Lianwen summarizes the top ten data, and takes you to explore the reasons for the strong rise of Bitcoin.
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So far, the consensus of Bitcoin has reached a new height. On November 18th, Bitcoin broke through US$18,000, reaching a maximum of US$ 18,477 . It was only about US$1,500 from the historical high of nearly US$20,000 on December 17, 2017.
Link News found through comparison of relevant indicator data that the market as a whole is optimistic about Bitcoin in 2020. In addition to the development of Bitcoin’s own consensus, Bitcoin’s rise may also be affected by other factors such as DeFi , derivatives, and institutions . But there is no doubt that Bitcoin has become one of the best performing assets this year. From this chain news summarized 10 angles of data to explore the reasons for the strong rise of Bitcoin.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine
Bitcoin has achieved a new high in market value
Bitcoin has achieved market capitalization (Realized Cap) _ is a concept CoinMetrics (referred to as CM) raised its price at the time the index a recent move is calculated by using every bit money supply. Market Capitalization is the market value , derived from stocks, which refers to the stock’s liquidity multiplied by the latest price, which is a commonly used concept in CoinMarketCap (CMC).
The realized market value more accurately reflects the market value of Bitcoin, because it takes into account the final price of all transactions on the chain, not just the most recently traded Bitcoin. It can be regarded as a more ” real ” long-term measure of the value of Bitcoin, and its market value fluctuates up and down according to the prevailing market sentiment.
As of November 18, BTC has achieved a market value of nearly 130 billion U.S. dollars , reaching 129,127,201,358 U.S. dollars, a record high.
The number of active addresses on the chain fluctuates up
The number of active addresses refers to the number of different addresses where transactions occur every day (including the address where the first transaction occurred). The number of active addresses reflects the activity of market transactions to a certain extent, and is an important reference data for judging the number of Bitcoin audiences and currency price trends.
From the data point of view, the popularity of the Bitcoin chain has always fluctuated upward. So far, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has reached the highest number of 1,201,530, which is a 64% increase from the beginning of 2019.
The number of Bitcoin “giant whales” increases
Since 2019, the number of addresses holding 1,000 bitcoins has increased by 389, and the number of addresses holding 10,000 bitcoins has increased by 22.
The number of bitcoin ” giant whales ” (holding more than 1,000 bitcoins)_ has always been at an all-time high in the near future, and the most recent all-time high is 2,348 set on November 16.
Active transactions on the Bitcoin chain
From the perspective of on- chain transaction volume , the overall transaction volume on the Bitcoin network in 2020 will exceed 2019. In 2019, the transaction volume on the Bitcoin chain exceeded $673 billion. As of mid-November 2020, the transaction volume on the Bitcoin chain has reached nearly 750 billion U.S. dollars .
In addition, from the transaction volume in a single month in 2020, it can be seen that the transaction confidence in the Bitcoin market is relatively sufficient after the halving, and the transaction volume on the chain has gradually increased. As Bitcoin has continuously broken through the integer barriers of 16,000, 17,000 and even 18,000 in the recent past, the on-chain transaction volume this month has reached US$ 74.8 billion , which is expected to exceed the height of US$93.5 billion in July 2019.
The difficulty of the whole network once reached 20T
After the third Bitcoin halving , some people worry that Bitcoin miners will enter a spiral of death, that is, the decline in miners’ income will lead to the shutdown of mining machines, which will reduce the computing power. The reduction of computing power will further affect the price and cause more mines. The machine turns off. But in fact, after a brief decrease in the difficulty of Bitcoin mining at the beginning of June, the computing power has risen all the way, and the difficulty of mining has reached the highest value in history of 20T .
Bitcoin mining difficulty means increased force _ count (ie hash rate) _ increased due to increase of force is considered by the combined effects of many factors, summarized nothing less than two aspects: First, the layout of the miners more Many mining machines are turned on for mining. Second, miners have updated mining machines with higher computing power . The investment in the mining sector is large and the payback period is long. No matter what factor is affecting the increase in computing power, it points to the conclusion that miners are optimistic about the mining and Bitcoin market in the long run.
DeFi further expands Bitcoin’s ecology
With liquid mining and other new functions of open finance, DeFi has ignited the passion of the digital asset industry. From the data point of view, the monthly growth of Bitcoin anchor currency is obvious. Especially in September 2020, the DeFi ecosystem has flown into nearly 69,000 bitcoins . Although there has been a recent decline, with the help of bitcoin’s own user scale, holdings and transaction volume, as well as network effects, bitcoin anchors Coin is destined to develop in the future DeFi ecosystem.
In addition, the current Bitcoin in the DeFi ecosystem only accounts for about 0.8% of the Bitcoin circulation, and the Bitcoin anchor coin project on Ethereum is in a state of steady growth. More and more traditional institutions and large participants are Through it to participate in the DeFi market. As long as there are no black swan incidents like quotations or hackers, and the continued development of ecology and applications, the ecology of Bitcoin and Ethereum will benefit from it.
Bitcoin MVRV shows bullishness
MVRV is Bitcoin market value (Market Value) _ to value ratio (Realized Value) _ of. The latter can reflect the universal value consensus of market participants in a given period, that is, ” fair price .” As a result, MVRV can express the ratio of market price to “fair price”: a larger value indicates that the current price of Bitcoin is overestimated and a higher probability of price decline; a lower value indicates that its price is underestimated and a higher probability of price increase.
When the MVRV is below 3-3.5 , the market price is lower than its “fair value”, and Bitcoin has good room for appreciation. In the first quarter of 2019 and March 2020, MVRV once fell by 1, indicating that the market value of Bitcoin at that time was less than the “fair value” and its price was strongly undervalued. So then we also saw a sharp increase in the price of Bitcoin. As of now, Bitcoin MVRV has not touched the previous June 2019 high, and its price still has room to rise.
Meyer multiples prove market optimism
Mayer Multiple (Mayer Multiple) _ is an analytical indicator that measures the current price and historical trend of Bitcoin, which is obtained by the current price of Bitcoin/MA200 (200-day average) _.
Under normal circumstances, the Bitcoin Meyer multiple is usually seen as a signal that the bull market opens . If it breaks 1, it indicates that the market is optimistic and the Bitcoin price is bullish. Conversely, if the Meyer multiple is below 1, it means that the market is relatively negative.
Data source: charts.woobull.com
However, if the Mayer multiple reaches 2.4, it means that the market bubble is serious and the risk of collapse is increased. In June 2019, the Bitcoin price reached its annual highest value of US$13,764, and then fell into a downward trend. At that time, the Bitcoin Meyer multiple was 2.4.
After the plunge in March this year, the Bitcoin Meyer multiple once fell back to 0.574, and then broke through 1 on April 29. At the same time, it also started this year’s strong rise with a single-day increase of 16.1%. As of November 18, 2020, the Bitcoin Meyer multiple is 1.63 .
The futures market is booming
CME Bitcoin futures total positions_ ( total open positions )_data can be used to measure the degree of market activity. This data is obtained by adding up the values of all types of long positions and short positions. This data can show market investors The participation enthusiasm and investment confidence, so it can also be regarded as a ” popularity indicator .” The higher the value, the greater the amount of participants and funds in the market, which can be understood as a long-term positive signal for the corresponding asset.
Data source: CFTC
The latest issue of the CFTC _ (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) _ Positions Weekly Report shows that the total number of CME Bitcoin futures positions rebounded slightly from 11,278 to 11,311. This value has just been interrupted in the previous statistical cycle for the previous four weeks. Returning, the continued rise in the market has protected the market’s heat. Even though some types of accounts have been dealt with to reduce profit or risk control, there is still no sign of market macro heat abating.
Extended reading: CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report this week
Strong buy by the institution Grayscale
According to official data, Grayscale’s total inflow of funds for all products in the third quarter was US$1.05 billion , which was the largest quarterly inflow in history and set a new high for the third consecutive quarter. Bitcoin Trust’s inflow of funds in the third quarter was $ 719.3 million . As of November 18, 2020, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s asset under management (AUM)_ has surged from US$ 1.9 billion at the beginning of the year to US$ 10 billion , an increase of approximately 426% in 2020.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s holdings have been rising all the way this year, and the growth is very impressive. On November 16, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust once again increased its holdings of 3,812 BTC, an increase of 0.75%. According to statistics from the chain, as of now, the total holdings of Grayscale Bitcoin have reached 513,400 .
Data source: The Block
Grayscale Investment released a Bitcoin Investor Survey Research Report in October, showing that more than half (55%) of American investors surveyed are interested in buying Bitcoin, which is much higher than 36% in 2019. This trend is confirmed by the fact that this asset management agency is using an unstoppable force to set off the transformation of traditional financial funds into the Bitcoin market and further expand the original ecology of Bitcoin.
Source link: mp.weixin.qq.com
