so that “golden pit” was created. Veterans in the investment industry who are sensitive to smell, I believe that basically can avoid that plunge.
The direct lesson 312 brings us is that all markets are closely connected. When investing in cryptocurrency, we must pay more attention to news outside of Amber, so as to fully understand the essence of the matter.
After 312, the biggest thing in the second half of the year will be the conflict between China and the United States and the U.S. election. This is definitely something that the world must pay attention to. Of course, the Sino-U.S. conflict is actually a part of the U.S. election. According to past historical judgments, every time before the U.S. election, U.S. leaders like to play the Chinese card, and it is still very unfriendly. Therefore, in this U.S. election, both parties in the United States have shown a tough attitude on China. This is There are certain market expectations.
At the same time, because the Taiwan issue has been hyped by the media in the past few days, all parties have tightened up. This high-pressure political situation is bound to be reflected in the financial sector. Therefore, global stock markets have fallen by more than 3%. Cryptocurrencies are basically all It is a drop of more than 10%. In this high pressure situation, even the safe-haven gold faces downside risks, so this is unavoidable in the short term.
So at present, the US election is the top priority here. Therefore, it can be predicted that at least after the dust settles in November, plus if the new crown vaccine can be mass-produced, it will basically be the end of adjustment. That is to say, the direction can only be truly judged after the US general election. Before this time, unless there is a local military conflict, there will be basically no big market, and all parties will still exercise some restraint.
2. The U.S. dollar is released, and the over-issued usdt cannot sustain the bull market for long
One of the factors of the Defi bull market is the release of the US dollar and the over-issue of USDT. Some people describe that tether will put 100 million US dollars into the market almost every day during this period. Even so, we see that the currency price has fallen off the cliff in the past few days. , The method of releasing water cannot sustain a long bull market.
More funds actually participated in the defi bull market process is basically low-risk projects, such as aave and compound deposit money management, and some high-risk defi projects, such as liquid mining, which actually do not account for a lot of funds.
Due to the high-risk and high-yield characteristics, in fact, when this wave of defi bull market is about to end, basically liquid dollars, that is, usdt, etc. began to flood the market, causing the corresponding exchange rate to fall. If we look closely, it was actually in early September. If you see the USD exchange rate drop, you can basically guess that the funds should be prepared, or that the funds did not find projects that can participate in, which caused too much USD, resulting in a generally low over-the-counter exchange rate, which was also withdrawn at that time. The best time to come out.
Through the factor of the usdt exchange rate, we can actually think deeply in many situations. For example, when the usdt exchange rate rises during a big drop, then we can buy the bottom. If the exchange rate remains the same or is still going to decrease, then we have to consider waiting. It is a relatively good auxiliary tool.
3. Bitcoin’s computing power hit a new high, and miners’ income dropped sharply
When everyone is paying attention to liquidity mining, Bitcoin mining, which is a traditional cryptocurrency mining, has a relatively stable computing power. Most people actually do not want Bitcoin to skyrocket or increase during this period. A sharp drop, because a sharp drop is very likely to damage the market, and a sharp rise will cause a blood-sucking market, so the currency price stability is an ideal way.
Of course, some media have reported that since the second half of the year, various mining machine manufacturers are facing shortages, so the mining machine market will actually not increase much.
At present, TSMC has been unable to accept Huawei’s order business, so it may cause some capacity vacancies. This is actually a relatively good news for the chip industry in short supply, and TSMC’s production capacity has been in full capacity for a long time. The half-year recovery of mining machine production capacity is actually an opportunity.
Under this expectation, the mining computing power may increase further in the future. At the same time, according to media reports, Bitmain’s infighting may come to an end. In the future, mining machines may be sold steadily. The surge in power, we can think that the high probability is that Bitmain’s previous mining machines or after reshaping the supply chain will send out mining machines to customers.
Similarly, the increase in computing power is actually not a good thing for old miners. For the Shenma M20S, it has been digging for nearly a year. By the second half of this year, the net income is now basically 1 yuan per day. Around this, this will continue to extend the payback time. Before the price of the currency has risen sharply, it is actually possible that some mining disasters have vaguely occurred.
And during this period, we have also seen many giant whales in Bitcoin gradually cross-chain their funds to the Ethereum chain, generate WBTC, participate in defi mining, and obtain a certain amount of income, thus making up for some of the Bitcoin mining Loss, so the media focus will be much less.
But in any case, the increase in difficulty is actually not a good thing for miners. Coupled with the decline in currency prices in the past few days, in fact, it has gradually approached the limit at present, then this situation may appear at some point in the future. Especially prominent.
4. DEFI+ hedging reduces risk loss
Many miners use hedging methods when mining Bitcoin to lock in profits in advance. Some time ago, the price of Ethereum rose sharply, and the income of graphics card mining also increased rapidly, even in just a few months. In fact, this is not normal in the short term. As the author introduced in the previous article, if hedging is done at a high point in the period, then the current benefits are also very considerable.
In defi mining, there are actually some risk losses, such as the impermanence loss we said. The boss of Yuchi, Shenyu, ridiculed others when the currency price fell in the middle of the night. Market-making losses in At this time, hedging is very important. It is similar to traditional mining. For example, if I want to perform eth-usdt liquidity mining, then I can carry out eth short hedging at this time. In this way, mining In the process, no matter the currency price rises or falls, in fact, this risk fluctuation will be reduced theoretically. Also because eth is a mainstream currency, the corresponding fluctuation is not particularly large, so in this case, you can actually participate in defi relatively well. Mining.
Of course, it should be noted that the current fee on Ethereum is relatively high, so if it is a small fund, you can participate in the mining of eos-usdt, and then hedge eos. In this way, basically The loss of impermanence is much smaller and the operation is more flexible.
In addition, with the involvement of large funds in digital currency mining, it is possible that in the next few years, the mining dividend of Bitcoin will gradually decrease. At this time, mining Bitcoin may not be the best choice, so we need to pay attention It is the mining of some mainstream coins that will usher in a wave of small peaks. For example, this time Ether, the mining of Ethereum in the market is not particularly large, so in the future, ordinary users need to focus on mining methods. Transfer, this is also very necessary.
