Large institutions once again staged a “perfect” prediction. Will the script repeat last September? | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

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On January 23, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (January 13-January 19). The BTC market has experienced ups and downs during the latest statistical cycle. The first half of the period has a second impact on the 40,000 integer mark in the short term. After the trial, it was frustrated again, and there was a deep correction of about US$6,000 at one time. However, at the end of the statistical period, the market stabilized and rebounded. In the end, the BTC price still rose by more than US$3,000 throughout the statistical period. The deep correction before the end did not lead to the direct appearance of a trend decline.

The number of total positions (total open positions) fell from 12,039 to 1,1945 in the latest data. The rebound in market participation in the past two statistical periods came to an abrupt halt, and the continuous impact of the 40,000 integer mark resulted in market sentiment. Gradually turning to anxiety, which led to the emergence of profit reduction or risk reduction behavior.

In terms of sub-data, large-scale asset management institutions’ long positions have further dropped from 733 to 639. This value has dropped for two consecutive weeks and has returned to the level of the closing period of 2020. The more noteworthy point is the short position. The position increased sharply from 0 to 123, setting a new high since the week of September 1 last year, which is a nearly 20-week high.

What’s more interesting is that the last time large institutions had such “large” short positions, they also directly increased their holdings from nearly zero to this level. After the last time this position adjustment occurred, BTC in the next statistical cycle There was a sharp decline of up to 20% in the three trading days, but in the end it did not change the medium and long-term upward trend. Due to the certain lag in the data release of the weekly position report, BTC has experienced a sharp drop of about 20% within three trading days after the latest statistical cycle, and has also entered a relatively stable shock after the sharp drop.

From the point of view of position adjustments, large institutions once again accurately predicted the deep correction of the market, but just as this type of account had a significant short order reduction in the next statistical cycle after the significant increase in the short order in September last year , And finally proved that this round of correction is only a short-term correction, not a trend reversal. Therefore, for investors, it is not recommended to interpret the position adjustment of large institutions as an inflection point, and one or two statistical cycles in the future Subsequent position adjustments within are more important.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts fell from 4,107 to 3,911, failing to continue the rebound momentum of the previous statistical cycle, and the short positions fell from 9,602 to 9,119. After leveraged funds carried out a simultaneous increase in long and short positions in the last statistical cycle, bilateral positions were reduced in the latest statistical cycle. The unsuccessful continuous impact of the market on key positions has caused such accounts to shake their optimism about the market outlook. However, from the perspective of the extent of bilateral lightening, the reduction of short orders is slightly greater than that of long orders. Therefore, it may be understood that the data in this period show that leveraged funds have carried out risk control lightening, but the short-term overweight attitude has temporarily continued.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions rebounded from 2,522 to 2,879, which hit a record high, and short positions rose from 373 to 674. In the last statistical cycle, the accounts of large accounts carried out a clear “contrarian” net air-conditioning position, but in the latest statistical cycle, a substantial increase in multiple orders was carried out, and the long position directly hit a record high. It can be considered that this type of The short-term panic sentiment of the account has obviously eased as the market stabilized, and the short-term bearish attitude of this type of account has been reversed.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail positions, long positions fell from 3676 to 3529, and short positions rebounded from 633 to 746. In the latest statistical cycle, retail investors have very interestingly “inherited” the mantle of large accounts in the previous statistical cycle, becoming the only type of account that has a net air-conditioning warehouse other than asset management institutions. Especially in the context of the net long position adjustment of such accounts in the last statistical period, the “jump” of this thinking can be regarded as one of the usual “features” of retail investors. Therefore, it is not recommended to over-interpret the adjustment of such accounts.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

Asset management institutions’ performance in adjusting their positions in the latest statistical cycle is perfect. After the accurate prediction of the market’s deep correction in September last year, next large institutions will continue to increase short positions or regain chasing attitudes, or they will become investors in the short term. It is a very important wind direction, because the performance of large institutions in the next few weekly reports should not be missed.

Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?

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