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CME Bitcoin Futures
On June 26, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (June 16-June 22). Bitcoin fell sharply during the statistical period, falling from above $40,000 to below $29,000 during the cycle. On the last trading day of the cycle, the market fell first and then rebounded, but it failed to recover the weakness of nearly $10,000 for the entire week. In this general environment where the market has obvious unilateral fluctuations, whether all kinds of investors in the market will react to the trend or will “buy the bottom” in the reverse direction will be the key point of this week’s report.
The number of total positions (total open positions) in the latest data has further increased from 7,823 to 7,914. This value has achieved a three-week rise, but the increase has been very limited, and the market’s participation has been affected by the weakness of the market. The impact has not been able to recover quickly, but considering that in the latest statistical cycle, the value continued to rebound when the market fell significantly. Therefore, in which type of account, the position of which direction has increased, it is necessary to pay attention to the specific analysis. Item data.
In terms of sub-data, long positions of the largest dealers rebounded from 227 to 255. This value got rid of the 29-week low set in the previous statistical period. Short positions further dropped from 153 to 145. Long and short two-way (hedged) positions have risen from 50 to 81. Large institutions have conducted long-lost net-long adjustments in the latest statistical cycle. This is undoubtedly a very interesting adjustment option, after all, for dealers. As far as large institutions are concerned, the probability of such “contrarian operations” in a near-unilateral market is very low. It can be said that large institutions have expressed a very strong attitude of rebounding.
Asset management institutions’ long positions fell from 521 to 419, short positions rose from 629 to 739, and two-way positions fell from 5 to 0. In the latest statistical cycle, the asset management agency decisively abandoned the idea of adjusting the net long position in the previous statistical period and moved to a clear-cut net air-conditioning warehouse. In the case of a sharp decline in the market, the continued pursuit of short-term gains shows that asset management agencies are not optimistic about the strength of short-term rebounds. Two types of larger institutional accounts have opened a very rare long-short game.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of the leveraged fund accounts fell from 2,610 to 2,563, the short positions fell from 5,093 to 4,927, and the two-way positions decreased from 658 to 474. Leveraged funds have carried out simultaneous long and short two-way reductions in the latest statistical cycle, but the reduction is very limited. In the context of a significant decline in the market, this kind of conservative adjustment performance of such accounts can be regarded as a kind of relative An expression of an optimistic attitude, but this kind of “optimism” is not “simple looking at more”, it can only be regarded as an expectation for the market to remain active.
In terms of large positions, long positions rose from 1605 to 1910, short positions rose from 245 to 361, and two-way positions rose from 187 to 299. In the latest statistical cycle, large accounts have carried out a considerable amount of simultaneous long and short two-way simultaneous increase in holdings. Considering that large accounts have frequently made net adjustments with clear directions in the past period of time, this simultaneous increase in holdings of multiple types of positions expresses The overweight sentiment is very limited. However, in the context of the sharp decline in the market, what this large increase in positions means may require further judgment in conjunction with the subsequent adjustment performance in the next one or two statistical cycles.
In terms of retail positions, long positions dropped from 1961 to 1913, and short positions rose from 803 to 888. In the latest statistical cycle, retail investors have carried out a homeopathic net air-conditioning warehouse. This choice is consistent with the direction of the asset management agency. Under the market background of this statistical cycle, it also seems very “reasonable”. It is worth mentioning that the previous weekly report One of the questions left in, that is, “will retail investors quickly change their thinking about adjusting positions in the direction of market fluctuations?” The answer is already very obvious. Retail investors did not continue to “blindly buy bottoms”, but chose to abandon more and choose short.
CME Micro Bitcoin Futures
The total number of positions (total open positions) in the latest data has risen from 18,230 to 28,720. This data has risen sharply, but there is still a large gap from the historical high level set a month and a half ago. The contract’s open interest is still in a state of “not stable enough”.
In terms of sub-data, long positions of the largest dealers rose from 0 to 214, short positions rose from 561 to 1273, and long and short (hedged) positions remained unchanged at 0. Dealer accounts have simultaneously increased their holdings in long and short positions in the latest statistical cycle. This is also the first time this type of account has configured a certain amount of long position after a small test in the second week after the micro-bitcoin contract was included in the data statistics. Taking into account that the increase in short positions is more obvious, this type of account still maintains a relatively clear headroom in the micro-bitcoin contract. This is once again a “hedging” with the net long position adjustment of the standard bitcoin contract. “. However, it is worth noting that this type of account has a greater increase in long positions in standard Bitcoin contracts, so this hedging did not affect the attitude of this type of account to “buy the bottom” during the statistical period.
Asset management institutions’ positions have dropped from 210 long positions to 60 positions. This is the first time that the long positions of this type of account have changed after three weeks. The short position remains unchanged at 0, and the two-way position also remains unchanged at 0. Asset management agencies’ reduction of multiple orders in the latest statistical cycle is consistent with the selection in standard Bitcoin contracts. Such accounts have a clear bearish attitude towards the market outlook.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of the leveraged fund account increased from 1993 to 9,516, the short position increased from 5,699 to 10,915, and the two-way position rose from 8052 to 10,379. Leveraged funds made a “retaliatory” cover-up in the latest statistical cycle after a substantial reduction in their positions in the last statistical cycle. It is precisely because of the substantial increase in holdings of such accounts that the total number of micro-bitcoin contract positions has been increased. Substantial Increase. It is worth mentioning that in this simultaneous increase in holdings, although this type of account maintains the total amount of open positions, the increase in long positions is much larger than that of short positions. At present, the gap between the two types of positions has been basically “smoothed.” “This type of account shows a certain overwhelming attitude in the micro bitcoin contract.
In terms of large positions, long positions fell from 2,813 to 2,570, short positions rose from 1925 to 4988, and two-way positions fell from 789 to 112. Large households have made clear net air-conditioning positions in the latest statistical cycle, and the increase in short positions is very substantial. The long-short preferences of such accounts that are not expressed in the standard Bitcoin contract are revealed in the micro Bitcoin contract. This type of account has actually stood in the bearish camp.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions rose from 4373 to 5869, and short positions fell from 1204 to 1053. Retail investors have made a clear net long position adjustment in the latest statistical cycle, and this choice is just contrary to the choice of this type of account in the standard contract. Although considering the quantity, the total amount of the adjustment position of the standard contract is larger. However, retail investors’ “buying dips” in micro-bitcoin contracts in a sense expressed that the relatively smaller groups of retail investors appeared to have shown a strong willingness to buy dips and do more after this sharp drop.
CME Ethereum Futures
In the latest statistical cycle, Ethereum also saw a significant decline, and the market basically returned to the state of synchronization with Bitcoin, which also provided a unilateral decline market environment for various market participants.
The number of total positions (total open positions) dropped from 3470 to 2896 in the latest data. This value has fallen for the second consecutive week. The increase in the rebound in early June has basically been fully taken back. The continued decline of the Ethereum contract has caused a relatively obvious negative impact on the market popularity of the Ethereum contract, which is a clear departure from the Bitcoin contract.
In terms of sub-data, long positions of the largest dealers rose from 27 to 53, short positions increased from 63 to 78, and long and short (hedged) positions rose from 0 to 33. Although the total number of positions held in the market has declined, the dealer account has carried out a full range of position increase. Although it does not show a clear preference for long and short, it can be considered that the attention of the dealer account to Ethereum has increased. Large institutions are gradually increasing the layout of Ethereum contracts.
Asset management institutions’ long positions remained unchanged at 0, short positions increased from 75 to 126, and two-way positions remained unchanged at 0. Asset management agencies did not cover their long positions and hedged positions before, but increased their short positions in the latest statistical cycle. They have a clear short-term bearish attitude and continue to raise their positions for Ethereum, which has already seen a significant decline. Shorting, which is very similar to the choice of this type of account on Bitcoin.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of the leveraged fund account fell from 1,448 to 1,174, the short position simultaneously dropped from 2,720 to 2,217, a decline from a historical high, and the two-way position rose from 42 to 54. Leveraged funds undertook both long and short holdings simultaneously during the latest statistical cycle, and the previous continuous holdings came to an end. The continuous decline in prices has formed a very obvious suppression on the participation of leveraged funds. This reduction in holdings can be understood as a risk control operation.
In terms of large holdings, long positions further dropped from 612 to 477, short positions rebounded from 31 to 78, and two-way positions fell from 113 to 0. The accounts of large accounts have carried out net air-conditioning warehousing during the latest statistical cycle, which is also a choice to adapt to the direction of market fluctuations, so it is not surprising. However, it is worth mentioning that this type of account has emptied the hedged positions in the latest statistical cycle. Whether this position reduction is a bearish signal of a decline in willingness to participate deserves continued attention.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions dropped from 1,228 to 1,105, and short positions dropped from 426 to 310. In the latest statistical cycle, retail investors carried out simultaneous long and short two-way reductions, and carried out risk control in the context of the sharp decline, but still did not give a new unilateral tendency.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
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