On December 12, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (December 2nd to December 8th). During the statistical period, BTC maintained a narrow range of lateral fluctuations, and the price fluctuation space remained at a level of about 1,000 throughout the week. The U.S. dollar moves within the narrow area, and it does not show a clear unilateral tendency of long and short. Taking into account that the market fluctuations are located close to historical highs, the market’s nervousness for re-topping has accelerated in the process of fluctuations, and this sentiment is more intuitively reflected in the ideas of adjusting positions of various accounts. .
The total number of positions (the total number of open positions) in the latest period of data has further dropped from 11,812 to 11,750. This value has fallen for two consecutive weeks after the end of the three-week streak, and is now basically back to the level of three weeks ago. . Although the BTC price has not seen a significant correction, as mentioned above, the high volatility of the market has caused anxiety in the market, and risk control and lightening have become a “reasonable” choice under this mood.
In terms of sub-data, large-scale brokerages have long positions dropped from 626 to 544, and short positions have rebounded from 0 to 11. The pessimistic attitude of large institutions towards the market outlook has not changed, since the short-term rise of BTC has stopped. Later, a series of position adjustments of large institutions basically expressed a lack of confidence in the market outlook and new highs. Although the clear partial air-conditioning positions in the latest statistical cycle did not substantially narrow the gap between long and short positions, long positions continued Cuts are already a very clear risk warning signal thrown by large institutions.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of leveraged fund accounts further dropped from 4509 to 4365, and the short position decreased slightly from 9375 to 9354. The leveraged fund continued the idea of lightening positions in the previous statistical cycle, including the reduction of long positions The magnitude is even greater. The logic of this period’s position adjustment is basically the same as that of the broker’s account. Both have actively controlled multiple orders during the process of high market fluctuations.
Similar to the results of the previous weekly report, major institutional investors did not continue to bet on BTC to break new highs at this stage. The profit reduction and risk control of multiple orders have become the mainstream choice of institutional investors.
In terms of large positions, long positions fell from 2442 to 2063, and short positions fell sharply from 460 to 177. It is basically the same as the idea of adjusting positions of leveraged funds. In the latest statistical cycle, large accounts have also carried out simultaneous reductions in long and short two-way positions. However, it is worth mentioning that after this round of position adjustments, such accounts have created short positions. This is a new low since the week of March 17 this year, which means that the current position ratio of this type of account has basically returned to the state after the 3.12 drop. Considering that this type of account has reduced its short position to the current level several times before. Soon it has entered a situation of substantially overweighting and shorting, so the idea of adjusting positions for this type of account in the next few weeks is worth looking forward to.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions rose further from 3334 to 3403, and short positions rebounded from 461 to 506. Contrary to other types of accounts, retail investors chose to increase their positions simultaneously during the period of high market fluctuations. Although the adjustment of positions is not large, it shows that this type of account does not have a clear unilateral tendency to the market. This increase in holdings at least shows that the continued high prices have played a more obvious drainage effect for retail investors. From the perspective of changes in positions, the “new blood” in the market in the latest statistical cycle is mainly provided by retail investors. However, the continuity of this purchasing power may require a big question mark.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?