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1. The starting point in the picture is the lowest point before each round of the bull market, and the end point is the highest point. Up to now, the “growth/time” of this round of bull market (purple line) and the previous round (green line) are basically the same, which is currently equivalent to the previous round of January 2, 2017 .
2. If it is completely synchronized with the previous cycle, this bull market will peak on December 20, 2021 .
3. But the larger the volume of Bitcoin, the lower the volatility and the slower the rise. If the rise is slow, it is even less likely to trigger the “60-day rise is too large, new funds cannot keep up, leading to a high collapse” event, and the bull market lasts longer . Therefore, the bull market in the first three cycles lasted longer and longer, and the increase multiple became smaller and smaller.
If it is assumed that the time of each cycle increases and the value added decreases linearly, the current bull market will last for 1,288 days, peaking on June 23, 2022 .
4. Note that the above is not an induction method (the first three times are xxx, so the fourth time will be xxx), the induction method is prone to “turkey farmer error” (turkeys observe that the farmers come to feed every day, so summarize the rules: Food will fall from the sky every day, and as a result, it will all be slaughtered on Thanksgiving).
It is the deductive method . By analyzing the first 3 cycles, the internal law is obtained (the bull market ends in a crash with excessively high gains on the 60th), and the fourth is predicted based on the internal law + theorem (the larger the volume of investment products, the lower the volatility) cycle.
5. As mentioned in the previous article, the upcoming mainstream currency surge is also deductive, not inductive. According to the retail low price theorem (retail investors like to buy cheap coins with a large increase) and the phenomenon (every time Bitcoin breaks the previous high, the news will cause a large number of retail investors to flood in), it is predicted that mainstream coins will surge after BTC breaks the previous high .
Review the former & back cows of the previous article:
According to whether it breaks through the previous high, the bull market can be divided into two stages: “pre-bull market” and “post-bull market” . In the former bull market (including the second half of the bear market), funds are more risk-oriented. It is unknown whether the currency you buy will survive the next bull market, so everyone is more willing to buy BTC that will definitely survive the next round .
And once BTC breaks through the previous high, it means a large influx of newcomers . Because more than 80% of people learned about Bitcoin through the latest bubble in a certain round of bull market, and most of them don’t know much about Bitcoin. Staying in the news “Bitcoin is a scam, a bubble, and Ponzi is about to collapse to zero.”
Until the next time Bitcoin breaks through the previous high and creates a batch of news, and then a batch of people who have heard of Bitcoin at the end of the last bull market will find out: “Hey, Bitcoin is not dead yet? Has it reached a new high? It doesn’t look like a bubble scam?” . As a result, a new round of users flooded Amber with the news of Bitcoin’s repeated record highs, and the wheel of history rolled forward.
As soon as newcomers enter Amber, will they buy Bitcoin? Most of them will not, because they think that Bitcoin is too expensive, and Bitcoin is already ATH (All time high), it is better to buy those plates that are smaller, have more stories, have not reached the previous high, and have increased multiples The bigger mainstream currency, the altcoin .
As a result, not only LTC, but also the top 20 currencies have started the main rise, leaving Bitcoin far behind.
6. The last article used LTC as an example. In fact, the top 20 mainstream coins have similar performance . I won’t take so many statistics from the top 20. In October 2015 when the last bull market started, I took the top 10 mainstream coins at that time (with 9 USDT removed), except for the MAID that had risen in advance, and broke in BTC. At the previous high, the increase in BTC was not obvious, and the remaining 8 coins all verified this prediction.
There was a stage in the last round of BTC breaking the previous high. On February 23, 2017, it effectively broke through the previous high for the first time, and then pulled back. It broke through for the last time on April 17 (there was no lower than the previous high). The “breaking high period” from February 23 to April 17 is marked in yellow in the figure .
7. Some people will worry about whether this institutional bull will cause the mainstream currency to skyrocket no longer.
First of all, don’t deify institutions. Institutions are just big leeks in this fast-developing market that requires high awareness . When I was 1,500 yuan in science popularization of Bitcoin in 2015, institutions did not buy it. They had to wait until Bitcoin rose to 120,000 yuan before rushing in to buy it. From this perspective, is the institution a large leek?
Organizations are mechanisms for collective decision-making, and collective wisdom has a very low upper limit on the level of decision-making, which means it is a little smarter than ordinary people . Suppose there is a very smart trader in an institution. He may have realized that Bitcoin is promising as early as six or seven years ago, but can he buy Bitcoin? No, because there is no compliance channel.
In the future, even when the Grayscale Fund appears in 2013, it is difficult to get institutions from traders to supervisors to decision makers to agree that it is right to buy Bitcoin. This probability is relatively small, and it is difficult to gather high awareness. . Even if everyone agrees to buy bitcoin, they will still encounter regulatory obstacles, and regulation is another collective wisdom cap. Therefore, institutions cannot buy cheap “real” bitcoins, they can only buy expensive compliant bitcoins, and paper bitcoins that cannot be withdrawn.
From the perspective of financial bubbles, is there a financial bull market in history where only institutions participated and no retail investors participated? Without retail investors, where is the fanaticism, where is the bubble? It’s not even a bull market logically . Conversely, if institutions participate, the rise is so messed up that retail investors can resist entering? Institutions can buy from funds such as Grayscale, retail investors can buy directly from the market, or from places such as Paypal.
Therefore, pay attention to the four treasures of Paypal (BTC ETH BCH LTC). Amber has only a few million currency holders, while Paypal has 300 million users .
Therefore, institutional participation may change a certain K-line (for example, an increase from 10,000 to 19,500 without callback is very rare), but it will not change the general direction of the entire bull market. After BTC breaks the previous high, BTC masters Shenglang and the mainstream surge in BTC will happen at the same time .
In the future, institutions will also buy mainstream coins (with user demand), but they are relatively stupid and have to give them time to learn. The BTC bought for 1,500 yuan will be sold to institutions for 120,000 yuan, and then the value of mainstream currency will be exchanged. Doesn’t it smell:)
8. The bull market is coming, and you must not do the band in the main Shenglang . The increase promoted by the central bank (through money printing) will ignore all technical indicators.
The blockchain market is often the quotation of hairtails. What’s worse than having no fish is that a hairtail only ate a fish head .
Of course, historically speaking, it is a pity that most people can’t hold the currency, and they sold the currency early at some point in the bull market . Only miners, most miners, can eat the bull market from beginning to end . The reason is simple:
You can’t help but want to sell the coins that you have increased by 10 times.
But you will definitely not want to sell the hen (mining machine) that keeps laying golden eggs.
