Liu Changyong: When the market value of derivatives far exceeds the cost of computing power, Bitcoin must be vigilant against large-scale attacks in conjunction with technology and finance
In 2021, the crypto asset market is off to a good start, with Bitcoin breaking through $40,000 and Ethereum breaking through $1,200. After experiencing the abundance and magic of 2020, we know that now you are either in the hesitation and regret of to da moon, or in the optimism and longing of to da moon, some “outsiders” are eager to try and want to jump into this market. . In any case, there is still a big opportunity in 2021 (at the same time be sure to “drive” carefully).
By October 2021, I estimate that Bitcoin will break through $100,000 and Ethereum will reach $10,000. In the atmosphere of the bull market, the black swan event that I am most worried about is that the total value of Bitcoin derivatives assets far exceeds the cost of Bitcoin computing power, and large-scale attacks involving technical and financial means may occur.
Pay attention to UNI, it is very likely to break into the top 10 market cap. XRP may fall out of the top 10. Of course, I also hope that everyone will pay more attention to FCH (Free Cash). For individual investors, I suggest investing in long-term trends and bull-bear cycles, and try to minimize short-term and leverage. If you must do it, treat it as a pure consumer behavior and spend money on entertainment.
The value of the blockchain comes from a decentralized economic organization that greatly improves economic efficiency, that is, the use of cryptographic consensus mechanisms (asymmetric cryptography and distributed consensus) to achieve the decentralization of traditional economic infrastructure and transform the Internet economy into a “cryptographic economy” (Including blockchain and digital economy).
The economic dividends that have been realized are mainly decentralized currencies, decentralized securities, and decentralized transactions. The decentralization of more fields requires the decentralization of the bottom of the social and economic organization, including the decentralization of the identity system, relationship system, reputation system and other fields. FCH is systematically building the underlying infrastructure of the crypto economy.
In 2021, a major breakthrough from decentralized crypto assets to a decentralized crypto economy will be seen. Blockchain will no longer be limited to the financial field. Decentralized identity and decentralized reputation systems will be in line with the existing ones. The combination of decentralized storage and decentralized assets demonstrates the basic logic of the full shift of the Internet economy to the crypto economy.
In the next 20 years or so, the crypto economy will completely transform the Internet economy, and the general trend is rapid growth. As a major social and economic innovation and reform, the change between currencies is inevitable, and only a few succeed in the end. In addition, the bull-bear cycle is inevitable throughout the process, but the fluctuation range should gradually shrink.
